Weekly Update (July 8, 2020) on the Cumulative U.S. Death Predictions From the COVID-19 Forecast Hub

Weekly update (July 8, 2020) on the cumulative U.S. death predictions from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, is available to discuss the updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state.

The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by Aug. 1 is 147,000, with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than 143,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 153,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, represents multiple models from teams of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions.

Reich says: “Our national-level ensemble forecast combines models from 18 different research groups and predicts that as a nation we will to see between 3,800 to 5,000 new COVID-19 deaths each week over the next month, with around 147,000 deaths by Aug. 1. We continue to see large uncertainty in the current forecasts, given the recent surge in cases but also reflecting the changing dynamics of testing, treatment and demographics of cases. Our ensemble predicts that seven states will see over 100 more COVID-19 deaths in the next four weeks than they reported in the previous four weeks: Florida, California, Texas, Arizona, South Carolina, Alabama and Louisiana."

For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab