Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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A new statewide University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll finds Democratic U.S. Senator Ed Markey likely to withstand the challenge of U.S. Representative Seth Moulton in the Sept. 1 primary, as more than 4 in 5 self-identified Democratic primary voters approve of the senator’s work in Washington on behalf of the commonwealth.

The new survey of Bay State registered voters, conducted Aug. 5-12, finds Markey with a 28-point lead over Moulton (60-32), with just 7% of respondents undecided. The poll finds the incumbent carrying an 82% job approval rating and wide leads among nearly every category of respondents who expect to vote in the primary.

“With just two weeks until Massachusetts Democrats head to the polls, Sen. Markey enters the final stretch of the primary campaign with substantial advantages over Rep. Moulton across key Democratic constituencies, including women (65-24), liberals (71-25), people of color (49-29), college-educated voters (62-29), middle-aged voters (67-23), and younger voters (53-22),” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “These are many of the same constituencies that powered Markey to victory in his 2020 primary contest against Joe Kennedy III, and our results suggest that these core elements of the Massachusetts Democratic electorate remain firmly in Markey’s camp in 2026.”

“Markey’s sizable advantage emerges both because of popularity reflected in his approval ratings and dominant support among left-leaning voters,” explains Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Having the support of more than 7 in 10 self-described liberals makes someone very hard to beat in a Democratic primary.”

“During his congressional career, Markey has established a reputation as a reliable progressive,” explains Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll.“In contrast, Moulton is viewed as comparatively moderate. In some states, a reputation for progressivism could be a liability in a primary campaign when the other candidate stakes out a moderate position. However, Massachusetts is not the average state but is one of the most progressive states in the country. And the average Democratic primary voter is even further to the left than the average Massachusetts resident. In this context, Markey’s progressive reputation is a significant reason for his substantial advantage over Moulton in our survey.”

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“I don’t think this race is simply a battle between a progressive and a moderate, though,” adds Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Democratic voters certainly see Markey as the more liberal candidate, but relatively few say choosing the most progressive candidate is their top priority. Markey’s advantage appears broader. Voters see him as more honest, experienced, empathetic, hardworking and better able to represent them on the issues they care about.”

“While Moulton still has time to make his case to Democratic voters, he has considerable ground to make up in the final weeks of the campaign,” Nteta concludes. “Our results suggest that, absent a significant shift in the race, Moulton faces long odds of making Massachusetts political history by becoming the first primary challenger to defeat a sitting Democratic U.S. senator.”
 

Age: Just a number after all?

While there have been recent calls for younger representation in Washington, especially in the Senate, the new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll finds Markey’s age may be advantageous to the incumbent.

“Markey has attempted to turn one of Representative Seth Moulton’s central lines of attack—Markey’s age—into an argument for experience and effectiveness, and our results suggest that strategy is connecting with Democratic primary voters,” Nteta says. “An overwhelming 91% say Markey is the more experienced candidate, and when asked to describe Markey in a single word, ‘experienced’ is the second most frequently mentioned response. Rather than viewing Markey’s long tenure in Congress as a liability, Democratic primary voters appear to be seeing it as a strength—giving Markey another clear advantage in the final weeks of the campaign.”

“Markey is perceived as highly experienced and able to navigate Washington politics effectively—they view him as someone who knows how to get things done,” Rhodes says. “In a race against a challenger who does not have statewide experience, Markey’s decades of Washington experience are viewed as a significant advantage.”

“Moulton’s strongest argument turned out to be one that Democratic primary voters don’t seem especially interested in buying,” La Raja says. “Voters clearly see Moulton as the younger, more energetic candidate, but relatively few say a new generation of leadership is what matters most to them. Even though Markey, if he wins, will be 86 years old at the end of his term, for now he has succeeded in making his age look more like experience than a reason to replace him.

“Among Moulton supporters it is pretty clear why they like him,” La Raja adds. “They want a younger generation of leadership, think Markey has been in Washington too long, and often see Moulton as a more moderate alternative. The problem for Moulton isn’t that voters can’t tell the candidates apart, though—it’s that most voters who see those differences currently prefer Markey.”

“Ed Markey’s considerable lead in the Democratic primary race is attributable to several interrelated factors,” Rhodes summarizes. “First of all, as the incumbent, Markey enjoys considerable reputational advantages over Moulton—simply put, more Democratic primary voters know who he is. Second, Markey is not only well known, he’s popular. Our survey shows that Markey is perceived as reliably progressive, experienced and trustworthy. Third, Markey benefits from strong support from the Democratic Party and the high-profile endorsements from the state’s most prominent Democratic leaders. For Democratic primary voters who might have been on the fence, this strong signal of support from the state Democratic Party likely proved decisive.”
 

The Issues and Candidate Qualities that Matter to Voters

The new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll asked respondents their views on the issues guiding their votes and the qualities that mattered most in the two primary candidates.

“When asked which candidate quality is most important in deciding their vote, just 9% of self-identified Democratic primary voters say they prioritize a candidate who represents a new generation of leadership,” Nteta says. “That trails by a considerable margin to the importance that voters place on a candidate who best represents their views on the issues (24%), a candidate who will challenge President Donald Trump (13%), and a candidate who is the most honest and trustworthy (13%).

“Markey has emerged as the candidate who Democratic primary voters believe is best positioned to represent a broad cross-section of the party’s key constituencies, including women, progressives, labor union members, seniors and—even more notably given Moulton’s military background—veterans,” Nteta adds. “The one major constituency where Democratic primary voters see Moulton as the stronger voice is young people, but this advantage may offer limited electoral benefit in a primary given that younger voters have historically been among the least likely to participate in these elections. Taken together, the findings suggest that Markey’s appeal extends across many of the constituencies that are most important to forming a successful Democratic primary coalition, while Moulton’s strongest advantage lies with a group that has traditionally been less likely to turn out on primary Election Day.”

While previous UMass Amherst/WCVB polling showed voters prioritizing a desire to see their senator standing up against the White House, La Raja notes a shift in the latest survey. “Donald Trump still looms over this Democratic primary, but considerably less than he did last fall,” La Raja says. “In October, nearly one-third of Democratic primary voters said challenging Trump was the most important quality they wanted in a Senate candidate, but today that has fallen to about 1 in 5. Democratic voters may still want a fighter, but they seem to be asking what a candidate stands for beyond opposition to Trump.”

Rhodes notes that views on LGBTQ issues may also have impacted the primary race.

“Seth Moulton staked out a more conservative position on transgender issues relative to Ed Markey during the primary campaign. This is perceived as a significant difference between the two candidates by likely Democratic primary voters,” he explains. “Unfortunately for Moulton, this strategy doesn’t seem to be resonating well with likely voters in the primary. Transgender issues have become very important to the Democratic base. Our survey shows that many likely Democratic primary voters perceive Moulton as too conservative, and that some specifically oppose him due to his stance on transgender issues. In a statewide primary campaign with an electorate that is definitely left-of-center, Moulton’s tack to the right on transgender issues is a political liability.”

Nteta agrees, noting that Markey has consistently criticized Moulton for comments he made following Trump’s 2024 victory regarding the participation of transgender athletes in sports that align with their gender identity.

“Our results suggest that the issue has created a significant vulnerability for Moulton among Democratic primary voters,” Nteta says. “Nearly 7 in 10 Democratic primary voters (68%) say Markey is better positioned to represent the LGBTQ+ community, while voters also identify Moulton’s position on transgender athletes as one of the key differences between the two candidates. More broadly, 67% of Democratic primary voters say they would be less likely to support a candidate who takes positions opposing transgender rights or policies. Against this backdrop, it is perhaps unsurprising that Moulton apologized for his earlier comments during the most recent debate. But with Election Day approaching, our results suggest that the damage may already have been done. Markey has successfully turned Moulton’s position on transgender athletes into a broader question about which candidate better represents the values and priorities of Massachusetts Democrats, leaving Moulton with little time to repair the political damage.”
 

Caveats on State Primary Polling, Looking Toward November and Beyond

The team behind the UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll notes that while meticulous efforts and methodology sculpt all non-partisan polling, there are substantial complications to accurately surveying state primaries.

“Surprising recent Michigan and Wisconsin primary results serve as a reminder that accurately predicting such contests with polls is notoriously difficult,” Theodoridis says. “For starters, there are challenges inherent to sampling for polls at the state level. Then, determining which eligible voters are actually likely to turn out to vote in a primary election adds another layer of uncertainty. Finally, these contests can often feature late shifts, as voters sometimes don’t focus on the options until the very end.”

Regardless of who emerges victorious from the Sept. 1 primary, the new poll shows the Democratic nominee in a strong position to take his seat in the Capitol’s Senate Chamber.

“Outside of the 2010 special election that sent Republican Scott Brown to the U.S. Senate, Massachusetts voters have consistently favored Democratic candidates for federal office. Our results suggest that this pattern is unlikely to change in the 2026 Senate race,” Nteta says. “Both Markey and Moulton hold double-digit leads over Republican nominee John Deaton, underscoring the formidable challenge facing Republicans in their effort to capture a U.S. Senate seat in the commonwealth. Taken together, the findings suggest that Massachusetts remains firmly in the Democratic column heading into the general election, with the Republican nominee facing substantial ground to make up.”

Looking even further into the future, Nteta sees a potential silver lining for Moulton should he lose the primary to Markey.

“Our findings show that the campaign may provide Moulton with a valuable opportunity for his political future,” he says. “With Markey pledging that a 2026 victory would be his final term in the Senate, Moulton emerges alongside Governor Maura Healey and U.S. Representative Ayanna Pressley as a leading potential contender for the Democratic nomination in 2032. Moulton is also becoming better known across the Bay State, with 7 in 10 likely Democratic primary voters saying they have heard ‘a great deal’ or ‘some’ about him in recent months. Voters frequently describe Moulton as ‘young,’ ‘moderate,’ ‘good,’ ‘energetic’ and ‘smart.’ So, while the 2026 campaign may not result in Moulton as this year’s Democratic nominee, it appears to be raising his statewide profile and positioning him for a potentially significant role in Massachusetts Democratic politics in the years to come.”
 

Methodology

For this University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll, YouGov interviewed 833 registered voters from Massachusetts, 462 of which were self-identified Democratic primary voters, providing two samples of interest. The initial 833 respondents

were matched down to a sample of 800 registered voters, yielding 445 Democratic primary voters, to produce the main dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) and subsetted on registered voters in the state, with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

For the main sample, the cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (2-categories), and education (4-categories), a 2-way stratification on race (2-categories) and education (4-categories), and a single stratification on home ownership to produce the final weight for the main sample.

For the 445 Massachusetts self-identified Democratic primary voters, a sampling frame of 2022 Vote Smart Massachusetts Democratic primary voters was employed. The cases were post-stratified on a three-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), and race (2-categories), to produce the final weight for this sample of Democratic primary voters.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.4% among all respondents and 5.8% among self-identified Democratic primary voters.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll