Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Fewer than one-quarter of Americans view the U.S. economy in a positive light and the nation heading in the right direction, according to a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll.

“While President Donald Trump continues to paint a positive picture of the health of the nation’s economy and his administration’s efforts to tackle the affordability crisis, Americans do not share his optimistic view of the state of the economy,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Amidst a surge in gas prices, a volatile stock market, and rising costs for food, housing and childcare, we find that only 23% of Americans rate the national economy as ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ an 8-percentage point decline since July. More troublingly for Trump, 3 in 4 (76%) Americans view the national economy as ‘fair’ or ‘poor,’ a 7-percentage point increase since July. With the midterm election only months away, Trump will need to work on turning around the nation’s economic fortunes or run the risk that voters will turn to the Democratic Party for solutions to fix the nation’s economic woes.”

Nteta notes that the pall of the nation’s economic gloom hangs over Americans of all walks of life. “Unlike many issues upon which we see clear, persistent and wide divides along generational, partisan, gender, racial and class lines, on the economy, our results suggest that Americans are united in their dim view of the nation’s economic prospects,” Nteta says. “Majorities of men, women, young people, older people, white people and people of color all express negative views of the national economy. In what should set off alarms throughout the White House, skeptical views of the national economy are also shared by majorities of Republicans (53%), conservatives (53%) and Trump voters (55%).”

“According to voters, the overall picture of the economy is bleak and worsening,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Thirty-seven percent of Americans now rate the national economy as ‘poor,’ which has essentially doubled since October 2024 (19%) when Joe Biden was still in office. Lower income earners – those making under $40,000 – are especially concerned, with 40% of them rating the economy as poor. Since the economy is so important in decisions at the ballot box, these numbers tell a dangerous story for Republicans running for Congress.”

“In 2024, in the midst of elevated cost of living the American people looked to Donald Trump to make the economy great once again,” Nteta says. “In the 15 months since taking office, a range of policies Trump ostensibly enacted to lower everyday costs, most notably tariffs, has seemingly failed for Americans as majorities report that they have instead experienced increased costs.”

La Raja agrees, saying, “Voters have said since Joe Biden was in office that the cost of living was going up too much, and our poll shows these concerns have shot up considerably. The biggest headline is gas – 91% say gas prices have increased, a staggering jump from 41% in July 2025. That 50-point swing in a single wave is extraordinary and almost certainly reflects real price movement from the war. Utilities are also surging in public perception – 80% say costs have increased, up from 63% in July 2025 – and groceries moved from 70% to 77%. These are all expenses Americans deal with on a daily basis, which helps explain Trump’s declining approval numbers.”

“When talking about the affordability crisis, President Trump points to Biden and the Democratic Party as those most responsible for the nation’s economic predicament, but Americans tend to believe the ‘buck stops’ with the current occupant of the White House,” Nteta says, “More than half of Americans (53%) say Trump is most responsible for the rise in costs for goods and services. With the exception of men (49%), Republicans (20%), conservatives (22%), Trump voters (23%) and supporters of the MAGA movement, a majority of Americans across demographic and political groups share this sentiment which suggests that the current affordability crisis is viewed widely as one of President Trump’s making.”
 

A nation on the “wrong track”

The latest UMass Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents, conducted March 20-25, finds identical discontent among the populace about where the country is headed, with just 23% of respondents saying the U.S. is headed in the “right direction.”

“Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country, including those in Trump’s coalition,” La Raja says. “Since last year, the percentage of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track went from 54% to 65%. Most striking is that the percentage of people saying this who voted for Trump has doubled, moving from just 16% last year to 32% now. One-third of Trump’s own voters now have serious doubts about the country’s direction.”

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“In his discussions of foreign policy, the stock market and the economy, President Trump frequently touts the myriad of ways in which the nation is ‘winning’ and thus returning to its rightful position as a global economic, political, cultural and military superpower. However, the American people do not seem to be following Trump’s lead,” Nteta says. “Two-thirds of Americans report that things in the country have gone ‘pretty seriously off the wrong track, an 11-point rise since we polled in April 2025. With the nation at war with Iran, prices continuing to steadily rise, and the federal government in the midst of a partial shutdown, many Americans, unsurprisingly, view the nation’s future with skepticism. Whether President Trump is listening and whether he will change course and work to address what are the clear concerns of the American people will likely determine not only his party’s chances in the upcoming midterm election, but whether he can fulfill his campaign promise.”

“The independent collapse is significant,” La Raja notes. “Independents who say the country is on the ‘wrong track’ are at 70%, up from 57% in April 2025. They represent a group that Trump and Republicans need to hold for the midterm elections, but they have moved 13 points in the wrong direction over the past year.”

Nteta agrees, pointing to the open-ended question asked in the poll about the most important issue facing voters.

“Amid increasing gas, food and housing prices, it comes as no surprise that the nation’s precarious economic situation is clearly on the minds of Americans, with the ‘economy’ emerging as the most frequently mentioned word to describe the nation’s most pressing issue,” he says. “As Americans continue to experience the economic stress associated with rising costs, elected officials in Washington, and in particular President Trump and Republicans in Congress, will need to better address these clear economic concerns or likely will face the wrath of voters in November.”

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Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, notes that Trump and Republicans may also be concerned by the poll showing an enthusiasm gap between the two political parties.

“As we head into the midterm elections, Democrats appear to have the wind in their sails, despite the party’s generally weak brand,” he says. “We find Democrats benefitting from a substantial enthusiasm gap – nearly half of Democrats (49%) tell us they are ‘very’ enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 elections and another 21% say they are ‘somewhat’ enthusiastic. Just 34% of Republicans say they are ‘very’ enthusiastic, with another 29% are ‘somewhat’ enthusiastic. We also find low levels of overall enthusiasm (29%) among independents.”
 

Views on the SAVE Act and election changes

The new UMass Amherst Poll also asked respondents of their views on voting rights and the SAVE Act, and the results show a populace with conflicted views.

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“According to our survey, a majority of Americans (51%) say that they support requiring people to show proof of citizenship, such as a birth certificate or passport, to register to vote,” Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, says of the central tenet of the SAVE Act. “However, this masks a huge partisan and ideological divide in support. For nearly two decades, Republican leaders have claimed that fraudulent voting threatens the integrity of American elections, while Democrats have contended that requiring voter credentials will reduce ballot access, especially for vulnerable populations. This difference in party messaging is reflected in public opinion, where 88% of Republicans, but just 25% of Democrats, support this policy.”

“The SAVE Act has majority support nationally, driven by near-unanimous Republican backing and surprising support among independents and moderates, but beneath that headline number lies a more complicated picture,” La Raja says. “A substantial portion of the law’s own supporters express reservations about its potential real-world consequences for denying the vote to eligible citizens, such as people of color, students and older people. Americans may support the principle of citizenship verification in the abstract while remaining genuinely uncomfortable with who gets caught in the net.”

“There are very large differences in support across racial and ethnic groups, as well,” Rhodes says. “Fifty-six percent of whites support this measure, but only 39% of African Americans and 43% of Latinos do. The limited support for requiring people to show proof of citizenship to vote among communities of color reflects two important dynamics – one historical and one contemporary. Historically, African Americans and Latinos have faced significant legalized discrimination in seeking to access the ballot, and their attitudes toward current policies are likely informed by this experience. Secondly, African American and Latino citizens are less likely to have access to official documents proving their citizenship, meaning this policy may disproportionately limit their access to voting, which may affect their support for this measure.”

Rhodes says that “a likely reason” for majority public support for requiring people to show proof of citizenship, such as a birth certificate or passport, to register to vote “is that Americans overestimate how many Americans actually have access to this document. In fact, only about half of Americans have access to a passport, for example,” he says. “However, Americans’ misperceptions about the prevalence of access to proof of citizenship documents likely inflates support for this measure.”

Rhodes also points out the noticeable gender gap in public support for the SAVE Act – 55% of men support the legislation, versus 47% of women.

“This likely reflects, in part, the reality that men are much more likely to have necessary documents than women,” he says. “About 8 in 10 married women take their husband’s last name. Thus, for these women, a valid birth certificate could not be used to prove citizenship, and they would have to obtain a less-common alternative. For some women, at least, recognition that requiring people to show proof of citizenship to vote would disproportionately burden them and depresses their support for this proposed measure.”

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“Trump’s claims of voter fraud have become pretext for several attempts to have the Federal government play a role in the administration of the upcoming midterms, and elections more broadly,” Theodoridis says. “From seizing ballots and seeking to impose voter identification requirements to calls for nationalizing elections and an executive order creating a national eligible voter list, Trump has sought to shift control of elections to Washington, D.C., instead of the states. We find very limited support for this fundamental shift – fewer than 1 in 5 Americans (19%), and virtually no Democrats and independents, favor the federal government taking over elections. We also find that while Republicans who identify as MAGA favor a federal takeover, non-MAGA Republicans do not.”

The new poll once again asked respondents about potential changes to the mechanics of elections, including mail-in voting, same-day registration and ID requirements at the polls. Requiring government-issued photo ID is the most popular measure surveyed, at 64% support, while 58% support allowing people to register and vote on Election Day and making mail-in voting available to all registered voters draws 55% support.

“The poll reveals two distinct visions of electoral access among Americans,” La Raja says. “Broad coalitions back measures that secure the ballot – voter ID draws near-universal (91%) Republican support and considerable (47%) Democrat support – while measures that expand access divide sharply along partisan lines. The one exception is same-day registration, where nearly half of Republicans (45%) join large Democratic majorities (78%) in expressing support, suggesting some potential common ground on at least one front.”
 

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents nationally was conducted by YouGov March 20-25. YouGov interviewed 1,072 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories) to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.5%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll