New UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll Finds Strong Approval for Gov. Healey, but Worry Over Housing Costs, Availability

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Ten months into Maura Healey’s term as governor, 58% of respondents to a new UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll approve of the job she is doing, although the critical need for more housing in the commonwealth threatens her currently strong support.

“Less than a year into her tenure as Governor of Massachusetts, Maura Healey has not only inherited her predecessor’s corner office, but she has also taken the mantle as one of the commonwealth’s most popular elected officials as close to 6-in-10 residents approve of the job that Healey has done ten months into the job,” says Tatishe Nteta, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the UMass Poll. “Since being sworn into office as the state’s 73rd governor, she has experienced a legislative victory in her effort to reform Massachusetts’ tax code, has garnered national and local acclaim for her protection of access to reproductive health care for the state’s residents, and approved a $56 billion state budget for fiscal year 2024. With these accomplishments under the governor’s belt, it is no surprise that a clear majority of the state’s citizens view Healey in such a positive light.”

Across demographic and political divides, the new poll of 700 respondents found Healey receiving high marks for the job that she is doing.

“Since our April poll, Healey has experienced a boost in her approval numbers among men, across generational and educational groups, and surprisingly among conservatives, Republicans, and even Trump voters,” Nteta says, noting the 28% support Healey gets from those who voted for Donald Trump’s re-election in 2020. “Healey’s ability to garner the approval of groups from across the state’s partisan and ideological divides will likely serve her well as she seeks to tackle the state’s most pressing problems and challenges.”

“A major indicator of Gov. Healey’s popularity is how well Massachusetts residents rate her in relation to hugely popular former Gov. Charlie Baker,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the UMass Poll. “Across eight issues polled, Healey is favored on four and Baker is favored on four. Healey is preferred over her predecessor on liberal priorities such as climate change (54%), reproductive rights (63%), child care (56%) and education (51%), while Baker holds the edge on the economy (61%), taxes (54%), transportation (51%) and housing (51%).”

“If Gov. Healey has a political weakness, it’s that many Massachusetts residents are not familiar with her record, including areas such as reform of the tax code, where she has achieved major accomplishments,” Rhodes cautions. “This reflects a challenge that faces many state executives – residents often judge governors on their perceptions of overall state conditions, not on whether governors succeed in keeping their promises.”

“Healey may at some point run into strong headwinds, but right now she has the wind in her sails,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the UMass Poll. “She seems to be capitalizing on the honeymoon period by navigating a disciplined course of liberal policies to improve quality of life, while indicating she is fiscally responsible to taxpayers by championing tax cuts. It is not surprising her poll numbers remain strong across most groups of voters and she especially appears to have won points from initially skeptical men who may have relied on gender stereotypes when she was elected. Fifteen percent of men say she exceeded their expectations compared to 9% of women saying this. More importantly, her approval among men increased 7 percentage points, from 51% to 58%, in the past six months following her policy wins.”

Ultimately, La Raja looks beyond the State House in prognosticating Healey’s political ambitions.

“It is early in her tenure, but I would say that Gov. Healey is setting herself up very well to run for other high offices,” he says. “She is promoting liberal policies on childcare, housing and transportation. These are bread-and-butter Democratic positions. But her press releases tout her tax cuts, and she has positioned herself as pragmatic, center-left politician. According to our poll, most voters see her as closer to the center than either of Senators Warren or Markey.”

Healey’s Housing Challenge

While respondents to the poll overwhelmingly describe Healey with positive words such as “good,” “competent,” “strong” and “smart,” and she generally holds net positive performance ratings on most issues surveyed, the issue of housing cost and availability looms as a potentially major stumbling block for her term.

“While residents view Healey’s 10-month tenure as governor as a success, there are challenges on the horizon that left unaddressed could spell trouble for Healey’s administration,” Nteta says. “Close to 1-in-3 residents identify the state’s housing shortage and affordability as the one issue that they would like to see Healey and the state Legislature tackle. A majority of residents (51%) believe that the governor has not handled the housing crisis well and 4-in-10 believe that she has broken her promise to make housing more affordable in the state. If she does not deal directly and promptly with the housing crisis in the state, it may do more than derail her agenda, it may provide her critics, challengers and naysayers with the ammunition to do real damage to the stellar approval ratings that the governor now enjoys.”

“Frustration with Healey’s handling of the housing issue spans the political spectrum, with few in any major demographic group or political camp believing that she’s kept her promises in this area,” Rhodes says. “Housing is a very complex issue, and comprehensive solutions require cooperation between the governor, the state Legislature and private industry. However, if Healey hopes to capitalize on her current overall popularity and avoid public backlash on what is arguably the most salient issue in the commonwealth, she will need to make notable progress on housing affordability as her governorship progresses.”

“If the buck stops with Healey, our results suggest that residents may turn on the popular governor if home prices and rents continue to soar and the available stock of homes continues to plummet,” Nteta concludes. “Thus, it is no surprise that Healey has recently announced her $4 billion plan to increase the number of available and affordable homes in the state to alleviate this crisis. Time will tell if Healey has the political influence to get her bill passed in the state Legislature or if her attempt to address this crisis will become Healey’s first political defeat as governor.”

In addition to the looming issue of housing in the Bay State, other potential hurdles to a smooth first term for Healey are present, as well. The new survey found that the governor also holds net-negative performance ratings on her handling of transportation (35-41), the MBTA (34-43) and migrants, refugees and asylum seekers (38-41), with between 20-24% of respondents unsure of her performance on each of these issues.

“While Massachusetts residents rate Healey favorably overall, our poll also highlights other areas of vulnerability,” Rhodes says. “Housing and transportation remain weak spots for the governor and joining these two perennial areas of concern is a new and very fraught issue. As the number of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers needing housing and other supports crests within the state, more than 40% of Massachusetts residents perceive that Healey is handling the issue badly.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst / WCVB Poll of 700 respondents from Massachusetts was conducted by YouGov Oct. 13-20. YouGov interviewed 788 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity years of education and home ownership status (own/rent/other). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice, home ownership status (3-categories), a two-way stratification of age (4-categories) and race (4-categories), as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories).

The margin of error within this poll is 5.1%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll