Harris Leads Trump 48-46 Nationally and 50-43 Among Women, According to New UMass Amherst Poll

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

A new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a two-point lead nationally over former President Donald Trump, 48-46, with two weeks remaining until Election Day. The poll, which was conducted Oct. 11-16 and included an oversample of women, also found that women prefer Harris, 50-43.

“For only the second time in the nation’s history, voters have an opportunity to elect a major party female candidate to the country’s highest office,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Thus, it is no shock that women have emerged as some of Vice President Harris’ most ardent supporters with Harris enjoying a seven-point lead among women over former President Trump. But why, specifically, do we see the strong female support for Harris? Across assessments of who will better handle the nation’s most challenging issues we find that women prefer Harris over Trump. A similar dynamic is seen in views of which candidate best embodies key leadership traits with women consistently selecting Harris over Trump. With Election Day around the corner, Harris will need to build off the support shown to her by women in the nation and if she is able to do so, she may become the country’s 47th president and first woman to hold the office.”

“The story of Americans’ preferences in the 2024 presidential election is a story of ‘gaps’ – the gender gap, the age gap, the education gap and the racial divide,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “For each of these demographic categories, there are huge divides in support for Trump or Harris. Men favor Trump (50-44), but women break for Harris (50-43). Young people are much more enthusiastic about Harris (53-36 Harris) than Americans 55 and over (43-53). The education gap is particularly stark, as majorities of those with less than a high school education (53-41) favor Trump, but a strong majority of those with postgraduate degrees prefers Harris (57-38). And Trump continues to hold a majority of white support (53-41), while Harris draws disproportionate support from African Americans (71-19) and Latinos (56-35).”

“There is no doubt that more Americans think Harris has a better temperament to be president, 50% prefer her compared to just 36% for Trump,” notes Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “And more of them believe Harris cares about people like them (44-37). Women especially believe that Harris best represents needed change, with 48% saying this about her compared to just 38% for Trump.”

La Raja also points out that “more Americans would ‘rather have a drink’ with Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. Not surprisingly, the differences are especially stark among women – just 29% of women say they would rather have a drink with Trump compared to 42% who prefer to tipple with Harris.”

“While the nation has decades of experience in getting to know former President Donald Trump, many voters know relatively little about Vice President Kamala Harris,” Nteta says. “In recent weeks Harris has gone on a media blitz appearing on several popular podcasts, late night shows and news programs. These efforts may have paid off with voters – particularly female voters – viewing Harris as the candidate who is more likely to ‘fight for people like you,’ ‘cares about people like you,’ the candidate that ‘represents change’ and the candidate that voters would like to have a drink with. If the election comes down to relatability, likeability, empathy and a willingness to fight for her constituents, then Harris is poised to become the nation’s next president.”

Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, notes, however, that in a race that may come down to a few electoral votes in just a handful of states, the small number of currently undecided voters may be who ultimately tip the election to either candidate.

“Consistent with other polling, our results show a race for president that couldn’t be any closer and is coming down to the wire,” Theodoridis says. “If anyone tells you they know who is going to win, they are either misleading you, themselves, or both. Harris has a razor-thin edge nationally, but this election is likely to be decided by a relative handful of electoral votes in whichever of the seven swing states ends up being decisive. We are unlikely to know which candidate is going to win going into Election Day and may not know who has won until a few days after Nov. 5.”

Rhodes agrees, saying, “The presidential race is a nail-biter and will likely be the closest in modern American history. And, while the overwhelming majority of Americans decided who they were going to vote for months, if not years, ago, the election could turn on the small share of Americans who only recently made up their minds, or haven’t yet. This is why campaigns matter – changing a few minds or getting a few extra voters to the polls in swing states could spell the difference between victory or defeat.”

Theodoridis says that not only these undecided voters, but also disenchanted Republican voters, may possibly swing the presidency to Harris – if she can convince them to give her their votes.

“The campaigns, parties, and numerous groups are spending billions of dollars during this election season’s homestretch, but a paltry 5% of those voting for Harris or Trump tell us they made up their minds in the last few weeks or days,” Theodoridis says. “Appearing with Liz Cheney and several of the hundreds of Republican leaders and former Trump supporters or officials who have endorsed her, Harris and her campaign are in the midst of a major push for independents and Republicans who don’t like Trump. It is possible these efforts will impact vote choice and turnout in the swing states, but we see precious few Republican defectors in our national poll. And, the race is essentially tied among independents.”

How Voters View the Candidates on Issues

“Despite all of the ink spilled about Harris’ and Trump’s personalities, Americans apply stereotypical lenses when assessing the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses,” Rhodes says of the new UMass Amherst Poll’s findings. “Trump is viewed as the superior candidate on issues typically good for Republicans – the economy, taxes, crime and foreign policy. Harris is perceived as better on stereotypically “Democratic” issues – reproductive  rights, health care, education and voting rights. A critical question is what kind of candidate Americans want in this election: a candidate that does best on ‘Republican’ issues, or one who excels on ‘Democratic’ issues? We’ll soon find out.”

“Perhaps it is not surprising that voters from groups that have not done well economically tend to think Trump would be better for them,” La Raja says. “For example, 59% of less educated voters appear more confident that Trump knows how to build a growing economy compared to 48% of college-educated voters. Moreover, there is a large gap between rural and urban voters – 61% of rural Americans believe that Trump would be better economically compared to just 43% of urban dwellers.”

“While Trump portrays himself as a master salesman, women in the nation seem to not be buying Donald Trump’s negative portrayal of Vice President Kamala Harris,” Nteta says. “Since Harris stepped into the race, Trump has sought to paint Harris as a liberal extremist whose values and policies fail to represent most Americans. However, on policies such as climate change, reproductive rights, education, voting rights and health care – issues where Democrats are traditionally strong – majorities of women believe Harris more so than Trump would better handle these issues. Surprisingly, on issues where the Republican Party and Trump have historically been viewed favorably, such as taxes, crime, foreign policy and free speech, a majority of women favor Harris over Trump. With only weeks to go until Election Day, Trump may need to change his tune regarding Harris or suffer another loss in his quest to return to the White House.”

“Women consistently have more negative views of Trump, regardless of their age,” agrees La Raja. “They are more likely to say he is responsible for restricting a woman’s right to have an abortion, that he puts his own well-being ahead of the nation, and that he has sexually assaulted several women. Most dramatically, they feel more strongly that he is a threat to the future of democracy, with 50% saying this compared to just 39% of men.”

La Raja also notes the partisan difference among those of the poll’s respondents.

“Trump may lose the female vote, but there is a world of difference between Republican and Democratic women voters,” he says. “Republican women, by large margins, consistently downplay negative attributes of Trump and overwhelmingly give him credit for good things. Just 22% agree that he is responsible for restricting a women’s right to choose, compared to 82% of Democrats and 43% of independents. Also, 90% of Republican women say he puts America first compared to just 9% of Democratic women.”

“A challenge for Harris is that older Americans, who tend to vote at high levels, don’t particularly like her,” Rhodes notes. “They are less likely than younger Americans to say that Harris is intelligent, and less likely to say that the country is ready for an African American woman as president. They are also much more likely than younger cohorts to favor Trump. This is good news for Trump and to combat this Harris is going to have to work on turning out the younger, but less reliable voters, who prefer her.”

La Raja also notes the respondents’ views on potentially electing the nation’s first female – and first Black female – president, saying, “56% of Americans say that the country is ready for its first female president. That figure drops somewhat to 49% when we ask whether the country is ready for its first African American female president. Surprisingly, the views of men and women don’t differ much. However, perhaps in a show of confidence or pride, African Americans appear more likely to think the U.S. is ready for its first African American female president, with 55% saying this compared to 47% of whites.”

Ultimately, Nteta sees the Trump campaign’s strategy as potentially backfiring against its candidate.

“In recent weeks, Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, have unleashed a barrage of negative attacks on Harris,” he says. “From questioning her intelligence to her racial identity to her ability to serve as president without having biological children, the attacks have been fast and furious. Unfortunately for the Trump-Vance campaign, these attacks do not seem to be landing among women. Across qualities, such as intelligence, honesty, likeability, patriotism and moderation, women believe that Harris more than Trump embodies these positive qualities. When asked directly whether Harris not having biological children hurts her ability to serve as president, 69% of women disagree – with 56% strongly disagreeing. When asked if Harris only recently identified as African American, a plurality (40%) disagreed with this statement. While negative attacks have a long history of mobilizing and energizing voting blocs, Trump’s penchant for negativity may have the opposite effect on female voters, and if these results hold, Trump may only have himself to blame if he fails to reclaim the White House.”

The Prospects of Electoral and Partisan Violence

The new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll also surveyed respondents about their concerns over the prospects of electoral and partisan violence following the upcoming election.

“With Election Day just two short weeks away,” Nteta says, “Americans remain on the edge concerning the possibility of violence, with 7 in 10 expressing concern about violence in the wake of the 2024 election. Given the violence that accompanied the aftermath of the 2020 election perpetrated by supporters of former President Donald Trump, it is no surprise that nearly two-thirds of the public (65%) believes that there is a greater chance of violence if Trump again loses in his bid for the White House. With Trump indicating that he will once again fail to concede if election results show that he lost, an anxious nation hopes that the events of 2020 do not come to define another presidential election.”

Theodoridis agrees, saying “Once again, Americans are heading into Election Day with the spectre of violence on their minds. The vast majority of respondents, including both Democrats and Republicans, are deeply concerned about violence related to the 2024 elections, but partisans are polarized regarding what that violence may look like.”

“Democrats think violence is more likely if Donald Trump loses and are most worried it will be committed by MAGA supporters, white supremacists and Republicans,” Theodoridis explains. “Republicans believe violence is more likely if Kamala Harris loses and think it will come from Black Lives Matter supporters and Democrats.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll was conducted by YouGov Oct. 11-16. YouGov interviewed 1,816 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,500 to produce the final dataset. This consisted of two samples: A Main sample of 1,224 individuals from the U.S. general population matched down to 1,000, and an Oversample of 592 women from the U.S. general population matched down to 500. 

Respondents in each sample were matched to a sampling frame on gender (main sample only), age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the oversample of women respondents, this sampling frame was based on a women subset of the modeled frame of U.S. adults. In each sample, the matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender (main sample only), race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership (main sample only). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights for each sample were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender (main sample only), age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories). Both samples were the combined and an additional post-stratification on gender, 2020 presidential vote and political party identification were conducted separately to produce an overall sample weight. In addition, a second weight was produced for the women in the overall sample (1,036). This was produced with a similar process.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.1% for all respondents and 3.8% for female respondents.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll