Media Advisory

UMass COVID-19 Forecast Hub Director Offers Insight Into Predictions about Omicron Peak, Overall U.S. Deaths And More

Select media invited to Zoom event with Q&A period

                                                               

                                *** MEDIA ADVISORY ***

 

DATE:               Wednesday, Jan. 26

TIME:                1-2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time

WHAT:             UMass Amherst biostatistician Nicholas Reich, director of the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub,
                          will discuss the Omicron variant and how the media can best use and interpret information
                          from the Forecast Hub.

WHERE:           Virtual event on Zoom 

ZOOM LINK:   For Zoom Link information, contact Patty Shillington, pshillington@umass.edu, 305-606-9909

 

ForecastHub

In a virtual discussion with journalists who have followed the COVID-19 Forecast Hub’s weekly models during the pandemic, Nicholas Reich, professor of biostatistics at the UMass Amherst School of Public Health and Health Sciences, will discuss which states have peaked with the COVID-19 Omicron outbreak – “and with what certainty we can say that.”

Created in partnership with and funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the COVID-19 Forecast Hub builds an ensemble forecast that combines multiple models from prominent institutions around the world, as well as from independent data analysts. The hub has generated the most consistently accurate predictions of cases, deaths and hospitalizations during the pandemic.

To make predictions about the trajectory of Omicron, Reich is looking at hospitalizations, rather than case counts. “Hospitalizations are more fully reported than cases and are a better indicator of the stress on our health care system,” he says.

Models also suggest that cumulative reported U.S. deaths from COVID-19 will be closing in on the one-million-mark by the end of February.

Reich will also give a demonstration of the interactive visualizations and reports available to journalists and the public at the online hub so they can better understand and use the information as it is updated every week.

At the conclusion of Reich’s presentation, journalists will be able to participate in a question-and-answer session.