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Peter Turchin, emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut and research associate at the University of Oxford, will present “Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration” as part of the Center for Research and Families’ Tay Gavin Erickson Lecture Series from 4:30-6 p.m. on Thursday, May 1 in Crotty Hall room 209.  

Turchin, who is also project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, is one of the foremost experts on the intersection of historical data, complexity science and social dynamics. In his lecture, he will explore the deep structural forces that shape our social and political systems – and how these forces are contributing to rising turbulence in the United States and Western Europe. 

Turchin’s research delves into the hidden factors behind what he calls our “Age of Discord,” providing an insightful analysis of the wealth pump that has been transferring wealth from the “99%” to the “1%” over the past two generations. This economic divide has led to a frustrating overproduction of elites and a growing sense of discontent among the public, creating fertile ground for political unrest and disintegration.

Drawing on historical data and the tools of complexity science, Turchin will explain why the overproduction of elites, along with economic instability, can lead to violent political rupture – and why we may already be on the brink of such a transformation. Through this analysis, he provides critical insights into the potential future of political communities and their vulnerability to both internal and external shocks. 

Turchin is also the founding director of Seshat: Global History Databank. His work investigates the processes that shape human societies, particularly the evolution of cooperation in large, complex societies and the factors that contribute to the resilience – or disintegration – of these societies. His notable works include “End Times,” “Ultrasociety,” and the forthcoming “The Great Holocene Transformation.”

To register to attend the event, complete the online form found here.