Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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A new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found that a majority of Americans disapprove of the job performance of President Donald Trump as he approaches the three-month anniversary of his return to the White House.

The nationwide survey of 1,000 respondents, conducted April 4-9, found that while 44% approve of the job Trump has done thus far in his second term, 51% disapprove.

“Three months into his second administration, the honeymoon might be over for President Donald Trump as a majority of Americans (51%) express disapproval of the job that he is doing,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “While Trump enjoys majoritarian approval from his base of voters that includes Republicans (89%), conservatives (83%), Trump voters (87%) and older Americans (50%), the same cannot be said for Americans across many generational, educational, income and racial groups where Trump’s approval ratings are now underwater, with more members of these groups expressing disapproval or uncertainty than approval. With more than three years to go in Trump’s second presidency, there is still time for the president to right the ship, but the challenges posed by the economy, foreign affairs and the Democratic Party will likely make this a difficult endeavor.”

“Importantly, among those who disapprove, 44% strongly disapprove,” adds Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “This suggests that among those opposed, most feel this very intensely. Frustration with Trump is clearly tied to the belief that he is mismanaging the economy, which has had a very rough ride during Trump’s tenure in office. Fully 62% of Americans we surveyed perceive that he is not handling inflation well, and 58% believe he is mishandling trade policy. This is very bad news for him. Arguably, the belief that Joe Biden and the Democrats were mishandling the economy doomed the presidential aspirations of Kamala Harris in 2024. Unless Trump and the Republicans turn things around quickly, they are likely to face similar retribution in upcoming elections.”

“In the first months of his presidency, President Trump has gone ‘all-in’ on an aggressive tariff policy that he believes will jumpstart the American economy and bring high paying jobs and lower costs back to the nation,” Nteta says. “It remains to be seen if his bet will pay off, but if it doesn’t, he and the Republican Party will likely face an electorate poised for change in 2026 and beyond.”

“Our current hyper-polarization has rendered presidential approval numbers a fundamentally different measure than they once were,” explains Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Partisans are very reluctant to express approval for a president of the other party and abandon one from their own party, so approval numbers fluctuate within a historically narrow band. Gone are the days when both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush saw their approval numbers rise to the 90% range. Donald Trump is perhaps this polarized era’s most polarizing figure, and his approval numbers reflect this. Even so, presidential approval numbers in the low-40s and disapproval at over 50% should prompt concern among Team Trump.”

Theodoridis adds, however, that “Trump’s fellow Republicans can take some solace in the fact that the Democratic Party’s approval numbers are even more pathetic – only 29% of our poll’s respondents approve of the job the Democrats are doing, as opposed to 41% approval for the GOP.”
 

Underwater on Every Issue Except Immigration

In addition to the economy, the new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll found broad disapproval of Trump’s handling of jobs (38-53), foreign affairs (39-55) and civil rights (36-53). 

“Three months into his presidency, Trump’s policy agenda is in serious trouble,” Rhodes says. “The problem is simple: Trump’s approach to policy is unpopular. A majority of Americans believes he is not handling inflation, trade, civil rights or foreign affairs well, and a near majority feels the same about Trump’s handling of jobs. Disapproval of Trump’s performance on economic issues is particularly dangerous for the president. Trump may have big plans for the economy, but Americans aren’t willing to wait years – or suffer a recession – for these to materialize.”

Another issue on which the poll’s respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling is the pardoning of those involved with the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.

“Rather than just moving on after his historic return to the White House, Donald Trump appears obsessed with vindicating his claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen and flipping the narrative about Jan. 6,” Theodoridis says. “The most salient act of ‘Big Lie’ vindication came on Trump’s first day in office when he issued pardons or commutations for those convicted of both nonviolent and violent crimes on Jan. 6, 2021. We find very limited support for these pardons – only 35% of respondents tell us they support pardons for those convicted of nonviolent crimes on that day and only 18% support pardons of those convicted of violent crimes. Even among Republican respondents, 72% of whom support pardoning nonviolent Jan. 6 participants, only 41% favor pardons for violent offenders.”

The poll found that the only issue for which Trump does enjoy positive approval is immigration, on which half of the respondents approve of his performance (50-46).

“Why has Trump made some very controversial – indeed, by some reckonings, crisis-inducing – decisions in the area of immigration, including deporting noncitizens for minor offenses, shipping hundreds to dangerous prisons in El Salvador and stripping foreign students of their visas?” Rhodes asks. “Because he promised harsh immigration policies and, as our poll shows, immigration is his best issue. In fact, immigration is the only area we polled where Trump enjoys majority approval. Given this, we should expect Trump to continue to push forward with his harsh immigration agenda.”

Ultimately, though, Nteta says that the poll finds that Americans aren’t seeing the results of Trump’s boldest campaign promise, one that has adorned millions of red hats for the past decade.

“At the heart of Trump’s political success has been MAGA – ‘Make America Great Again’ – a slogan that purportedly harkens back to a time of American prosperity and dominance while simultaneously highlighting the contemporary decline in America’s status and success,” Nteta says. “With Trump back in the White House, many Americans express skepticism that the president is succeeding in returning the nation to its supposed glory years. Pluralities of Americans believe that the Trump administration is weakening American democracy (49%), American standing in the world (49%), the American economy (49%), public health (47%), national security (46%) and the U.S. Constitution (48%).”
 

Hope, Concerns and Regret

“After the first three months of the Trump presidency we were curious to understand the hopes and concerns of Americans,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Despite much turmoil in Washington, a majority of Americans (53%) remains hopeful that President Trump will make decisions that put the interests of ordinary Americans first. Not surprisingly the more hopeful respondents include voters in Trump’s base – whites, non-college-educated and those earning less than $40,000. These Americans feel he will deliver. They also appear hopeful that the president will strengthen the economy and create good jobs.”

The new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll also asked Americans how concerned they were about a range of actions by the president.

“We find significant concerns,” La Raja states bluntly. “The biggest one they cite is that Trump will defy a court order – a clear majority of 55% feels this way, compared to just 27% who are not concerned. Americans sense that this defiance against the judiciary could create a major constitutional crisis. More broadly, majorities are also concerned about him not respecting the rule of law (55-32), declaring war on a foreign adversary (51-33), or advancing the interest of foreign enemies (50-33). We found that women, young people, the college-educated and non-whites are more likely to be concerned about Trump transgressing the law or engaging in damaging foreign policy.”

The poll also found that the protection of civil liberties is a major concern of respondents. “Our poll found that 50% of Americans are worried about the Trump administration deporting illegal immigrants based on their political views, compared to 33% who are not,” La Raja says. “Similarly, 50% are worried about him actually jailing American citizens based on their political views, compared to 40% who are not. These figures show clearly how many Americans fear the loss of free speech rights, among other protections in the Constitution, including due process under the law.”

Nteta says that many of the concerns the poll’s respondents expressed can be tied to one of the focal points of the 2024 election – Project 2025.

“In the run-up to the 2024 election, we found that many of the policies associated with the Heritage Foundation’s governing playbook known as Project 2025 were unpopular with majorities of Americans, even among Republicans, conservatives and Trump voters,” Nteta says. “Now, three months into the Trump administration pursuing a number of these policies, majorities of Americans remain opposed to efforts to fire federal employees and replace them with appointees loyal to the president (62%), reduce civil rights protections for LGBT people (52%), cut funding for renewable energy research and investment (54%) and eliminate the Department of Education (54%). With the public consistently expressing opposition to these policies, the Trump administration and Republican Party may want to rethink their efforts to push through these unpopular policy changes or potentially face an unforgiving electorate in 2026.”

Rhodes agrees, saying, “Although Trump disavowed Project 2025 during his presidential campaign, the reality is that he has sought to implement key proposals from this Heritage Foundation guidebook. When we polled about these proposals before the election, they were unpopular then and they still aren’t popular now – indeed, attitudes are quite similar to what they were in the fall. Trump’s efforts to implement these proposals during his presidency helps explain why his approval ratings are underwater, and why most of those who disapprove do so vehemently – he’s using the powers of the presidency to enact policies most people don’t want.”

“Most research on electoral politics tells us that electoral mandates are mostly a chimera,” Theodoridis says. “They tend to be pieced together based more on fancy than fact and they generally don’t actually exist. But, our results on what voters think should be the Trump administration’s top priorities are telling. Americans of all political stripes overwhelmingly want Trump focused on improving the economy and lowering prices. Reducing undocumented immigration and cutting taxes receive some support as well. Almost nobody seems to want the Trump administration focused on things like ending DEI programs, pushing back against political correctness on college campuses, establishing that there are only two genders, imposing tariffs on imports from other countries, reducing the federal workforce or cutting foreign aid.”

“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Nteta says, citing the old Frank Sinatra standard “My Way.” “With the nation potentially on the precipice of a recession, consumer confidence at the lowest level since the Great Recession, and the stock market losing a reported $11 trillion in value, it may come as no surprise that many Americans who voted for President Trump may be having second thoughts about their decision. According to our poll, while close to 3 in 4 Trump voters are confident in their decision to vote for Trump (74%), 26% of his voters have at least some concerns about their vote with some indicating that they regret their vote and would have voted differently (2%). This early in his term, President Trump still has ample opportunity to convince his voters that he was the right person for the job, but the clock is ticking and his supporters are watching to see if he can deliver.”

Rhodes agrees, saying “About 30% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, and just over quarter think he hasn’t handled trade well. Checking stock portfolios and retirement accounts that have been rocked by the president’s tariff policies, these Republicans may be experiencing some remorse.”

Ultimately, La Raja says that the poll shows an expectation that whatever actions Trump takes during the remainder of his term will be done unilaterally.

“A majority of Americans have no illusions about how Trump will govern,” La Raja says. “Fifty-three percent are not hopeful he will govern in a way that unites rather than divides the country, compared to 47% who are. Young people are especially skeptical he will govern as a uniter, with just over one-third (37%) saying they hope that he will.”
 

Trump… 2028?

The new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll also asked respondents about their views on Trump giving air to the possibility of serving a third term.

“Some in the Trump orbit and even Donald Trump himself have floated the idea that there are methods by which Trump could seek a third term in office,” Theodoridis says. “Overall, there is little support – fewer than 1 in 5 respondents – for him pursuing a third term in office. However, there are signs that Republicans may be ‘third-term curious,’ as about 40% of Republicans express support for Trump pursuing a third term, compared to about 36% who actively oppose the idea.”

“When interviewed by NBC News about potentially running for and serving a third term as president, Trump declared that ‘A lot of people want me to do it,’ suggesting that a majority of Americans were supportive of his effort to challenge the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment,” Nteta says. “However, the public does not share his assessment, as 65% of Americans express opposition to Trump pursuing a third term in office and 58% indicate strong opposition to this possibility. Majorities of gender, age, educational, income and racial groups oppose Trump’s efforts to challenge the Constitution and close to 4 in 10 Trump voters, conservatives and Republicans oppose the president on this issue. On the question of whether Trump should seek a third term in office, the public has seemingly spoken and is in support of precluding him from staying in office past January 20, 2029.”
 

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents nationally was conducted by YouGov April 4-9. YouGov interviewed 1,081 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 and 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories) to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.7%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll