Gov. Maura Healey Continues to Enjoy Strong Support Among Massachusetts Residents According to New UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Well into the second year of her first term, Gov. Maura Healey continues to receive strong approval for her performance from Massachusetts residents, though she may face some headwinds on her handling of the housing and migrant crises, according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.

Image

“The honeymoon does not seem to be over for Gov. Maura Healey,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “While many assumed that nearly a year and half into her tenure that the governor would experience a significant dip in her approval ratings, residents of the state still give her high marks with 54% approving of the job that Healey has done. This is only a 4-percentage point decline from last October and a 3-percentage point dip from April 2023. Healey has maintained her positive approval numbers in the midst of persistent housing and migrant crises, unexpected revenue shortfalls, controversies surrounding her travel out of the state and concerns about the conflict of interest surrounding her nominee for the Supreme Judicial Court. As Healey weighs whether to run for re-election in 2026, she can rest assured that she remains a popular figure in the Bay State.”

Nteta notes, however, that while Healey’s approval numbers remain strong, there are some areas of concern for the governor.

“Healey’s approval ratings among people of color, liberals, Biden voters and in particular, young people – key members of the state’s Democratic coalition – have all declined since last October,” he says. “Whether this is a trend remains to be seen, but moving forward she may want to focus more attention on her core constituencies to protect against any challenges from within her party in 2026 and beyond.”

Nteta adds that “it is not all roses for Healey, however,” as she also faces serious concerns over her performance on two critical issues increasingly facing Bay State voters – the increasing costs of housing and the rise in the numbers of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers coming to the commonwealth.

“As respondents continue to point to housing as the state’s biggest problem, they also take fault with Healey’s handling of the housing crisis, with 6 in 10 respondents indicating that Healey has handled housing ‘not too well’ (31%) or ‘not well at all’ (29%),” Nteta explains. “While the usual demographics of Republicans, Trump Voters and conservatives give Healey low marks on housing, it is more concerning that key members of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition – including women, people of color, young people, liberals and Biden voters – also express little faith in Healey’s handling of housing. The success of Healey’s first term is likely going to be judged by how she responds to the crisis in housing, but a year and half into her term it seems as if residents in the state are giving her a failing grade.”

Nteta adds that while the poll’s respondents point to Congressional Republicans and President Biden as the political leaders most responsible for the migrant crisis, “that does not mean that Healey is off the hook.”

“Respondents judge Healey’s handling of the migrant crisis harshly with close to half of all residents believing that Healey has handled the crisis ‘not too well’ (17%) or ‘not well at all’ (31%),” he says. “As the state is poised to spend close to $1 billion in support of the ‘right to shelter’ law and a low likelihood that Congress will address immigration reform in 2024, Healey and the Mass State Legislature may need to propose bold solutions to the problem or face the wrath of voters at the ballot box in 2024 and beyond.”

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, points to the respondents’ views of the top issues facing the U.S. as proof of the seriousness of the migrant situation for Healey.

“The unexpected influx of migrants has agitated even voters in Massachusetts, which typically does not face the same situation as U.S. border states like Texas and California,” La Raja says. “In this election year, immigration was ranked as a top issue at 16%, coming in a close third after the economy (22%) and the health of democracy (22%).”

Ultimately, Nteta says that the poll’s respondents’ own words bode well for how residents view the governor, though.

“Judging by the most frequently used words to describe Maura Healey – words that include ‘competent,’ ‘good,’ ‘smart,’ ‘fair’ and ‘strong’ – residents clearly believe that they are in good hands under the stewardship of Gov. Healey,” Nteta says. “One of the most popular words used is ‘liberal.’ While many progressives in the state may question whether the governor has exhibited a true commitment to pursuing progressive policies, in a solidly blue state that leans toward the left of the ideological spectrum, being called a ‘liberal’ is a badge of honor that Healey likely wears with pride.”

Possible 2024 Ballot Questions

The UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 residents of the commonwealth, conducted May 17-30, also gauged respondents’ views on a number of ballot issues that Bay State voters may face on Election Day this November.

“With the 2024 election only five months away, opinions toward potential ballot questions are beginning to take shape,” Nteta says. “The leader out of the gate is the ballot question championed by State Auditor Diana DiZoglio that seeks to give the auditor the authority to audit the Massachusetts State Legislature, with 64% of respondents indicating that they would vote ‘yes.’ This ballot question is popular across all demographic and political groups in the state and is shockingly an issue that liberals (65%), conservatives (72%), Biden voters (69%) and Trump voters (76%) agree on. While there is still time until Election Day, opponents of this ballot question have an uphill battle to convince voters that this change is not warranted.”

The poll found even stronger overall backing (69%) for increasing the minimum wage of tipped workers in the commonwealth, though support for the proposal is markedly less bipartisan as slightly fewer than half (48%) of Republicans endorse the increase.

“Given rising costs of living in the Bay State, it comes as no surprise that there is widespread support with close to 7 in 10 residents likely to vote for gradual increases to the minimum hourly wage for tipped workers to match the state minimum wage,” Nteta says. “The restaurant industry is likely to mount a defense of the status quo, but, with only 16% in opposition and 15% undecided, opponents of this ballot question likely need a Herculean effort to turn the tides against its passage.”

One potential ballot measure for which respondents expressed much less enthusiasm is that which would legalize natural psychedelic substances for growth, possession and use by people over age 21.

“For many residents of the commonwealth, the legalization of marijuana was thought to be a slippery slope that would result in a number of illicit and illegal drugs becoming part of the mainstream,” Nteta says. “These fears may become a reality as the movement for the legalization of psychedelics gains steam across the nation and arrives in the Bay State. Residents of the commonwealth are split over whether to legalize natural psychedelic substances with 40% in support and 41% in opposition. The lack of decisive support for a ballot question usually spells doom for its passage, but supporters of this change have yet to make their case to the broader public and there is still time until the November election. If successful, Massachusetts will become only the second state in the union to legalize these substances.”

Looking at the 2024 Elections and Beyond

With the race for the White House looking like a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll again examined respondents’ views of the presidential race and the most critical issues facing voters this November.

“Among Massachusetts voters, not surprisingly, Joe Biden wins easily with 48% of the vote compared to 27% for Donald Trump,” La Raja says. “The gender gap in the presidential vote for Trump exists big time in Massachusetts: one-third of men in the state say they will vote for Trump compared to just one-fifth of women.”

La Raja adds, “Partisan loyalties predict how Massachusetts voters will cast their ballots in the upcoming presidential election. It’s a mirror image – 78% of Democrats say they will vote for Biden and 79% of Republicans say they will support Trump. Many independents are still undecided, but among those who have made their choice most favor Trump (27%) compared to Biden (15%), who gets nearly the same percentage as Robert Kennedy Jr. (14%).”

He notes that the potential for Kennedy to pull off what would be a stunning upset in his family’s native state is quite slim.

“Even with the power of the Kennedy name in Massachusetts, Robert Kennedy Jr. gets just 9% of the total Massachusetts electorate,” La Raja says. “The explanation for this is straightforward – when we asked folks to describe Kennedy the two words that stand out are ‘Nut’ and ‘Crazy.’ We found that young people in Massachusetts are twice as attracted to Kennedy as a candidate than middle aged residents – 20% of voters in the range of 18-29 years old said they will vote for Kennedy, compared to just 9% for those 30-54 years old. The ones who are least likely to support Kennedy, though, are older voters above 55 years old who were alive when Kennedy’s father was running for president – just 2% of them said they would support RFK Jr.”

The poll’s respondents indicated two main issues will be driving their votes this November.

“Going into the 2024 election, Massachusetts residents rank both the economy and the health of our democracy at the top of their issues of concern – both garner 22% of voters’ worries,” La Raja says. “In our previous national polling, Americans put the economy as their top concern and rank democracy as less important compared to Massachusetts voters. It is not surprising to see this difference, though, as more educated voters, liberals and Democrats all rank democracy pretty high, and Massachusetts has more of these kinds of voters than most other states.”

La Raja also notes while protests over the Israeli-Hamas War may have been roiling university campuses recently, only 4% of Massachusetts voters said this was the most important issue in the 2024 election, and only 9% of voters 18-29 noted the war as their most important issue.

The poll also found that Bay State residents continue to support calls for same-day voter registration.

“Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly support allowing people to register to vote and cast a ballot at the same time as 70% favor same-day registration, which is in place in 22 states,” La Raja says. “This reform should make it easier for people to vote, especially younger residents who are often not registered on election day.”

One slate of questions asked by the poll concerned transparency regarding elected officials and respondents overwhelmingly supported all of the measures about which they were asked. Six in 10 respondents support the disclosure of emails sent and received from officials’ email addresses; approximately two-thirds support the disclosure of names of individuals and/or groups that speak with officials over the phone regarding official business (65%) and to provide information concerning their travel destinations when they leave the state (67%); and more than 7 in 10 support disclosing the names of individuals and/or groups that meet with officials regarding their official duties (71%) and disclosing the names of donors to independent committees that fund non-campaign expenses, such as inauguration celebrations (73%).

Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, says the poll respondents’ concerns over the nation’s democracy and their views on transparency could ultimately strengthen the Democratic Party’s hold on Massachusetts government.

“With the health of our democracy rivaling the economy as the top issue for Massachusetts voters, and overwhelming majorities of respondents supporting Election Day registration and a slew of transparency measures for elected officials,” he says, “Democratic politicians in the Bay State are wise to emphasize national Republican standard bearer Donald Trump’s authoritarian and anti-democratic rhetoric to further strengthen their hold on the Massachusetts electorate.”

The poll also found continued support for the state’s two U.S. senators, as one seeks re-election this fall, and the other is looking ahead to a re-election bid in 2026.

“While Robert Antonellis appears to have a solid base of committed supporters, no clear frontrunner has emerged in the GOP race to challenge incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Warren in November,” Theodoridis says. “The largest chunk of Bay State Republicans and independents indicate they don’t yet know which candidate they are leaning toward supporting. With Warren polling ahead of Biden in terms of favorability, being competitive in November will likely be an uphill climb no matter which candidate wins the nomination.”

“As Sen. Warren is poised to win her third term this fall as senator from the commonwealth and Sen. Ed Markey has already announced his plan to run for reelection in 2026, Warren and Markey will likely represent the state for years to come,” Nteta says. “Looking to the future, though, there are a number of prominent Democrats in the state who would be likely to run if either Warren or Markey decides to retire, resign or not seek re-election. If an open Senate seat were to become a reality, Gov. Healey has emerged as the prohibitive favorite in a Democratic Senate primary election, followed by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and former Gov. Deval Patrick. Whether Healey would want to trade her corner office in the State House for an office in the U.S. Capitol remains an open question, but if the opportunity arises, she would be the prohibitive frontrunner among Democratic hopefuls.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 Massachusetts respondents was conducted by YouGov May 17-30. YouGov interviewed 741 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of Massachusetts adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and own or rent. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as stratifications of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories) to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.4%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll