Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Two weeks before the Sept. 1 Massachusetts primary vote, Mike Minogue holds a 2-to-1 lead over Brian Shortsleeve among likely Republican voters for the party’s nomination for governor, according to a new statewide University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.

Image

Minogue, former CEO of medical device company Abiomed, leads former Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority chief administrator Shortsleeve, 53-26, in the new survey, which was conducted Aug. 5-12.

“Minogue leads Shortsleeve by double digits among nearly every major constituency of the GOP electorate, including men (51-33), women (54-19), middle-aged voters (55-27), older voters (59-30) and conservatives (55-23),” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Perhaps most importantly for Minogue, he also holds substantial advantages among moderates (52-29) and independents (42-27). With just two weeks until Republican voters head to the polls and no final debate currently scheduled, these results suggest that Shortsleeve faces an uphill battle to close the gap and secure the Republican nomination.”

“Mike Minogue has gone from being a relatively unknown candidate to the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “The striking thing is not simply that he leads Brian Shortsleeve, but that he has consolidated support across most parts of the Republican primary electorate.”

La Raja notes that the poll finds Republican voters divided on the most crucial aspect that they look for in a gubernatorial candidate, and that it isn’t tied to the party’s standard-bearer in the White House.

“Massachusetts Republican primary voters are strongly supportive of President Donald Trump, but they don’t appear to be looking for a candidate simply on the basis of who is closest to Trump,” La Raja says. “They put agreement on the issues (21%), honesty and trustworthiness (17%), and challenging Democrats on Beacon Hill (13%) well ahead of a Trump endorsement (5%) when they tell us what they want in their nominee.”

Image

“Taken together, these findings suggest that Massachusetts Republicans are looking first to the candidates themselves—and their positions on the issues—rather than to President Trump for guidance in the gubernatorial primary,” Nteta says.

While the president has never polled highly in Massachusetts—his overall approval in the new poll lands at 29%, in-line with recent UMass polls going back to February 2025—he has generally polled above 80% among Bay State Republicans. In this latest poll, however, Trump’s approval among Massachusetts Republicans falls to 74%, his lowest since he recorded 76% approval rating in August 2020. The president’s waning popularity puts the state party in a difficult position, says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll.

“It is no surprise that Trump’s approval numbers continue to be anemic in deep-blue Massachusetts,” Theodoridis says. “In the past, with a Republican president this unpopular, the state GOP would have sought to actively distance itself from the White House, but with politics as nationalized as it is in today’s hyperpolarized America, state parties struggle to separate themselves from their national leaders.”

Ultimately, regardless of which GOP candidate proves victorious on Sept. 1, the party’s nominee appears to be in line for a difficult general election test come November, as the new poll shows Governor Maura Healey with substantial leads over each Republican.

“The challenge for Republicans is that a sour public mood isn’t enough,” La Raja explains. “More Massachusetts voters say the state is on the wrong track (45%) than the right direction (38%), yet Healey remains personally popular and holds roughly a 20-point advantage over either Republican candidate.”

“Since Charlie Baker left the governor’s office, Massachusetts Republicans have been searching for a candidate capable of defeating Democratic Governor Maura Healey,” Nteta says. “But our findings suggest that the Republican nominee will face a steep uphill climb this fall. Healey’s job approval rating remains strong at 56% among registered voters, with majorities of men, women, young, middle-aged, and older voters, as well as working- and middle-class and college-educated voters, approving of her performance. With the governor maintaining broad support across key demographic groups, our results suggest that regardless of whether Minogue or Shortsleeve emerges as the Republican nominee, defeating Healey in deep-blue Massachusetts will be a formidable challenge.”
 

Ballot questions

The UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll also surveyed respondents’ views on a number of initiatives and referendums that may appear on the ballot in November. While most of the potential ballot questions garner broad support among Massachusetts voters, the question to repeal the commonwealth’s marijuana legalization is rather widely rejected in the new poll.

“In 2016, Massachusetts voters legalized the possession, use, distribution, and cultivation of marijuana in the state, making the commonwealth the seventh state in the nation to legalize marijuana,” Nteta says. “Looking back on the 10-year anniversary of this decision, we find that a majority of voters (54%) view legalization in a positive light, with only 2 in 10 (22%) saying that legalization has been negative for the state. Given these favorable views, it is unsurprising that a majority of registered voters (55%) oppose the ballot question seeking to repeal marijuana legalization in the state. With the campaign for the ballot question still in its nascent stages and 1 in 10 voters remaining undecided, there remains time for the tables to turn and support for repeal to grow. But, with Trump voters (48%) and Republicans (45%) the only groups approaching majority support for the ballot question, convincing Massachusetts voters to reverse course on marijuana legalization appears to be a formidable challenge.”

As for the ballot questions that garner more substantial support from Bay State voters, same-day registration, public records accessibility, gun control and residential zoning reform all proved popular in the new poll.

“Over the past several years, the UMass Poll has consistently found very strong support among Massachusetts residents for same day registration, the policy that would allow people to register and vote on the same day, during early voting or on election day,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Consistent with these findings, our current survey suggests that the ballot question that would make same-day registration available in the state is very popular and may well be endorsed by voters on election day, as 69% of those surveyed said they would definitely or probably vote ‘yes’ on this initiative. Massachusetts currently allows same-day registration during the early voting period only. If endorsed by voters, the ballot initiative would put Massachusetts on a path toward joining 19 other states that allow residents to register and vote on Election Day.”

Rhodes also notes the popularity of the potential gun control ballot question.

“It sure looks like Massachusetts voters are poised to uphold current firearms rules that expanded the definition of assault-style firearms, created a statewide electronic firearms registration system, expanded red flag provisions, prohibited ghost guns, and restricted the carrying of firearms in schools, polling places, and government buildings,” Rhodes says. “Fully 70% of those surveyed said that they would definitely or probably vote ‘yes’ on the initiative. Far from having second thoughts on the legislation that was passed in July 2024 to significantly increase gun regulations, Massachusetts residents seem to be quite satisfied with this measure.”

The public records question is even more popular, garnering 84% support among the poll’s respondents.

“At a time when it’s difficult to find anything Democrats and Republicans agree on, transparency in state government comes pretty darn close,” La Raja says. “More than 8 in 10 voters across party lines like the public records ballot initiative backed by government transparency advocates. Voters want the governor and legislature subject to similar public-records laws that cover state agencies and local governments.”

Not quite as popular, but still drawing 59% support, is the question on residential zoning reform.

“With the state still in the midst of a housing crisis, median home prices in the commonwealth now exceeding $700,000, and new home construction slowed by permitting restrictions, many have turned to zoning reform as a potential way to jumpstart construction and lower housing costs,” Nteta explains. “One such reform—allowing the construction of single-family homes on lots of up to 5,000 square feet—enjoys widespread support among voters in the commonwealth, with close to 6 in 10 indicating that they would vote for the ballot question. Similar majorities across demographic and political groups express support for the measure, including a majority of Trump voters.

“Time will tell whether passage of this ballot question will help alleviate the state’s housing crisis,” he adds, “but our results suggest that voters across the commonwealth are willing to embrace zoning reform as a potential solution to one of the state’s most pressing problems.”

One ballot question appears to be a toss-up according to the new poll—the call for an all-party primary in which the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

“The proposal to replace party primaries with a single all-party primary starts with a lead according to our poll, but this race is far from over,” La Raja says. “Barely half of voters currently support it, relatively few are firmly committed, and nearly 1 in 5 remain undecided.

“Who likes the all-party primary?” he asks. “The natural constituency for an all-party primary isn’t the left or the right, it’s voters in the middle. Independents and moderates are among its strongest supporters, which makes sense for a reform that some think will weaken the role of the party base in choosing candidates for the general election, and potentially make officeholders less ideologically extreme.”

Economy, cost of living at top of voters’ minds

The new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll also finds voters deeply focused on the financial issues that face themselves and their families.

“With the nation and the commonwealth continuing to experience rising costs for gas, groceries, healthcare, housing, and utilities, it is no surprise that when asked to identify the state’s most important problem, Bay Staters have their minds focused on their precarious financial well-being, with ‘housing,’ ‘cost,’ and ‘affordability’ emerging as the three most frequently used words,” Nteta explains. “Bay Staters not only see affordability as a pressing problem, but also want Gov. Healey and the State Legislature to do something about it, with a whopping 39% of respondents identifying the cost of living as the one issue they want these elected officials to tackle in the coming year. With the midterm election only months away, Republican candidates may want to center affordability in their campaigns as a way to connect directly with voters’ most pressing concerns and potentially upset Democratic incumbents.”

“Massachusetts voters increasingly see the state’s problems through the lens of affordability,” La Raja says. “Housing, taxes and health care still matter, but cost of living has become the umbrella concern that ties many of these anxieties together. And while the Massachusetts economy may look healthy by some conventional measures, that’s not necessarily how voters experience it.”

“Massachusetts residents currently have a very negative view of the economy, whether they’re considering the state of the nation’s economy, the state of the economy in the commonwealth, or their own personal financial situation,” Rhodes says. “More than 70% of Massachusetts residents view the nation’s economy in ‘fair’ or ‘poor’ shape, and nearly two-thirds view the state’s economy as ‘fair’ or ‘poor.’ Although perceptions of personal financial circumstances are somewhat better, still, nearly 60% of Massachusetts residents believe that their personal circumstances are either ‘fair’ or ‘poor.’ Clearly, the war in Iran and the rising cost of gas, food, and other necessities are contributing to sharply negative views of the economy.”

“Voters make a clear distinction between the national economy, the Massachusetts economy and their own pocketbooks,” La Raja says. “They are most pessimistic about the country, somewhat less negative about Massachusetts, and more positive about their own finances. Economic dissatisfaction is real, but it isn’t experienced uniformly.”

Indeed, the new poll finds that those with less education and lower incomes are especially likely to perceive that the commonwealth is on the wrong track. “Given how important affordability issues are for Massachusetts residents, this makes a lot of sense,” Rhodes says. “The high cost of essential goods and services hits those at the lower end of the economic distribution especially hard.”
 

Methodology

For this University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll, YouGov interviewed 833 registered voters from Massachusetts, 462 of which were self-identified Democratic primary voters, providing two samples of interest. The initial 833 respondents

were matched down to a sample of 800 registered voters, yielding 445 Democratic primary voters, to produce the main dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) and subsetted on registered voters in the state, with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

For the main sample, the cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (2-categories), and education (4-categories), a 2-way stratification on race (2-categories) and education (4-categories), and a single stratification on home ownership to produce the final weight for the main sample.

For the 445 Massachusetts self-identified Democratic primary voters, a sampling frame of 2022 Vote Smart Massachusetts Democratic primary voters was employed. The cases were post-stratified on a three-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), and race (2-categories), to produce the final weight for this sample of Democratic primary voters.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.4% among all respondents and 5.8% among self-identified Democratic primary voters.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll