Research

UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll Releases Statewide Findings on Governor’s Race, Baker’s Approval and Various Issues Facing the Bay State

The team of political scientists who direct the University of Massachusetts Amherst / WCVB Poll have released a series of findings from a new statewide poll that surveyed respondents about a number of topics, including their views of Gov. Charlie Baker’s job performance, candidate preference in the 2022 gubernatorial race and a number of issues impacting the commonwealth, such as the COVID pandemic and K-12 education. With Baker choosing not to seek re-election to a third term earlier this week, the poll and the expertise of UMass pollsters have earned an especially high profile.

The poll of 750 Massachusetts residents conducted Nov. 9-16 found that 56% of respondents approve of the way Baker is doing his job, which while still down significantly from the 78% approval he held in August 2020 is four points higher than the 52% approval rating he held in a UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll conducted this past March.

The new poll found 67% of respondents believe Baker is handling the pandemic well, up seven points from the spring, and 59% say that he has handled the economy well. More than half (53%) rate the Massachusetts economy as good or excellent, compared to only 32% who feel the same way about the national economy.

Overall, 50% of respondents believe things in Massachusetts are going in the right direction, up from 47% in the March poll, while 52% see things nationally on the wrong track, in line with the 51% who responded similarly in March.

While Baker holds solid approval ratings across nearly all demographics, the Republican’s softest support is actually with members of his own party, with just a 41% approval rating among GOP voters and 49% of them saying he has fallen short of their expectations. Nearly half of all Republicans (48%) – and more than half of conservatives (51%) and Trump voters (56%) – surveyed in the new poll actually perceive Baker as an ideological liberal, rather than as a moderate or conservative.

“Gov. Baker has a problem with his supposed base of voters in the Republican Party,” says Tatishe Nteta, associate professor of political science and director of the poll. “When given the opportunity, conservatives, Republicans and Trump voters all express their disdain and disappointment with the Governor’s leadership. While this may not have affected Baker in the general election, he may have had an issue connecting to Republican voters in a primary if he chose to run in 2022.”

Open Governor’s Race Changes Political Landscape

These numbers were released less than two weeks prior to the governor’s Dec. 1 announcement that he would not seek re-election to a third term, even though his overall prospects in a potential general election race appeared strong. Baker had opened up a six-point lead over Attorney General Maura Healey in a theoretical matchup of the 2022 gubernatorial general election race, according to the poll. The 33-27 lead doubled the three-point advantage Baker held in a March UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll over Healey, the only Democrat surveyed who posed a competitive threat to the Republican incumbent.

Baker’s decision not to run for a third term changes things dramatically, says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll. With Baker – as well as Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito – bowing out of the race, Healey appears to become the clear frontrunner for the governorship should she officially enter the contest.

“In an open race, voters tend to revert to partisanship and ideology in deciding how to vote. In this case, Democrats, and particularly Attorney General Healey, have significant advantages,” Rhodes says.

“Charlie Baker has pulled off something fairly extraordinary for a Republican these days: he gets high approval ratings across groups, including people of color, as well as women voters and across socioeconomic groups,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll. “He would have been in an enviable position if he sought a third term – he is liked by voters across virtually all groups, and with plenty of money to circulate throughout the state. That would have been a double-barreled challenge for anyone choosing to compete against him. But, despite his popularity in the Bay State, I don’t see prospects for Baker launching a presidential bid in 2024. Voters may love him here, but the national Republican base will not let him get past the gate, even after a plausible good showing in the New Hampshire primary.”

All of the poll’s findings – including respondents views on the issues ranging from public education to vaccine mandates, and even who was most responsible for the New England Patriots’ dominance during the Brady/Belichick era – can be found in these recent stories published by the News Office:

More information about the UMass Poll, including the detailed toplines and crosstabs for this and all other polls the team has conducted, can be found at www.umass.edu/poll.