Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

For the first time since 2020, a plurality of Massachusetts residents say the commonwealth is on the “wrong track,” according to a new statewide University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll. 

In the new survey of 800 respondents conducted Oct. 21-29, 43% say the Bay State is headed on the wrong track, while just 40% say the commonwealth is moving in the right direction.

“For years, residents of the commonwealth have expressed an optimistic view of the ‘state of the state’ with pluralities of the state’s citizens expressing the belief that things in Massachusetts were heading in the right direction,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “With the state continuing to endure a housing crisis, food and utility costs increasing, and the state losing billions of dollars in federal funding, the rosy outlook expressed by Bay Staters has seemingly ended – for the first time since 2020, we find more citizens believing that the state is on the wrong track than heading in the right direction.”

As Nteta suggests, a likely reason for the declining confidence in the state’s direction is an increasingly poor view of the Massachusetts economy – only 44% of the poll’s respondents rate the Bay State economy as either “excellent” or “good,” the lowest number since June 2022.

“Perceptions of the state economy are also more negative, with 55% viewing it as ‘fair’ or ‘poor’ now, compared with 49% in February,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Inflation and cuts in government services due to the federal shutdown are likely leaving Massachusetts residents with a dim view of the economy.”

“While majorities of Republicans, conservatives and Trump voters believe the state is moving in the wrong direction, we find that a majority of members of the working class and independents also express a similar sentiment,” Nteta says. “With the approval ratings of statewide officials such as Governor Healey, Senator Warren, Senator Markey and the state legislature remaining strong, the negative sentiment among citizens does not seem to be hurting prominent Democratic elected officials. However, if things do not turn around in the upcoming year, voters in the state may use the 2026 midterm as an opportunity to let their displeasure be heard in the halls of power.”

Meanwhile, as they have for the past five years, the poll’s respondents continue to take a poor view on the country’s direction and the national economy, as well.

“Only 22% say the nation is headed in the right direction, while nearly twice as many say Massachusetts itself is on the right track,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “It’s a story of greater confidence close to home, and more cynicism toward Washington. Even those who express doubts about the state’s trajectory are far more pessimistic when it comes to the country as a whole.”

“The first year of Trump’s second administration has been an eventful period for many in the commonwealth,” Nteta says. “With President Trump imposing record tariffs, the precipitous rise in the cost of food, gas and electricity, the volatility in the stock market, and a federal government shutdown that has dragged into a second month, it is by no means surprising that a majority of residents of the state overwhelmingly believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction (70%) and more than 1-in-3 rate the nation’s economy as ‘poor’ (36%). The pessimism about the nation’s well-being expressed by Bay Staters is at its highest levels since the fall of 2020, the height of the COVID pandemic.”

“Massachusetts residents overwhelmingly perceive that the nation is on the wrong track, and that sentiment is broadly shared across gender, educational, income and racial divides,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “A combination of economic concerns, anger about the government shutdown, and frustration with partisan politics at the national level are all likely contributing to broadly negative views of the nation’s trajectory.

“Massachusetts residents’ perceptions of the national economy have soured over the past eight months, with 77% now rating it as ‘fair’ or ‘poor’ compared to 70% in February,” Rhodes explains.

La Raja sees partisanship as one of the factors impacting the differing confidence levels toward the state and nation. “A majority of Democrats (57%) believes Massachusetts is moving in the right direction, but fewer than 1-in-10 Democrats think that the nation is,” he says. “Republicans, by contrast, are more sour on the state’s direction and positive about the nation.”
 

Housing and the Impacts of the Federal Government Shutdown and Funding Cuts

The latest UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll also asked respondents’ views on the most pressing issues facing the commonwealth and whether the federal government shutdown has impacted their lives.

“Since the end of the COVID pandemic, residents of the commonwealth have pointed to concerns about housing as among, if not the most, pressing problems facing the state,” Nteta says. “Our polling finds that housing remains at the top of the minds of Bay Staters as it emerges as the most frequently mentioned issue referenced by citizens. With housing costs continuing to rise and a lack of affordable housing continuing to define the housing market, elected officials in the state will need to tackle the housing crisis head on or likely face the wrath of voters next November.”

“At a time when a plurality of Massachusetts residents believe that the state is on the wrong track, it’s likely that popular frustrations are related to perceived shortages in affordable housing,” Rhodes says. “State policymakers are taking steps to try to address this difficult problem, but given the complexity and long time-horizons of solutions it’s unlikely this issue will fade from the public agenda anytime soon.”

Adding to Bay State residents’ economic woes is the federal shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.

“The federal shutdown has not yet hit home for most residents, but it’s starting to pinch more acutely among lower-income households that depend most on federal benefits,” La Raja adds. “This poll shows how Washington dysfunction ripples unevenly through Massachusetts. While the majority have escaped direct harm, roughly 1-in-3 low-income respondents report difficulty accessing basic federal programs. That disparity highlights the real-world stakes of a prolonged shutdown.”

Another fiscal blow to the commonwealth has come in decreased federal funding, and the new poll also asked respondents’ views of some of the possible steps the state government could take to back-fill some of these gaps.

“Massachusetts has been particularly hard hit by federal funding cuts, with the state poised to lose billions of dollars that otherwise would have funded health care, education, housing, transportation and environmental programs,” Nteta says. “Given this budget deficit, we find that Bay Staters recommend that the legislature and governor pursue common sense policies to get the state back on solid economic footing, with majorities supporting cutting spending (58%) or borrowing the necessary funds (53%). 

“However, in a sign that the populist messages of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Zohran Mamdani may have gained resonance in the state, close to 6-in-10 residents support raising state taxes on corporations to solve the budget crisis,” Nteta continues. “Gov. Healey and the state legislature have been given clear informtion by their constituents about how to best address the budget deficit, and time will tell if they listen to the people or devise their own solution to this pressing problem.”
 

Firearms, Fear, Phones and the Flag

Among the other issues surveyed by the latest UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll were respondents’ views on possible firearm restrictions, fears of political violence, cell phone use in schools and potential changes to the Massachusetts state flag.

“Despite fierce national debates, Massachusetts voters remain broadly united on tightening gun laws in sensitive places like schools and polling locations,” La Raja says in reference to 71% of the poll’s respondents supporting such restrictions, while an even higher number – 75% – support so-called red-flag laws, allowing school administrators and health care providers to petition a court to temporarily take firearms away from people who are believed to pose a danger to themselves or others.

“It’s one of the few policy areas where there’s near-consensus across gender, education and even party lines,” he says. “These results highlight how Massachusetts differs from much of the country. In a state where firearms are already tightly regulated, voters still favor going further with the aim of preventing violence in schools and public spaces.”

A growing fear of politically driven violence may be a part of such views on firearm restrictions, as the new poll found that 90% of respondents fear political violence nationally.

“Bay Staters certainly sense that fear and loathing have come to dominate American politics, as 9-in-10 think the nation is politically divided and are concerned about political violence in the United States,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “But there is also concern about political divisions and the potential for political violence here in the commonwealth. While most respondents are not concerned about political violence in their local communities, 60% worry that it could strike Massachusetts, and a plurality sees both the commonwealth and their local communities as politically divided.”

Changing gears, the poll once more asked about an issue that has been gathering support in many communities recently, prohibiting cellphone use in schools.

“In schools across the commonwealth, administrators, teachers, and parents are debating how to deal with the impact of cell phones on student learning and engagement,” Nteta says. “More than 30 states have banned or restricted the use of cell phones in public schools, and our poll continues to find widespread support for similar restrictions in Massachusetts, with 75% expressing support for such a ban. These bans are supported across gender, generational, class and racial divides, and even elicit majoritarian support among Democrats, independents and Republicans. Given the bipartisan popularity of this ban, it is likely that the state legislature and Gov. Healey may soon make Massachusetts the next state to ban the use of cell phones in K-12 public schools.”

Finally, the poll asked about the possibility of changing the Massachusetts state flag.

“For some time, there has been political controversy over the Massachusetts state flag, which some view as discriminatory toward Native Americans,” Rhodes explains. “Last year, the state legislature established a commission to make recommendations on the redesign of the flag, which recently proposed three alternatives for further deliberation. Our survey shows that, in a head-to-head test between the current flag and these alternatives, Massachusetts residents overwhelmingly prefer the current flag, with 64% choosing it. 

“Longstanding symbols are hard to change,” Rhodes concludes, “and our findings suggest that critics of the current flag have not yet shifted majority opinion in the commonwealth away from it.” 
 

Methodology

For this University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll, YouGov interviewed 800 adults from Massachusetts, 416 of which were likely Democratic primary voters, providing two samples of interest. These respondents were sampled based upon a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of Massachusetts adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the main sample, the cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight for the main sample.

For the 416 Massachusetts likely Democratic primary voters, a sampling frame of 2022 Vote Smart Massachusetts Democratic primary voters was employed. The cases were post-stratified on a three-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories) and race (2-categories) to produce the final weight for this sample of Democratic primary voters.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.1% among all respondents and 6.1% among Democratic likely voters.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll