New UMass Amherst Poll Finds Harris with Three-Point Lead Nationally Over Trump

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

A new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found that Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump since becoming the de facto Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision to step away from his re-election bid. Harris’ 46-43 lead over Trump in the new poll, conducted July 29-Aug. 1, represents a seven-point swing from a January UMass Poll that found Trump with a 43-39 lead over Biden.

“For weeks after the first presidential debate in June, Democratic donors, prominent Democratic elected officials and members of the news media made the case that President Joe Biden faced long odds to defeat former President Donald Trump and called for Biden to step down,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “In the aftermath of Biden’s historic decision to forgo his re-election campaign, it seems as if Biden’s critics were indeed correct as his replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the White House. While there are still three months to go in the campaign, the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party must like their chances to maintain control of the White House and to send former President Trump to his second consecutive defeat in his quest to return to Pennsylvania Avenue.”

“Harris’s entry has really shaken up the presidential race,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Where Donald Trump was once heavily favored over Joe Biden, we now see Harris with a narrow lead. This appears to be driven by big shifts among young voters, African Americans and Latinx Americans toward Harris. Moderates also appear to have shifted dramatically to Harris. The 2024 presidential election is still extremely close, but it’s an entirely different race than it was a month ago.”

Compared to the previous poll from January, the new poll finds Harris improving Biden’s numbers by 11 points among Democrats, 17 points among independents, 12 points among moderate voters, 13 points among Latino voters, eight points among men, four points among women, 14 points among voters age 18-29, 11 points among voters age 30-54 and eight points among low-income voters.

“It looks like Harris has flipped independents to the Democratic column,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “In our January poll, Trump led Biden 42-20 among independents who lean toward neither party. In our latest poll, Harris now leads with this group, 37-28. Keep in mind that just 22% of these independents said they were enthusiastic about the election, so let’s see how many decide to vote.”

“Our results are in line with other national polling showing a striking upward trend for Democrats since President Biden stepped aside and party elites almost immediately coalesced around Vice President Harris as the new nominee,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Harris has improved upon Biden’s horserace standing in virtually every demographic subset, including a whopping 17% shift among independents and a notable 14 percentage point uptick among young voters. The three months between now and Election Day might as well be an eternity in political time and the last few weeks should remind us how quickly fortunes can change, but Kamala Harris and Democrats are riding a massive momentum shift right now.”

While the January UMass Poll found that 37% of Democrats said it would have been better if Biden had not sought re-election, Rhodes now sees the party’s base as a launchpad for Harris’ nascent campaign.

“Harris’ entry into the race has electrified Democrats,” he says. “Fully 66% of Democrats say that they are more enthusiastic about voting in the election now that Harris has become the presumptive Democratic nominee. About 37% of Republicans also report they are more enthusiastic now that Harris is the Democratic nominee, though it is unclear whether this is because they think Trump will be more likely to defeat Harris or because some Republicans may be more willing to cross-over to Harris than they would have for Biden. Either way, Harris’s entry into the race has transformed a race that many were indifferent about – or dreading – into something that many, especially Democrats, are looking forward to.”

As for how Trump’s campaign may react during the final 100 days until the election, Nteta and La Raja both say the poll’s results point to the GOP ticket being put back on its heels against the new opponent, but that a focus on the Biden administration may make a difference.

“With the Trump campaign seemingly unable to land on a strategy to slow down Vice President Harris’ momentum, and with less than 100 days until election day, our results suggest that connecting Harris to the Biden administration may be an effective means to attack Harris and bolster former President Trump’s chances to regain the presidency,” Nteta says. “Close to 8-in-10 non-Harris voters identify their concern that Harris will continue the policies of the Biden administration as the core factor in explaining their opposition to Harris. Whether Trump will be able to effectively turn Harris into Biden 2.0 remains to be seen, but if the Trump campaign fails to identify a better strategy, they are on pace to once again be on the losing end of a presidential election.”

“The Trump campaign is trying to label Harris as a San Francisco liberal, out of touch with the nation,” La Raja says. “The challenge for Trump, however, is that he is perceived as more extreme, which makes her seem moderate by comparison. When voters compare the two candidates, more of them are likely to say Harris is the moderate, 57% to 43%.”
 

Voters’ Views of the Candidates

The UMass Poll asked the 1,000 respondents their views on Harris and Trump, including their thoughts on how the candidates would handle various issues and represent different groups, as well as about the candidates’ personal qualities and the emotions the candidates elicit.

“With the nation in the midst of a generational shift with Baby Boomers, most notably President Joe Biden, ceding power, control and leadership to younger generations of Americans, Vice President Kamala Harris, a proud member of Generation X, has emerged as a poster child for the nation’s generational transition,” Nteta says. “Our results suggest that Harris voters view the vice president in this light, with two-thirds justifying their support for Harris based on their belief that she represents a new generation of leadership. With age and generational membership likely to become a primary issue in her race against 78-year-old former President Trump, Harris is well situated to mobilize voters concerned about a candidate close to his 80s assuming the most powerful job in the world.”

La Raja points to the distinct differences in voters’ views on issues as separating Harris and Trump.

“Voters see the two main candidates as stronger on issues that are typically associated with either party,” says La Raja. “Trump gets majorities of voters saying he will better handle the economy, taxes, crime and immigration. Harris has majorities saying she is better on climate change, reproductive rights, education and health care. Voters split on foreign policy, but more of them say Trump will handle the Israel-Hamas War better.

“Majorities of voters say Trump will better represent men, rural, white and wealthy Americans,” La Raja continues, “while majorities also say Harris will better represent women, people of color and LGBTQ+ Americans. Most interesting is the divide over who better represents middle class and working-class voters – Harris has a slight 52-48 edge in both of these groups in our poll.”

“We asked which candidate would handle specific issue domains more effectively and the results generally align with perceptions of party brands and priorities,” Theodoridis says. “Substantially more respondents express confidence in Harris on traditional Democratic issues like reproductive rights, climate change, education and health care.  However, the relatively small margins by which Trump edges Harris on the issues he has sought to emphasize, such as the economy, taxes, crime, immigration and foreign policy, are cause for concern in Mar-a-Lago. Similarly, Harris enjoys substantial advantages over Trump on traits like honesty, compassion and likeability and the two candidates are relatively close on characteristics like experience, strength and patriotism that the former president might’ve hoped to dominate. 

“Perhaps most concerning for team Trump,” Theodoridis continues, “is that nearly two-thirds of respondents say Kamala Harris is more moderate than the former president, which suggests that efforts to paint her as a liberal extremist have not stuck to date.”

“In explaining their presidential preferences, both Trump and Harris supporters express enthusiasm for their preferred candidates, but the way they think about their preferred candidate is very different,” says Rhodes. “The main reason why Trump supporters prefer him is that they believe he was a great president. They want to vote for him because of his first term accomplishments. In contrast, Harris supporters are excited about her because they believe she represents a new generation of leadership, moving beyond the political conflicts of the past.”

“What a difference a new candidate makes,” Nteta says. “With Vice President Harris taking the reins from President Biden and emerging as the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in 2024, respondents are now expressing more positive emotional reactions to a potential Harris presidency than a Biden second term with sizeable increases in feelings of hope, happiness and pride and decreasing feelings of fear, anger, sadness and disappointment. With three months to go until Election Day, the gamble to switch candidates seems to have paid off with voters expressing more positivity toward a Harris presidency.”

“Harris’s entry into the presidential race has transformed the emotional orientations of many Americans who were unenthusiastic about the prospects of a Biden re-election campaign,” Rhodes explains. “For example, in January only 27% of Americans said a Biden victory would make them hopeful, but in July, 38% said a Harris win would make them hopeful. More strikingly, Americans are much less negative about the idea of a Harris win than they were about a Biden victory. In January, 32% of Americans said a Biden victory would make them angry, but in July only 19% said a Harris win would make them feel that way. Fully 50% of Americans said a Biden victory would make them disappointed, but only 35% say a Harris win would make them feel that way. These are huge shifts that highlight just how much the energy around the election has changed.”

Meanwhile, Nteta says voters exhibit conflicting, but softening, emotions around a potential second Trump presidency.

“Our results suggest that voters are less emotionally triggered by the prospect of a second Trump presidency,” Nteta says. “On the one hand, Trump has witnessed a decline in positive emotions expressed by respondents when asked to imagine a Trump victory, with fewer respondents now indicating that they will feel hopeful, happy or relieved when compared to respondents to the same question in January 2024. However, in news that would be welcome to the Trump campaign, fewer respondents also indicate that they will feel fear, anger, disappointment or sadness in the wake of a Trump victory. Since the former president arrived on the political scene, he has proven adept at eliciting emotions from both his supporters and opponents, but it remains to be seen if he can continue to make that emotional connection with voters in 2024.”

In examining the contrast between Harris and Trump, Rhodes says the sudden shift of Harris into the spotlight and voters’ traditional notions of male and female stereotypes might be impacting their views of the candidates.

“Americans have pretty positive views of Kamala Harris,” Rhodes says. “In head-to-head comparisons with Trump, Harris is viewed as more compassionate, likable and energetic, as well as more moderate, intelligent and hard-working. However, Trump is perceived as more experienced, strong and patriotic. What’s going on? It could be that, because Harris is not well-known among many Americans, they are giving her the benefit of the doubt, and projecting positive characteristics onto her. From this perspective, Trump’s reputation is a hindrance – people know him well, and many don’t like at least some of his qualities. There also appears to be some gendered stereotyping going on: Harris receives high marks for qualities that are stereotypically ‘female’ – compassionate and likeable – while Trump is favored on qualities that are gendered as ‘male’ – like experienced, strong and patriotic.”
 

Looking Ahead – Harris’ VP Pick, Third-Party Spoilers and What’s at Stake?

With Harris making her selection for running mate this week, the new UMass Poll asked respondents their views of who would make the best choice among the names most frequently mentioned since Biden stepped aside and endorsed his own VP on July 21.

“While Democratic voters may not know who they want Kamala Harris to select as her vice president and running mate, they are relatively clear on what they want to see in a candidate,” Nteta says. “Democrats prefer a man over a woman, a white candidate rather than a person of color, a Christian rather than a Jewish candidate, a straight candidate more than a LGBTQ+ candidate, and for the candidate to be from a swing state more so than a red or blue state. It’s close, but Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly seems to ‘fit the suit’ and is seemingly what Democratic voters are looking for in a VP candidate.”

“Democratic voters seem to feel Harris’s running mate should be a white man from a swing state, but there is no clear collective favorite and the individuals under consideration are generally not especially well known,” Theodoridis says. “This means that, given the names that have been discussed, her choice is unlikely to leave many Democrats disappointed.  Her veep nominee will enter the campaign as something of a tabula rasa, and a race will commence between the Harris and Trump camps to define the pick.”

As for the potential impact of a third-party candidate this November, the new UMass Poll shows total support for the strongest of the possible spoilers, Robert Kennedy Jr., and others decreasing since January, but Nteta still says they may still play a factor in the election’s outcome.

“In what is likely going to be another close election, eyes are turning to the role that third-party candidates like independent Robert Kennedy Jr. may play in November’s presidential election,” Nteta says. “Our results suggest that Kennedy’s presence in the race continues to take potential votes from former President Trump, and thus it is no surprise that Trump has reportedly asked Kennedy to drop out of race and endorse his candidacy. With Kennedy likely to remain in the presidential contest, the nation may see a Kennedy once again playing a prominent role in placing a Democrat in the White House.”

La Raja agrees, but with caveats, saying that “Harris may benefit if Kennedy stays in the race – we see slightly more Kennedy voters preferring Trump. But other third-party candidates may hurt Harris if they stay in the race. This dynamic could change as the election approaches, with more left leaning voters choosing to vote for the Democrat, Harris, rather than another party on the left.”

Ultimately, La Raja says that voters see Nov. 5 as a “high stakes election.”

“Close to nine in 10 of them said the 2024 election is extremely or very important for the future of the nation,” he says. “In a polarized nation, many voters also see this election as critical for particular groups of Americans who feel threatened by either party winning. Sixty-nine percent say the election results are extremely or very important for the future of women, and 66% say the same about people of color. On the other side of the partisan divide, 49% say it is extremely or very important for the future of Christians, while 43% say the same about White people. And, ultimately, majorities of voters in both major parties are very enthusiastic about voting. For these reasons we expect a robust turnout from them.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents nationally was conducted by YouGov July 29-Aug. 1. YouGov interviewed 1,123 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on region (4-categories), 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), and a two-way stratification of race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.8%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll