Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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With voters headed to the polls in less than three weeks to cast ballots for president, senator and U.S. representatives, a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll has found that strong majorities support a slate of measures that would improve voting access in Massachusetts, including making Election Day a state holiday and allowing people to register to vote and cast their ballot on Election Day.

“While turnout in the state is expected to be high, residents of the state are in strong support of several electoral changes that will likely lower the costs associated with voting in the Bay State and potentially boost voter turnout past the historic levels seen in recent elections,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Strong majorities of residents are in favor of making Election Day a state holiday (72%), offering same-day registration (64%) and allowing same-day registration during the early voting period (63%). These changes also enjoy majoritarian support across generational, class, gender and racial groups in the state – further evidence of the broad popularity of these changes. Whether the state legislature, which has been criticized for its lack of activity, will address these broadly popular policies in the upcoming term is left to be seen but voters in the commonwealth are speaking clearly and in unison that these are electoral changes that they would like to see happen sooner rather than later.”

Nteta notes that given the events of the 2020 election, and the purported controversy over voter fraud, many would expect that Republicans and Democrats would again find themselves in conflict on the issue of voting rights and electoral changes aimed at tackling institutional impediments to voting. However, he says that while the poll found supermajorities of Democrats express support for a range of electoral changes, “we find that a majority of Republicans also supports the establishment of a holiday on Election Day (56%). While not reaching a majority, we also find that more than 4 in 10 Republicans also support same-day registration in the state on Election Day (43%) and during the early voting period (46%).”

“With efforts to address the state’s election system continually stalling in the state legislature,” Nteta says, “given the broad support for these changes, in future elections we may find these electoral reforms in the hands of the voters of the commonwealth in the form of ballot questions.”

“Requiring people to register as a separate step in the voting process can be burdensome, especially for people with busy work schedules, child or elder care responsibilities, or trouble finding transportation,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Massachusetts residents want reforms that allow people to register and vote all in one step, either during early voting or on election day. These reforms, which have already been adopted in more than 20 states, are proven to increase voter turnout, especially among those who face obstacles to the ballot.” 

“Massachusetts residents endorse same-day registration in large part because they believe it will increase turnout in the commonwealth,” Rhodes says. “This is important, because it shows that Massachusetts residents understand that registration requirements are a substantial barrier to political participation. It also reveals a commitment among Massachusetts residents to promoting a healthy and participatory civic life. For example, young people – who face some of the biggest obstacles to the ballot due to irregular work schedules, lack of transportation, and unfamiliarity with voting – are the strongest supporters of measures to make voting more accessible in the commonwealth. If we want to engage young people in politics, it’s important to reduce administrative barriers to their participation.”

Rhodes warns, however, that “although same-day registration is a popular reform in the commonwealth, a substantial fraction (30%) of Massachusetts residents opposes it. The main reason for opposition is concern that this policy is difficult to administer. Arguably, this isn’t true – more than 20 states already administer this policy successfully, and Sec. of State William Galvin has said that the commonwealth can handle it. However, this concern means that proponents of same-day registration have work to do to educate the skeptics about the reform,” he says.

Redistricting

The new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 Massachusetts residents, conducted Oct. 3-10, also found that nearly two-thirds (63%) of Massachusetts residents would like to see an independent commission established to redraw state and congressional districts. Only 16% of those surveyed opposed such an idea.

“For most of American history, state legislators have drawn the boundaries of the districts that they represent,” Rhodes says. “This can set the stage for partisan gerrymandering to protect incumbents or magnify the majority party’s power. However, in recent years, several states have taken this power away from state legislators and given it to independent commissions comprised of experts and ordinary citizens. On average, independent commissions draw less gerrymandered districts. It looks like Massachusetts residents want the commonwealth to join the group of states with independent redistricting commissions. Time will tell whether a groundswell of support will move the state to embrace this significant reform, however.”

Healey… 2026?

The new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll also took a look at Gov. Maura Healey’s political future, as well, and following results that showed strong approval numbers for the first-term governor, it is unsurprising that her prospects in the Bay State continue to remain bright.

“With the commonwealth and nation focused on the upcoming presidential election, in two short years Gov. Healey will be up for reelection,” Nteta says. “Healey has repeatedly asserted that she will serve out her first term and has hinted that she will seek a second term as governor in 2026. In a set of hypothetical head-to-head matchups with a number of prominent Republican elected officials, Healey enjoys strong leads among residents of the Bay State. However, in what is likely music to the ears of the state’s Republican Party, across these matchups we find between 25-36% of respondents indicating that they are ‘not sure’ who they would vote for. The high level of uncertainty expressed by respondents may potentially open the door to a competitive gubernatorial election in 2026 and it remains to be seen which Republican candidates will step up to take on the challenge.”

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, looks to Washington – and the U.S. Senate – for a possible next step for Healey, and says her chances look strong there, as well.

“If either of the current U.S. Senators left office, Gov. Healy seems most likely to be preferred by voters to replace either of them, with 26% putting her as their first choice and 18% as second choice,” La Raja says. “Former Gov. Deval Patrick has the next most votes with 14% preferring him first, and then Boston Mayor Michelle Woo, who comes in at 13% and a good share of second-place votes.”

Should she ultimately choose to run for senate, one factor working in the 53-year-old Healey’s favor is her age.

“A clear majority (72%) of Massachusetts residents support an age limit for U.S. Senators,” La Raja says. “We don’t see much difference based on the age of the voter or what party they support. But, if we used the average age limit of 66 years that voters want, then both U.S. Sens. Markey, age 78, and Warren, age 75, would be out of a job.”

“With the state’s sitting senators in their late 70s, it is a matter of when – rather than if – the Democratic Party will need to turn the page to the next generation,” Nteta says. “While Warren is currently seeking her third term in office and Markey has indicated that he will run for reelection in 2026, if either Senator decides to step away from the office Gov. Healey would be the frontrunner to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. Senator.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 Massachusetts respondents was conducted by YouGov Oct. 3-10 and weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults subsetted on Massachusetts residents, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and homeownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on homeownership, the 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.8%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll