New UMass Amherst Poll Finds ‘Project 2025’ Policy Proposals Wildly Unpopular Among Americans

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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As the presidential campaigns enter the final week before the election, a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found that the policy proposals contained within the “Project 2025” playbook remain wildly unpopular among Americans.

“When queried to rate Project 2025 from 0 to 100, Americans on average give Project 2025 a ‘25’ on the feeling thermometer – the lowest score given to groups, individuals and institutions in our current polling,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Additionally, among those who have heard at least ‘some’ about Project 2025, when asked to describe the conservative playbook, negative words such as ‘evil,’ ‘conservative,’ ‘dangerous’ and ‘fascism’ are frequently used. Given the effectiveness of her attacks on Project 2025, expect Vice President Kamala Harris in the remaining week of the campaign to continue to paint Project 2025 as a clear and present danger to the nation’s democracy in hopes of prevailing in what will likely be a historically close election.”

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Nteta notes that while Project 2025 is intended to provide former President Donald Trump with a plan to restructure the nation’s bureaucracy and achieve long-desired conservative policy changes, Trump has for months attempted to distance himself from any connection to it. 

“Our polling suggests that this strategy may be a good one, as strong majorities of Americans express opposition to key tenets of the conservative playbook,” Nteta says. “Six in 10 of the survey’s respondents oppose eliminating the Department of Education and firing civil servants and replacing them with political appointees loyal to the president, a majority opposes cutting funding for renewable energy research and investment, and a whopping 74% oppose restricting women’s access to contraception. The jury has decided on Project 2025 and Americans are clearly not in favor of the changes that the conservative agenda proposes. Whether Trump’s association with Project 2025 will be enough to keep the former president from regaining the White House will be decided in a few short days.”

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, points to the disapproval Americans show to these and other policies in the playbook.

“Despite policy recommendations in Project 2025 to reduce federal protections for lesbians, gay and transgender people, any such effort would face significant political pushback with 47% of Americans opposed – and 42% of women strongly so – compared to 26% of Americans who support such a policy,” La Raja says. “Americans also do not support Project 2025’s goal of firing federal employees – they overwhelmingly favor a professional civil service and one that is protected from political appointments with 68% opposed to firing thousands of federal employees and replacing them with political appointees loyal to the president, while just 11% support it.

“Attacks against DEI are also not very popular,” he continues. “Project 2025, for example, proposes to ban federal DEI initiatives, but just 36% of Americans support this policy and women are especially skeptical, with just 28% supporting it compared to 46% of men. And, finally, Americans may not be ready to give up the gas pump, but they certainly favor research and investment in renewable energy, contrary to a goal stated in Project 2025 of cutting such things. A majority of Americans (52%) oppose cutting funding for renewable energy and investment, while just 22% support this cut.”

Immigration and the “Great Replacement Theory”

“Don’t believe anyone who says that Americans have simple, clear views on immigration policy,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll. “In fact, they have complicated – if not contradictory – views. For example, 47% say they want to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants, but 54% say they want unauthorized immigrants to have a path to citizenship if they meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes. What’s going on? Immigration is a complex issue that raises a whole host of conflicting emotions, from fears about demographic change to empathy toward asylum seekers, refugees and those seeking a better life. No wonder people have complicated views.”

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Nteta agrees, saying, “While pluralities of Americans express support for conservative immigration policies designed to address the crisis at the nation’s southern border that include the deportation the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the nation, building a wall on the border with Mexico (47%) and using the U.S. military to enforce federal immigration law (49%), the public is clearly of two minds on immigration as we find that majorities of the public also want the federal government to allow refugees and asylum seekers the ability to stay in the U.S. once they arrive and express support for a path to citizenship for the nation’s eleven million undocumented immigrants. With the Democratic Party and Harris supportive of the more inclusive policies and the Republican Party and Trump in favor of the more antagonistic solutions to the issue of immigration, the future of the nation’s immigration policy is likely going to come down to who emerges as victorious in one short week.”

“Immigration has rapidly become a generational issue, with huge divides based on age,” Rhodes notes. “Young people are much more likely than older people to support policies to assist asylum seekers and refugees, and to provide a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants. Meanwhile, strong majorities of those 55+ want mass deportation, a wall with Mexico, and immigration enforcement by armed soldiers.”

Since 2022, the UMass Amherst Poll has surveyed American’s views on not just immigration policies, but also the tenets of the “Great Replacement Theory” espoused by many on the political right, which claims that the growth in the number of immigrants in the U.S. means the country is in danger of losing its culture and identity.

One of the central points of the theory is that “some elected officials want to increase immigration in order to bring in obedient voters who will vote for them.” The latest poll has found an increase in the percentage of respondents who believe in this idea, with 42% now agreeing, up from 37% in October 2022. Republican belief in the idea has increased from 66% in 2022 to 73% today.

“Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and other prominent conservative personalities have endorsed the xenophobic conspiracy that elected officials are increasing immigration in order to ‘replace’ current Americans,” Rhodes says. “And a startling share of Americans – about 42% – agree. In an era of rapid demographic change and social uncertainty, many people are looking for someone to blame. As has often been the case in American history, immigrants – and the politicians who seek to support them – easily become convenient scapegoats.”

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“More than 2 in 5 Americans believe arguments made by Donald Trump that Democrats favor increased immigration because they believe it will create a reliable voting bloc despite the fact that an increasing number of Latino voters are voting for the Republican Party these days,” La Raja notes.

“Are Republicans following the leader?” Nteta asks. “In recent weeks, Trump has made waves when discussing immigrant newcomers to the nation. Whether calling immigrants animals or terrorists, declaring that immigrants are poisoning the blood of the nation, voicing his concern that immigrants commit crimes because of their genes, or that immigrants are eating dogs and cats, the rhetoric has become increasingly extreme and eerily reminiscent of the dehumanizing language employed by the Nazi Party during the 1930s. While Trump has amplified and repeated this language on the campaign trail, these sentiments are unpopular among most Americans, with clear majorities expressing opposition and strong opposition to these statements. However, in what is chilling news for the future of an inclusive and accepting democracy, approximately 4 in 10 Republicans believe that immigrants are poisoning the blood of the nation (38%), that many immigrants are terrorists (46%) and that immigrants want to rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill American citizens (37%). In further evidence that a non-trivial portion of Republicans are embracing Trump’s sentiments on immigration, one-third (33%) believe the long-debunked conspiracy theory that immigrants are eating dogs and cats. Whether this is a reflection of a desire to follow the directives of their preferred candidate or evidence of an authoritarian turn in our politics remains to be seen, but what is clear is that these viewpoints have found a home in conservative and Republican circles.”

Rhodes agrees, saying “Donald Trump has made increasingly disturbing xenophobic comments about immigrants on the campaign trail. Why? Although most Americans reject his harsh anti-immigrant appeals, there is a market for them. Trump is likely betting he can boost turnout among these intensely xenophobic Americans. But it’s a huge gamble, as large majorities of Americans reject these odious claims. Trump may well be alienating more people than he wins over.”

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Ultimately, Nteta says, the polling shows that “the more things change the more they stay the same.” 

“In the 1920s, immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe faced rampant prejudice, racism and discrimination with American citizens, elected officials and scientists declaring that these new European immigrants posed a threat to the physical safety of citizens and to the purity of American blood and stock,” he explains. “The anti-immigrant sentiment resulted in the passage of the nation’s most restrictive immigration policy in history that led to a precipitous decline in immigration from these nations. Fast forward 100 years and, once again, we find a non-trivial portion of Americans reacting in a xenophobic fashion to immigrant newcomers with close to 2 in 10 believing that immigrants poison the blood of the nation, pose a threat to the physical safety of citizens and are terrorists. Whether we will see a return to more restrictive immigration policies is still to be determined, but those who desire a more welcoming nation for immigrant newcomers are likely concerned by the turn back to the nation’s darker days.”

Rhodes says the key to combatting xenophobia and bigotry may be through education.

“Why does education matter?” he asks. “One important reason is that it promotes greater empathy and understanding of the position of others. This shows in our poll’s findings on attitudes toward immigration – Americans with more education are noticeably more likely to reject xenophobic statements such as ‘immigrants are poisoning the blood of the country’ or ‘many immigrants are terrorists.’”

Trans Athletes… and Elon Musk

The University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll also once again surveyed Americans’ views on transgender rights.

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“The rights of transgender people have become a prominent political issue in recent years,” Rhodes explains. “Many Americans feel considerable anxiety about this issue, and seek to impose limitations on transgender rights as a way of maintaining traditional gender boundaries. Perhaps most prominently, a plurality of Americans – 47% – wants to prohibit young people from participating on a sports team that does not match the gender they were assigned at birth.”

La Raja agrees, saying, “The question regarding transgender athletes remains highly contested in the U.S. While slightly less than a majority of Americans support legislation that bans transgender youth from playing school sports that match their gender identity, 25% are opposed to a ban and 29% did not offer an opinion.”

Finally, for the first time the poll also asked respondents’ about their thoughts on billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk.

“Despite having a name that suggests a warm, attractive scent,” La Raja says, “neither men nor women have particularly warm feelings for Elon Musk. In fact, females are less favorable to him. On a 100-point scale with higher values meaning more warm feelings, women place Elon Musk at 36 compared to men who put him at 42.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll was conducted by YouGov Oct. 11-16. YouGov interviewed 1,816 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,500 to produce the final dataset. This consisted of two samples: A Main sample of 1,224 individuals from the U.S. general population matched down to 1,000, and an Oversample of 592 women from the U.S. general population matched down to 500. 

Respondents in each sample were matched to a sampling frame on gender (main sample only), age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the oversample of women respondents, this sampling frame was based on a women subset of the modeled frame of U.S. adults. In each sample, the matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender (main sample only), race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership (main sample only). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights for each sample were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender (main sample only), age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories). Both samples were the combined and an additional post-stratification on gender, 2020 presidential vote and political party identification were conducted separately to produce an overall sample weight. In addition, a second weight was produced for the women in the overall sample (1,036). This was produced with a similar process.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.1% for all respondents and 3.8% for female respondents.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll