Rob DeConto Co-authors Study Linking Current Levels of Global Warming and Sea-level Rise

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Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s and is now the leading contributor to global sea-level rise from the cryosphere (the portions of Earth's surface where water is in solid form). This accelerating melt has heightened concern about ice-sheet stability and intensified pressure to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, as outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. 

To add a sense of urgency to this concern, a new Nature-published study co-authored by Rob DeConto, provost professor of the College of Natural Sciences's Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, warns that even the current level of warming (+1.2 °C) could commit the planet to several meters of sea-level rise over the coming centuries—posing serious risks to coastal communities and overwhelming adaptation efforts. The study suggests that, to avert these long-term impacts, global temperatures may need to be reduced to around +1 °C or lower (though more research is urgently needed to define a truly safe threshold for ice sheet preservation).

"It is widely acknowledged that these policy-relevant temperature targets, such as those adopted in the Paris Agreement, are not necessarily inherent and precise thresholds that cannot be exceeded without catastrophe. Indeed, some have argued that the discourse around ‘tipping points’ has the potential to confuse and distract from urgent climate action, in part because there remain large uncertainties about where various tipping points might lie. Despite these concerns, however, such policy targets serve as valuable benchmarks to limit cumulative harm, whilst also recognising that every fraction of a degree of warming will have important consequences."

— Rob DeConto and colleagues

Learn more: Nature, Daily Mail, Common Dreams, Daily Sun (Bangladesh), The Irish Times, Phys.org, ScienceBlog.