Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

A new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found broad wariness of the Trump administration’s attempts to cut federal spending, with majorities of Americans expressing distrust of billionaire Elon Musk’s efforts with the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

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“Only three months into his tenure at DOGE, questions concerning Musk’s conflict of interests, his legal authority to cut federal programs, and the actual budgetary savings that DOGE has elicited continue to swirl,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Our results suggest that these controversies may have had a negative effect on the public’s view of Musk, as majorities of Americans do not trust him to identify federal programs to cut (53%), protect the private information of citizens (55%), or to avoid using his position to benefit his business interests (59%). Additionally, a majority of Americans (56%) believe that Musk has too much influence over the federal government. Given the unpopularity of Musk’s efforts to rein in federal spending, it is no surprise that many expect Musk to return to his businesses and to put Washington, D.C., in his rearview mirror.”

“There’s a huge racial divide in trust in Musk, with whites expressing much more trust in Musk’s judgment and public spiritedness than people of color,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll. “One likely explanation is Musk’s reputation for extreme positions on issues concerning race and immigration. For people of color, Musk’s pseudo-Nazi salute at a Trump rally, his advocacy on behalf of white Afrikaners, his support for a German extreme right-wing party and his endorsement of the Great Replacement Theory likely convey the message that he is not looking out for their interests. Musk’s alienation of supermajorities of people of color is a huge drag on overall public trust in his leadership.”

Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, points to the partisan divide in respondents’ trust of Musk with America’s purse-strings. “Republicans express a tremendous amount of confidence in his ability to cut federal spending while serving the public interest, ensuring that essential funding is protected, and protecting private information,” he says. “Democrats, on the other hand, are deeply distrustful of the Tesla CEO’s ability to do these things, with 9 in 10 Democrats believing that he has too much influence.”
 

Cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security

As Trump, Musk and congressional Republicans turn their focus from more low-profile government departments such as the USDA and USAID to major programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, the new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll shows that they may be getting dangerously close to the proverbial “political third rail” of American politics.

“In recent days, the Trump administration and several prominent Republican members of the U.S. Congress have hinted that cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid spending may be next on the agenda, leading many to question whether Trump’s efforts to rein in spending may have gone too far,” Nteta says. “Our results suggest that any cuts to these programs will be extremely unpopular as approximately 7 in 10 Americans oppose cuts to Social Security (72%), Medicare (71%) and Medicaid (67%), with majorities of respondents stating they strongly oppose cuts to each.

“Even in this polarized era of American politics,” Nteta continues, “we find that cuts to these programs bring Americans of different partisan stripes together as majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents alike express opposition to these cuts. Cutting these programs seems like bad politics for the Trump administration and the Republican Party, and only time will tell if their desire for reduced federal spending trumps their consideration of the electoral chances in the upcoming midterm election.”

“In recent weeks, Elon Musk has made unsubstantiated claims about massive fraud in some of the nation’s most important social programs – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – and his DOGE has made cuts to staff that seem to be compromising the capacity of the bureaucracies that administer them,” Rhodes adds. “Many observers believe – and fear – that these are preliminary steps in a plan to enact massive cuts to programs on which tens of millions of Americans rely. But these plans, if they were to emerge, are incredibly unpopular. Supermajorities of Americans oppose cuts to any of these programs. Their enduring popularity means that efforts to cut these programs are very politically risky. Moving ahead would likely further erode public support for Musk and, by association, Trump.”
 

Views on Musk, Billionaires and an ‘American Oligarchy’

The new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll also found that respondents’ views of Musk have grown more negative since the election, and Nteta says this may be leading to the billionaire’s exit from the halls of power in Washington.

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“In recent weeks, President Trump has hinted that Elon Musk’s time in the White House may be drawing to a close,” Nteta says. “In the wake of Musk’s failed attempt to elect a conservative judge in Wisconsin, his opposition to Trump’s tariff policies, and the controversies associated with his leadership of DOGE, Trump may believe that Musk, by far the largest donor to his campaign, has become more of a political liability than an asset. The results of our recent poll suggest that this indeed may be the case. When asked to indicate how they feel about Musk on a scale of 0 (coldest) to 100 (warmest), we find that ratings of Musk have dropped from an average of 42 in October of 2024 to 37 today. We additionally asked Americans to describe Musk in one word, and while the word ‘smart’ was most frequently mentioned, the second most popular word to describe him was ‘evil.’ Trump has long proven adept at cutting his losses, and if Musk can’t regain a modicum of positive assessments by the public, he is likely going to become another in the long list of former employees of the Trump administration.”

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, explains that this latest survey points to a growing distrust of billionaires’ impact on government.

“Most Americans – 56% – think billionaires threaten democracy, and that view doesn’t waver by income level,” La Raja says. “Trump voters are less likely to perceive a threat, which is at odds with the populist impulses of many of these voters. Nonetheless, more than 1 in 4 Trump voters (27%) agree that billionaires are a threat, despite the fact that Musk, one of the world’s richest men, is linked closely to the president.”

La Raja warns that these beliefs are likely closely related to a view among a plurality of Americans that our government is no longer of, by and for the people, but is under the control of the rich.

“Nearly half of Americans (45%) say the U.S. is an oligarchy, run by and for a few elites, while just 28% disagree with this view,” La Raja says. “Even among Trump supporters, many of whom are anti-elite, 1 in 5 see ‘the system’ as rigged for the rich. When belief in democracy gives way to cynicism about plutocracy, legitimacy begins to erode.”

“The vast majority of Democrats now say that America is an oligarchy (71%) and that billionaires represent a threat to American democracy (84%),” Thedoridis adds.

The poll also asked for respondents’ views on who, specifically, may wield too much power over the levers of the federal government.

“Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans believe that technology companies, Wall Street and health insurance companies have too much influence in America,” Theodoridis says. “They disagree, though, on the influence of unions and religion. Most Republicans believe unions have too much power, while most Democrats think religion is too influential.”

“A backlash against the power of tech industry leaders seems to be brewing,” Rhodes says. “Today, a majority of Americans believe that Elon Musk, and tech companies more generally, have too much influence in American government. We can interpret this as a reflection of Americans’ ambivalence about the role of technology in their lives. Of course, Americans recognize the many benefits that come with technological innovation. At the same time, however, they may be worried that the enormous wealth and influence wielded by tech industry leaders might distort government priorities and policymaking.”
 

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents nationally was conducted by YouGov April 4-9. YouGov interviewed 1,081 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 and 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories) to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.7%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll