Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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The highest percentage of respondents in over four years now say that Massachusetts is on the “wrong track,” according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll. For the first time, more than 4 in 10 Massachusetts residents – 41% – say the Bay State is heading in the wrong direction, a five-point increase in negative sentiment since a May UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll and 13 points higher than a poll from August 2020, when the state locked down due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The survey of 700 Massachusetts residents, conducted Oct. 3-10, found that by far the issue on the top of respondents’ minds is housing.

“Once again, housing dominates Massachusetts residents’ perceptions of the most important issues facing the commonwealth,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Faced with skyrocketing housing costs and the limited availability of housing stock, Massachusetts residents are expressing frustration with the inadequacy of housing in the state. This is a huge issue for the commonwealth, as the availability of affordable housing is essential for attracting and retaining people – particularly young people – who represent the state’s economic and social future.”

The poll’s respondents “have their ‘minds on their money and their money on their minds,’” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll.

“Residents of the commonwealth are clearly concerned with the financial health of the state and the housing crisis and rising costs may be to blame,” Nteta says. “While more bullish on the state economy relative to their assessments of the nation’s economic well-being, less than a majority of residents (47%) view the state economy as good or excellent, the lowest level since October 2022. When asked what the most important problem facing the state is, residents overwhelmingly point to ‘housing’ but also mention economic related concerns such as ‘cost,’ ‘inflation,’ ‘affordable’ and ‘economy.’”

“Even in the solidly blue Bay State, there is clear concern about the state of the national economy and the direction of the country,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “In this environment, it is no surprise that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are jockeying to position themselves as the change candidate in this year’s presidential election.”

“According to the public, many share the blame for the complex housing problems,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “The highest percentage (22%) fault high interest rates. Additionally, landlords (16%), local governments (15%), contractors (16%) and the legislature (17%) equally share some blame – but only 6% say the problem is due to homeowners and just 8% attribute the problem to Gov. Maura Healey.”

To address the problem, La Raja says that “voters appear to want an ‘all of the above’ approach to solving the housing crisis.”

“Most popular is limiting increases on rents, with 67% supporting that option,” La Raja says, “although economists mostly tell us this could disincentivize housing construction. Other popular ideas include lowering the income threshold to qualify for affordable housing (61%), allowing towns to tax real estate transactions above $1 million to generate funds for affordable housing (62%) and providing tax breaks to developers to build more low-income housing (62%). A majority (53%) also favors the state’s plan requiring towns served by the MBTA to change zoning to allow for new multifamily housing.”

“As home prices and rents continue to skyrocket in the state, and legislative efforts to address the problem of housing seemingly have done little to decrease costs or the number of available and affordable homes and apartments, residents of the state are understandably open and supportive of a range of policies that may provide a solution to the housing crisis in the state,” Nteta says. “If there is a will, there may be a way.”

Migrant Dilemma and Right to Shelter

Among the many issues asked by the new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll is the impact of the influx of migrants to the commonwealth and the “right to shelter” law.

“Many would have thought that residents of the Bay State would express opposition to the state’s right to shelter law,” Nteta says. “On the contrary, our results find that a majority of residents (57%) continue to support this law and remain committed to ensuring that immigrant newcomers are given the necessary resources to protect the well-being and health of their families. Interestingly, while many have painted the right to shelter law as unpopular, we find majoritarian support for the law across gender, generational, educational, class and racial groups. The only groups in which majorities oppose the law are Republicans and Trump supporters and, given the relative dearth of political representation of these groups in Massachusetts, it remains likely that the right to shelter will remain a fixture of the state’s response to immigration for the foreseeable future.”

“There is a significant gender gap in support among Massachusetts residents for the right to shelter law, however,” Rhodes notes. “Women are 10 percentage points more likely to support it than men. This could reflect raw self-interest, as the law prioritizes the needs of homeless parents with children – more likely to be women – and pregnant women. Or it could represent a ‘compassion gap,’ in which women are more likely than men to favor policies that protect vulnerable populations. Either way, the gender gap helps explain why this policy is not more popular.”

The poll also asked respondents about recent changes to the right to shelter law, after the Healey administration worked with the Massachusetts State Legislature to attempt to address rising costs by placing restrictions on both the number of families in the state shelter system and the length of time that these families can stay in the system.

“In justifying these changes, Healey and leaders in the legislature argued that these modifications would benefit Massachusetts taxpayers,” Nteta says. “Residents of the state are of two minds concerning these efforts, though, as 38% of respondents view these changes as better for taxpayers, but an equal 38% of residents view these changes as worse for taxpayers. With Healey facing reelection in two years, she will need to work harder to convince voters that her efforts in tackling the migrant crisis have indeed been successful in solving this problem. If she fails at doing so, she may provide fodder to her critics that she is ill-equipped to respond to this crisis.”

Rhodes notes that the poll’s respondents “express considerable concern that changes to the law that were intended to reduce its costs are making things worse – not only for migrants, but also for taxpayers. This suggests that Massachusetts residents would like the state’s right to shelter policies to be generous. Whether they would continue to express this view if and as the costs increase, though, is an open question.”

Approval of Elected Officials

Although growing numbers of respondents say the state is on the wrong track, the new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll found that top statewide officials continue to hold relatively high approval ratings, with Gov. Healey at 58% approval, followed closely by Sen. Ed Markey (54%) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (53%). Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris shares a similarly high 55% approval rating in the Bay State.

“These ratings suggest that Massachusetts – a solidly Democratic state – is fairly satisfied with its Democratic leadership,” La Raja says, noting that the respondents’ views of elected officials carry over to the legislature, as well. “Most state legislatures across the nation don’t get very high approval ratings, often in the range of 30-40%. The Massachusetts legislature is on the higher end, with an approval of 46% – a lot better than the U.S. Congress, which was only 23% in the most recent national UMass Poll.”

As for the commonwealth’s top executive, Nteta notes that Healey remains in a strong position should she decide to run for reelection.

“In the wake of questions regarding the transparency of her office, the dual challenges posed by the migrant and housing crises and questions regarding whether she would accept a position in a potential Harris administration continuing to swirl, Gov. Healey remains a popular figure in the state with close to 6 in 10 residents expressing approval of the job that she is doing,” Nteta says. “She enjoys majoritarian approval among almost all demographic and political groups in the state with the unsurprising exceptions of Republicans, conservatives and Trump voters. These high approval ratings put the governor on pace for a successful reelection bid in 2026 if she so chooses to run once again.”

Abortion

The new UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll also asked respondents about their views on the future of abortion rights in the Bay State.

“Massachusetts residents remain overwhelmingly confident (70%) that a woman’s right to choose to terminate a pregnancy will remain safe, legal and accessible in the commonwealth,” Rhodes says. “This could reflect confidence in the state’s strongly pro-choice leadership, or skepticism that conservative Republicans could advance an abortion ban nationwide.”

Rhodes adds that the poll’s respondents “strongly support enshrining women’s right to choose to terminate a pregnancy in law. And this is not just about the right to choose – 67% of Massachusetts residents also want to protect health care professionals and pharmacists who provide reproductive health services from legal sanctions from other states.

“These results indicate that Massachusetts residents not only want to protect the rights of commonwealth residents, they also want to help safeguard women from other states who may need abortion access and the reproductive health care providers who serve them,” Rhodes says.

“Interestingly, older Massachusetts residents are even more likely than younger ones to indicate support for policies that protect abortion access,” Rhodes notes. “This may reflect different experiences with access to reproductive rights. Older Massachusetts residents have more experience with a constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy, and thus may feel the loss of this right due to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs more keenly. Thus, they may be more eager than younger Massachusetts residents to seek clear legal protections for this right.” 

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 Massachusetts respondents was conducted by YouGov Oct. 3-10 and weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults subsetted on Massachusetts residents, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and homeownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on homeownership, the 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.8%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll