Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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With Election Day two weeks away, incumbent Democratic Governor Maura Healey holds a 25-percentage point lead in her re-election race over Republican challenger Mike Minogue, according to a new statewide University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.

The new poll of 800 registered voters, which was conducted Oct. 5-12, shows Healey leading Minogue 57%-32%, with independent candidate Andrea James drawing 6% in a distant third.
 

Healey’s strengths

“Gov. Healey leads across the state’s gender, income, racial, and generational groups, with women, middle-aged voters, and voters of color favoring her over Minogue by wide margins,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “She has also maintained strong support among moderates and independents, two key voting blocs that have historically played an important role in Republican gubernatorial victories in the commonwealth. While Minogue still has time to make the race more competitive, Healey’s broad-based support puts her in a strong position to retain the corner office on Beacon Hill.”

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“By far most importantly, Healey enjoys overwhelming support among women, with 66% favoring her compared to 24% preferring Minogue; among men, Healey only holds a 47-42 advantage,” explains Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Healey also enjoys very strong support among commonwealth voters with a college degree or more—among those with a college degree, Healey has a 57-33 edge, and among those with a postgraduate degree, her lead is even larger, 73-24. In a high educational attainment state like Massachusetts, these lopsided figures are a huge advantage. It’s likely that Healey enjoys such strong advantages among these groups because she has done a good job linking Minogue to positions that are very unpopular with these constituencies, such as his opposition to abortion and support for ICE.”

“Defeating an incumbent Democratic governor in a historically blue state was always going to be a tall task for a Republican candidate, but that challenge is compounded by Healey’s continued popularity,” Nteta adds. “Nearly 6 in 10 voters (58%) approve of the job Healey is doing as governor, her highest approval rating since February 2025. Her approval extends across men, women, generations, income levels, and racial groups, with only independents (40%), voters with some college experience (48%), Republicans (12%), conservatives (17%) and Trump voters (16%) expressing approval levels below a majority.”
 

Minogue’s hurdles

For Minogue to overcome the gap before Nov. 3, the new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll indicates he will need to prove himself a better alternative to a popular incumbent, and find a way to separate himself in voters’ minds from a deeply unpopular president.

“Mike Minogue faces a basic political problem, in that voters see very little distance between him and Donald Trump,” explains Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Across issues ranging from abortion to taxes, more than 8 in 10 place the two men in the same policy camp and both Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly see the resemblance. Being so attached to an unpopular president is unlikely to work in a state where Trump lost by more than 25 points.”

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La Raja says that the words voters used when asked to describe Minogue “say a lot about his campaign.”

“The most prominent words are ‘MAGA,’ ‘Republican,’ and ‘Conservative,’ and close behind are ‘Unknown,’ ‘Unsure,’ and ‘Not,’” La Raja explains. “Less than three weeks before Election Day, many voters either don’t know who Minogue is or know him only through his party and his ties to Trump. A challenger in Massachusetts—especially a Republican in a liberal-leaning state—needs to define himself on his own terms. Right now, voters are defining him by the national Republican brand.”

Projected turnout and voters views on the issues

“It’s looking to be another high-turnout election in Massachusetts in November, and those who plan to vote are very enthusiastic about doing so,” Rhodes says. “Indeed, 85% of those who plan to vote say they are somewhat or very enthusiastic about turning out. Typically, when residents rate the economy relatively poorly, the supporters of the party out of power (right now, Republicans in Massachusetts politics) are most enthusiastic about voting, because they see an opportunity in poor economic conditions to win control of state government. Interestingly, however, our survey shows that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans, enjoying a 12-percentage point advantage among those ‘very enthusiastic’ to vote. It’s likely that Democratic enthusiasm is tied to the expectation, borne out by our survey, that the party will retain unified control of state government after the elections.”

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“Economic concerns are top of mind for Massachusetts voters, with 4 in 10 (42%) identifying the cost of living as the most important factor in their vote for governor,” Nteta says. “Not surprisingly, since becoming the Republican nominee, Minogue has consistently blamed Healey for the state’s ongoing housing crisis, the purported exodus of residents from the commonwealth, and rising grocery, gas and utility prices. Healey, in turn, has sought to shift the blame to President Trump, pointing to his trade policies and decision to go to war with Iran as key drivers of the state’s economic challenges. Our results suggest that voters are more likely to hold Trump responsible, with a majority (55%) identifying the president as most responsible for rising prices for groceries, gas, utilities and housing.”

Nteta says that while Minogue has consistently labelled Healey’s tenure as governor a “failure” on the campaign trail and has argued that she has broken her promises to improve the economic well-being of Massachusetts residents, these shots have not landed with voters.

“While majorities say Healey has broken her 2022 campaign promises to cut taxes (56%) and reduce the cost of living (61%), and ‘liar’ is among the words voters most frequently use to describe her, these criticisms have not translated into an advantage for Minogue on the issues themselves,” Nteta says. “Our findings suggest that despite voters’ lingering concerns about the governor’s record on taxes and the cost of living, Minogue’s attacks just aren’t translating into support for his candidacy.”

“Only 10% blame Healey for high prices and just 4% blame the State Legislature,” Rhodes adds. “If anything, it’s looking like Massachusetts voters may be taking their frustration about inflation out on the GOP in the fall elections, and here in Massachusetts, residents clearly trust Healey over Minogue on both the cost of living (57%-33%) and taxes (55%-35%).”

Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, points out that Healey holds similar leads over Minogue on other issues across the board.

“Candidates are supposed to focus on the issues on which voters trust them most,” Theodoridis says. “That puts Minogue in a tough spot and gives Healey a lot of options, because voters trust Healey over Minogue by 20 to 30 points on all of the issues we asked about—from abortion (+31) and education (+29) to health care (+26) and even immigration (+23) and crime (+20).”
 

Down-ballot races

Looking at other statewide elections, the new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll shows Democrats poised for a comfortable day on Nov. 3, with the incumbents’ leads over their Republican and Libertarian challengers ranging from 24 to 49 points.

“Senator Ed Markey won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in a landslide over challenger Seth Moulton, and Markey seems poised to make it 2-for-2 this year and return to the Senate as our poll shows him with more than a 25-point lead over Republican John Deaton,” Theodoridis says.

“Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate (+27), secretary of state (+33), attorney general (+24), treasurer (+25) and auditor (+49) all hold sizable leads over their Republican challengers, suggesting that national politics may be outweighing economic discontent in shaping the state’s statewide races,” Nteta says.
 

Ballot questions

Voters enter their polling stations on Nov. 3, will also be considering nine ballot questions. The latest UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll asked respondents their views on each of the questions facing voters, as well as their thoughts on the ballot question process itself.

“Question 1 is about as close to a sure thing as we see in ballot politics—84% of voters say they would vote yes, and only 6% say no,” La Raja says of the question that would expand public records. “Support crosses party lines: 85% of Democrats, 90% of Republicans and 73% of independents back it. Voters across the spectrum clearly believe that Beacon Hill should be held to the same transparency standards as every other part of state government.”

Question 2, which centers on public counsel collective bargaining, holds 53% support, with 19% opposed, and 28% undecided or unsure of what the question means. “The large number of undecided or unsure shows this is a difficult and narrow issue for the public to think about on a ballot question,” La Raja says.

Rhodes notes the potential earthquake Question 3—the establishment of a single, all-party primary—may have, as the measure has a plurality (49%) of support, with 39% opposed.

“Massachusetts voters may be on the brink of dramatically altering how elections are conducted in the commonwealth,” Rhodes explains. “Our survey shows that almost half of voters plan to definitely (20%) or probably (29%) vote yes on a ballot question that would replace the current system of separate primary elections for Democrats and Republicans with a single primary election for all candidates, in which the top two candidates—regardless of party—advance to the general election. Of course, things could break the other way—14% say they probably will vote no, and another 25% say they definitely will do so, so a lot turns on the 9% who say they are undecided. However, if this ballot question passes, it would represent a monumental change in Massachusetts elections, potentially producing general election campaigns in which Democrats run against Democrats and Republicans run against Republicans for election to office.”

Rhodes is also intrigued by the potential ramifications of Question 4, which would allow same-day registration on Election Day and has two-thirds support among the poll’s respondents.

“For several years, the UMass Poll has shown that a strong majority of Massachusetts residents supports the enactment of Election Day Registration, which would enable eligible individuals to register and vote on Election Day,” he says. “For a variety of reasons, state legislators have declined to enact the measure. But now, it appears, Massachusetts voters are prepared to take matters into their own hands. Our survey suggests that Question 4, the ballot question to enact Election Day Registration, could secure approval at the polls this November. Forty-one percent say they will definitely vote yes on the measure, and another 26% say they probably will do so. Only small minorities would probably (9%) or definitely (17%) vote no. If the measure is endorsed, Massachusetts will join 20 other states that allow people to register and vote on Election Day.”

Questions 5 (tax revenues), 6 (Nature for All Fund) and 7 (residential zoning), hold 58%, 70% and 65% support, respectively in the new poll.

“Supporters of repealing legal marijuana sales face a steep uphill climb,” La Raja says of the poll’s findings for Question 8. “A decade after legalization, Massachusetts voters show little appetite for going back, as 61% say they would vote no on repealing recreational marijuana sales, and 47% say they would definitely vote no. Only 31% of voters support repeal. Support for repeal is strongest among Republicans (44%) and conservatives (46%), but it falls well short of a majority in every major group we surveyed, including voters who don’t use marijuana (41%).”

Finally, it appears that the Bay State’s gun control laws will remain as the new poll found widespread support for Question 9.

“Since the passage of the state’s historic gun control law in 2024, advocates of gun rights have argued that the law not only violates their Second Amendment rights but also runs counter to the preferences of Massachusetts residents,” Nteta explains. “In an effort to overturn the law, they turned to the ballot rather than the legislature. However, 7 in 10 voters say they will vote yes on Question 9, compared to just 21% who oppose it, while another 10% are undecided or confused about the measure. Support for Question 9 extends across the commonwealth, with Republicans, conservatives, and Trump voters the only groups in which support falls below a majority. With so little opposition to Question 9, Massachusetts appears poised to retain its status as the state with the nation’s strictest gun control laws.”

With the litany of questions on this year’s ballot, one might think Bay State voters might have ballot question exhaustion, but the new poll found that nearly 3 in 4 support the process.

“Most respondents tell us ballot initiatives allow voters to address important problems that elected officials often fail to (74%) and that the process reflects an ideal form of democracy (58%),” Theodoridis explains. “Still, there are some concerns: 50% of respondents tell us that the process is controlled by special interests, 64% say that the wording of questions is too complicated, and nearly half (48%) believe out-of-state groups have too much influence over the ballot initiative process.”
 

Methodology

For this University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll, YouGov interviewed 852 registered voters in the state of Massachusetts. The respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame of registered voters in Massachusetts on gender, age, race and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) sample, restricted to Massachusetts residents who were registered to vote.

Cases were selected by stratified sampling from this subset, with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacement (using the person weights on the public use file). The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as gender, age, race and education to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.2%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll