Healey Approval & 2024 Election - Toplines & Crosstabs : Department of Political Science : UMass Amherst

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Gov. Maura Healey Continues to Enjoy Strong Support Among Massachusetts Residents According to New UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll

Poll Highlights

The governor sees a slight decrease in support since October, while the poll also finds comprehensive, bipartisan support for a ballot measure giving the auditor the authority to audit the Massachusetts State Legislature

The full press release can be found posted below and at the UMass Amherst Office of News & Media Relations website.

Toplines & Crosstabs posted below.

Methodology

Field Dates: May 17 – May 30, 2024 | Sample: 700 Respondents | Margin of Error: 4.4%

YouGov interviewed 741 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of Massachusetts adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and own or rent. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as stratifications of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

Toplines

University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB

May 2024 Massachusetts Poll

Toplines

University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB

May 2024 Massachusetts Poll

Field Dates:	May 17 – May 30, 2024
Sample:	700 Respondents
Margin of Error:	4.4%

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and own or rent. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as stratifications of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

UMass Poll Directors/Fellows

Prof. Tatishe M. Nteta, Ph.D. – Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. – Co-Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Jesse Rhodes, Ph.D. – Co-Director jrhodes@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Alex Theodoridis, Ph.D. – Co-Director atheodoridis@umass.edu

Lane Cuthbert - Graduate Research Fellow lcuthbert@umass.edu

Adam Eichen - Graduate Research Fellow aeichen@umass.edu

Maddi Hertz - Research Fellow mhertz@umass.edu

Donald Snyder - Graduate Research Fellow desnyder@umass.edu

Graham Backman – Undergraduate Research Fellow gbackman@umass.edu

Bel Corder - Undergraduate Research Fellow icorder@umass.edu

Emily DeGowin - Undergraduate Research Fellow edegowin@umass.edu

Kaitlyn Soper - Undergraduate Research Fellow ksoper@umass.edu

CJ Tatsis – Undergraduate Research Fellow charlestatsi@umass.edu

Approval (N=700)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job?

	May 2024			Oct. 2023			Apr. 2023			Oct. 2022
	App.	Disapp.	Not Sure	App.	Disapp.	Not Sure	App.	Disapp.	Not Sure	App.	Disapp.	Not Sure
Governor Maura Healey	54%	32%	14%	58%	27%	15%	57%	24%	19%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Senator Edward Markey	53%	30%	17%	50%	31%	19%	57%	28%	15%	53%	35%	11%
Senator Elizabeth Warren	54%	35%	12%	55%	33%	12%	54%	34%	12%	54%	39%	7%
Mass State Legislature	51%	33%	16%	54%	29%	16%	57%	28%	15%	54%	34%	12%
President Joe Biden	48%	48%	3%	49%	46%	5%	50%	46%	4%	53%	45%	2%

One Word Healey (N=700)

Top 10 Replies when we asked "What one word would you use to describe Governor Maura Healey"

Competent
Liberal
Good
Governor
Fair
Unsure
Strong
Great
Fine
Smart

Healey Issue Performance (N=700)

Thinking back on Maura Healey’s first ten months as the Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, please indicate how well you think that Governor Healey has handled… (Oct. 2023)

Thinking about Maura Healey’s tenure as the Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, how well do you think that Governor Healey has handled… (May 2024)

	May 2024	Oct. 2023	May 2024	Oct. 2023	May 2024	Oct. 2023	May 2024	Oct. 2023	May 2024	Oct. 2023
	Very	Well	Somewhat	Well	Not Too	Well	Not Well	At All	Don’t	Know
The Economy	9%	10%	35%	38%	21%	12%	19%	20%	15%	20%
Migrants, Refugees, and Asylum Seekers	8%	7%	27%	31%	17%	15%	31%	26%	17%	20%
Climate Change	9%	10%	30%	27%	13%	13%	14%	13%	34%	37%
Education	11%	12%	38%	36%	14%	12%	15%	13%	22%	28%
Taxes	7%	9%	28%	34%	24%	11%	22%	20%	19%	26%
Housing Shortage and Affordability	3%	6%	22%	22%	31%	27%	29%	24%	15%	22%
Transportation	7%	8%	34%	27%	21%	21%	18%	20%	19%	24%
Child Care	8%	9%	29%	27%	16%	13%	12%	13%	35%	40%
Reproductive Rights	28%	N/A	28%	N/A	7%	N/A	11%	N/A	25%	N/A

Which Governor Issue (N=700)

For each of the following issues, please indicate whether you believe that former Governor Charlie Baker or current Governor Maura Healey better handled …

	May 2024	Oct. 2023	May 2024	Oct. 2023
	Former Governor Charlie Baker		Governor Maura Healey
The Economy	63%	61%	37%	39%
Climate Change	44%	46%	56%	54%
Reproductive Rights	34%	37%	66%	63%
Child Care	40%	44%	60%	56%
Taxes	61%	54%	39%	46%
Education	51%	49%	49%	51%
Transportation	53%	51%	47%	49%
Housing	59%	51%	41%	49%

Which Governor Represent (N=700)

From the following groups, please indicate whether you believe that former Governor Charlie Baker or current Governor Maura Healey better represented …

	Former Governor Charlie Baker	Governor Maura Healey

Women	25%	75%
Democrats	26%	74%
Republicans	84%	16%
The Middle Class	53%	47%
The Working Class	53%	47%
Small Business Owners	59%	41%
People of Color	36%	64%
LGBTQ+ People	20%	80%

Transparency (N=700)

Recently there has been debate about the extent to which elected officials should be required to provide information regarding their official duties when requested by the media or the public. Do you support or oppose requiring elected officials to . . .

	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Neither	Somewhat Oppose	Strongly Oppose
disclose the names of donors to independent committees that fund non-campaign expenses such as inauguration celebrations?	49%	24%	22%	5%	1%
disclose the names of individuals and/or groups they meet with in their official duties?	46%	25%	22%	6%	2%
provide information concerning their travel destinations when leaving the state?	39%	28%	24%	7%	2%
disclose the names of individuals and/or groups that they spoke with over the phone when conducting official business?	36%	29%	26%	8%	2%
disclose emails sent to and from their official email address?	35%	25%	29%	8%	4%

Most Important Issue for 2024 Election (N=700)

From the list below, please select the issue that will be most important to you when voting in the 2024 general election.

The Economy	22%
Health care	8%
Taxes	4%
Education	2%
Climate Change	7%
Supreme Court Appointments	5%
Abortion	8%
Immigration	16%
Crime	3%
The Health of our Democracy	22%
Regulation of Cryptocurrency	0%
Israeli-Hamas War	4%

Election Day Change (N=700)

Please indicate whether you would favor or oppose the following...

	Strongly Favor	Somewhat Favor	Somewhat Oppose	Strongly Oppose	Don’t Know
allowing people to register to vote and cast their ballot on Election Day?	45%	25%	9%	14%	8%
allowing people currently serving a prison sentence the right to vote?	24%	22%	14%	29%	12%

Strongly

Favor

Somewhat

Favor

Somewhat

Oppose

Strongly

Oppose

Don’t

Know

allowing people to register to vote and cast their ballot on Election Day?

45%

25%

14%

allowing people currently serving a prison sentence the right to vote?

24%

22%

14%

29%

12%

2024 Ballot Questions (N=700)

There are a number of ballot initiatives that may appear on the 2024 general election ballot. Thinking ahead to the 2024 election, how would you vote on a potential ballot question that . . .

	Would Vote Yes	Would Vote No	Don’t Know
would legalize natural psychedelic substances and permit persons over the age of 21 to grow, possess, and use them?	40%	41%	19%
would remove the requirement that in order to graduate and receive a high school diploma, students must pass the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System exams (MCAS) in English, Math, and Science?	44%	36%	20%
would provide the State Auditor the authority to audit the state legislature?	64%	5%	31%
would gradually increase the minimum hourly wage for tipped workers to match the state minimum wage by 2029?	69%	16%	15%

Republican Senate Primary (N=292)

Only asked of respondents who indicated that they identify as a Republican or Independent.

If the Massachusetts Republican Senate Primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would you support in the Massachusetts Republican Senate Primary?

	Without Leaners	With Leaners
Robert Antonellis	15%	19%
Ian Cain	2%	5%
John Deaton	9%	15%
Aaron Packard	4%	9%
Other	3%	16%
Don’t Know	67%	36%

Senate General Election Matchups (N=700)

Senator Elizabeth Warren will be running for reelection to the U.S. Senate in the 2024 general election. If Senator Elizabeth Warren was running against [Candidate A] in the 2024 general election for the U.S. Senate, who would you be most likely to vote for?

Senator Elizabeth Warren	50%
Robert Antonellis	23%
Not Sure	18%
Would not Vote	8%

Senator Elizabeth Warren	48%
Ian Cain	24%
Not Sure	19%
Would not Vote	9%

Senator Elizabeth Warren	47%
John Deaton	24%
Not Sure	21%
Would not Vote	8%

Senator Elizabeth Warren	48%
Aaron Packard	23%
Not Sure	21%
Would not Vote	8%

Next Senator (N=434)

Only asked of respondents who indicated that they identify as a Democrat or Independent.

Looking ahead, if one of the two U.S. Senators from Massachusetts decides to retire, resign, or not seek reelection please rank the top three candidates from the list below you would be most likely to vote for in a Democratic Senate primary election.

	1^st	2^nd	3^rd
Governor Maura Healey	21%	16%	17%
Former Representative Joseph P. Kennedy III	11%	12%	9%
Representative Ayanna Pressley	14%	8%	9%
Attorney General Andrea Campbell	3%	10%	10%
Former Governor Deval Patrick	12%	14%	16%
Representative Seth Moulton	10%	11%	9%
Representative Lori Trahan	5%	3%	6%
Representative Jake Auchincloss	4%	4%	6%
Mayor Michelle Wu	15%	15%	13%
Lieutenant Governor Kim Driscoll	5%	6%	5%

2024 Presidential General Election (N=700)

If the 2024 election for president were held today, which one of the following candidates would you support?

	Without Leaners	With Leaners
Joe Biden	47%	48%
Donald Trump	26%	27%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	7%	9%
Other	4%	5%
Not Sure	7%	3%
Probably Won’t Vote	9%	9%

One Word Kennedy (N=700)
Top 10 Replies when we asked "What one word would you use to describe Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?"

Nut

Crazy Good

Unsure Insane Idiot

Weird Fair Interesting Worms

Demographic Breakdown of May 2024 University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll (N=700)


White	76%
People of Color	24%
HS or less	32%
Some Coll.	14%
Coll. Deg.	35%
Postgrad	20%
18-29	21%
30-54	38%
>55	41%
Liberal	41%
Moderate	39%
Conservative	20%
Men	48%
Women	52%
Biden	68%
Trump	32%
Democrat	57%
Independent	18%
Republican	25%

Crosstabs

University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB

May 2024 Massachusetts Poll

Crosstabs

University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB

May 2024 Massachusetts Poll

Field Dates:	May 17 – May 30, 2024
Sample:	700 Respondents
Margin of Error:	4.4%

UMass Poll Directors/Fellows

Prof. Tatishe M. Nteta, Ph.D. – Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. – Co-Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Jesse Rhodes, Ph.D. – Co-Director jrhodes@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Alex Theodoridis, Ph.D. – Co-Director atheodoridis@umass.edu

Lane Cuthbert - Graduate Research Fellow lcuthbert@umass.edu

Adam Eichen - Graduate Research Fellow aeichen@umass.edu

Maddi Hertz - Research Fellow mhertz@umass.edu

Donald Snyder - Graduate Research Fellow desnyder@umass.edu

Graham Backman – Undergraduate Research Fellow gbackman@umass.edu

Bel Corder - Undergraduate Research Fellow icorder@umass.edu

Emily DeGowin - Undergraduate Research Fellow edegowin@umass.edu

Kaitlyn Soper - Undergraduate Research Fellow ksoper@umass.edu

HEALEY APPROVAL (% APPROVE OF JOB)

	Category	May 2024	Oct. 2023	Apr. 2023
Gender	Men	54%	58%	51%
	Women	55%	58%	62%
Age	18-29	40%	55%	49%
	30-54	57%	56%	60%
	>55	59%	62%	57%
Education	HS or less	44%	49%	50%
	Some Coll.	54%	55%	59%
	Coll. Deg.	54%	59%	59%
	Postgrad	71%	73%	62%
Income	<$40k	55%	63%	54%
	$40k-$100k	48%	54%	60%
	>100k	59%	66%	59%
Party ID	Dem.	75%	80%	75%
	Ind.	29%	36%	37%
	Rep.	26%	31%	29%
Ideology	Lib	76%	82%	75%
	Mod.	52%	54%	56%
	Cons.	22%	26%	23%
Race	White	53%	56%	58%
	POC	58%	64%	56%
2020 Vote	Biden	80%	87%	79%
	Trump	21%	28%	23%

APPROVAL (% APPROVE OF JOB)

	Category	Markey	Warren	State Leg.	Biden
Gender	Men	52%	51%	48%	47%
	Women	54%	56%	55%	50%
Age	18-29	38%	45%	46%	40%
	30-54	56%	56%	55%	46%
	>55	58%	56%	51%	55%
Education	HS or less	40%	42%	41%	36%
	Some Coll.	46%	49%	51%	43%
	Coll. Deg.	56%	55%	54%	49%
	Postgrad	73%	76%	64%	73%
Income	<$40k	47%	55%	52%	48%
	$40k-$100k	50%	51%	48%	43%
	>100k	60%	57%	54%	51%
Party ID	Dem.	74%	79%	69%	72%
	Ind.	27%	27%	28%	20%
	Rep.	23%	17%	27%	14%
Ideology	Lib	79%	80%	71%	70%
	Mod.	48%	48%	47%	46%
	Cons.	20%	21%	23%	14%
Race	White	53%	52%	51%	47%
	POC	51%	60%	53%	52%
2020 Vote	Biden	81%	83%	76%	78%
	Trump	20%	12%	21%	12%

HEALEY ISSUE PERFORMANCE (% HANDLED WELL)

	Category	Economy	Migrants	Climate	Education	Taxes	Housing	Transport	Child Care	Reprod. Rights
Gender	Men	49%	34%	40%	51%	35%	22%	39%	38%	51%
	Women	40%	37%	38%	49%	35%	28%	43%	35%	61%
Age	18-29	37%	40%	34%	52%	35%	23%	39%	42%	48%
	30-54	45%	33%	40%	49%	37%	21%	40%	32%	57%
	>55	48%	36%	41%	49%	34%	30%	43%	39%	60%
Education	HS or less	36%	24%	34%	42%	24%	22%	41%	35%	42%
	Some Coll.	39%	36%	28%	52%	35%	20%	40%	38%	54%
	Coll. Deg.	46%	41%	44%	48%	39%	26%	40%	35%	61%
	Postgrad	61%	46%	47%	64%	47%	33%	44%	43%	73%
Income	<$40k	39%	33%	40%	44%	28%	30%	41%	40%	54%
	$40k-$100k	39%	33%	34%	47%	34%	23%	38%	32%	51%
	>100k	54%	38%	46%	52%	40%	22%	42%	38%	64%
Party ID	Dem.	62%	50%	52%	62%	49%	34%	51%	46%	73%
	Ind.	23%	16%	24%	33%	23%	14%	31%	20%	43%
	Rep.	20%	17%	22%	33%	13%	12%	26%	28%	28%
Ideology	Lib	65%	56%	52%	65%	57%	39%	52%	44%	78%
	Mod.	39%	28%	38%	49%	31%	19%	40%	37%	54%
	Cons.	18%	15%	22%	29%	10%	14%	25%	27%	29%
Race	White	45%	35%	40%	50%	35%	24%	38%	37%	59%
	POC	44%	39%	37%	47%	35%	28%	52%	38%	50%
2020 Vote	Biden	65%	52%	57%	63%	48%	38%	53%	48%	79%
	Trump	17%	11%	19%	25%	11%	9%	21%	20%	31%

TRANSPARENCY (% SUPPORT)

	Category	Disclose Donor Names	Disclose Meeting Names	Provide Travel Information	Disclose Phone Names	Disclose Emails
Gender	Men	74%	72%	71%	65%	61%
	Women	71%	70%	64%	64%	57%
Age	18-29	54%	59%	58%	61%	54%
	30-54	72%	65%	61%	59%	52%
	>55	84%	83%	78%	72%	69%
Education	HS or less	62%	60%	62%	55%	49%
	Some Coll.	62%	68%	65%	68%	68%
	Coll. Deg.	78%	73%	68%	67%	59%
	Postgrad	89%	87%	75%	74%	71%
Income	<$40k	63%	63%	67%	64%	54%
	$40k-$100k	76%	73%	65%	64%	57%
	>100k	80%	78%	74%	69%	67%
Party ID	Dem.	75%	73%	69%	66%	61%
	Ind.	62%	66%	60%	61%	53%
	Rep.	75%	70%	69%	65%	59%
Ideology	Lib	80%	78%	68%	71%	64%
	Mod.	71%	70%	68%	65%	60%
	Cons.	78%	76%	72%	63%	62%
Race	POC	78%	74%	69%	66%	63%
	White	56%	60%	62%	60%	48%
2020 Vote	Biden	80%	78%	70%	69%	62%
	Trump	84%	77%	75%	68%	69%

BALLOT QUESTIONS (% WOULD VOTE YES)

	Category	Legalize Psychedelics	MCAS	Audit Legislature	Increase Min. Wage
Gender	Men	44%	42%	69%	67%
	Women	37%	46%	59%	72%
Age	18-29	47%	46%	49%	77%
	30-54	48%	45%	58%	71%
	>55	29%	42%	78%	63%
Education	HS or less	36%	44%	58%	64%
	Some Coll.	50%	54%	55%	80%
	Coll. Deg.	36%	38%	70%	68%
	Postgrad	47%	47%	70%	74%
Income	<$40k	36%	40%	59%	64%
	$40k-$100k	38%	49%	63%	70%
	>100k	42%	40%	69%	71%
Party ID	Dem.	49%	43%	61%	82%
	Ind.	35%	35%	59%	58%
	Rep.	24%	53%	74%	48%
Ideology	Lib	55%	41%	65%	85%
	Mod.	36%	46%	65%	68%
	Cons.	18%	49%	72%	45%
Race	White	40%	45%	67%	67%
	POC	41%	40%	55%	78%
2020 Vote	Biden	48%	43%	69%	82%
	Trump	21%	51%	76%	47%

2024 ELECTION MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

	Category	Econ.	Health	Taxes	Educ	Climate	Court	Abort.	Imm.	Crime	Health Dem.	Crypto	Israel- Hamas
Gender	Men	25%	7%	5%	2%	9%	4%	1%	17%	3%	24%	1%	2%
	Women	20%	9%	2%	2%	5%	5%	13%	15%	2%	20%	0%	5%
Age	18-29	15%	12%	5%	2%	8%	2%	13%	5%	3%	23%	1%	9%
	30-54	29%	10%	4%	3%	8%	5%	5%	10%	4%	18%	0%	3%
	>55	20%	4%	3%	1%	4%	5%	7%	27%	2%	25%	0%	1%
Education	HS or less	23%	8%	7%	2%	3%	3%	5%	24%	3%	17%	0%	4%
	Some Coll.	15%	18%	4%	1%	10%	2%	11%	11%	1%	21%	1%	5%
	Coll. Deg.	27%	6%	1%	3%	5%	4%	7%	16%	3%	23%	1%	3%
	Postgrad	18%	5%	3%	0%	13%	10%	10%	6%	1%	30%	0%	4%
Income	<$40k	23%	9%	4%	1%	6%	6%	5%	21%	3%	17%	1%	4%
	$40k-$100k	24%	11%	3%	2%	4%	4%	8%	20%	2%	19%	0%	3%
	>100k	20%	6%	3%	3%	8%	7%	8%	14%	4%	23%	0%	2%
Party ID	Dem.	17%	10%	3%	2%	10%	7%	11%	5%	2%	31%	0%	4%
	Ind.	32%	11%	4%	2%	4%	2%	2%	18%	3%	17%	0%	6%
	Rep.	28%	3%	7%	1%	2%	2%	3%	41%	5%	6%	1%	2%
Ideology	Lib	17%	7%	0%	2%	10%	9%	11%	3%	1%	33%	0%	6%
	Mod.	27%	9%	5%	2%	6%	2%	6%	16%	2%	21%	0%	3%
	Cons.	27%	3%	5%	0%	1%	3%	2%	47%	4%	7%	1%	0%
Race	White	21%	7%	3%	2%	7%	5%	7%	19%	2%	23%	0%	4%
	POC	28%	13%	6%	1%	6%	5%	8%	7%	3%	18%	0%	4%
2020 Vote	Biden	16%	6%	3%	1%	9%	8%	11%	4%	2%	36%	0%	3%
	Trump	30%	3%	3%	1%	0%	1%	3%	48%	6%	6%	0%	0%

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (% SUPPORT)

	Category	Trump	Biden	Kennedy
Gender	Men	33%	45%	8%
	Women	21%	52%	9%
Age	18-29	20%	40%	20%
	30-54	24%	47%	9%
	>55	33%	54%	2%
Education	HS or less	37%	32%	8%
	Some Coll.	15%	49%	16%
	Coll. Deg.	30%	49%	7%
	Postgrad	11%	74%	6%
Income	<$40k	31%	43%	7%
	$40k-$100k	30%	44%	7%
	>100k	24%	54%	10%
Party ID	Dem.	4%	78%	8%
	Ind.	27%	15%	14%
	Rep.	79%	5%	6%
Ideology	Lib	4%	75%	9%
	Mod.	28%	45%	9%
	Cons.	77%	9%	3%
Race	White	29%	49%	8%
	POC	19%	46%	11%
2020 Vote	Biden	3%	85%	5%
	Trump	85%	2%	5%

Demographic Breakdown of October 2023 University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll (N=700)


Men	48%
Women	52%
18-29	22%
30-54	37%
>55	41%
HS or less	32%
Some Coll.	15%
Coll. Deg.	34%
Postgrad	19%
<$40K	23%
$40K-$100K	42%
>$100K	35%
Democrat	52%
Independent	23%
Republican	25%
Liberal	46%
Moderate	32%
Conservative	23%
White	78%
People of Color	22%
Biden	67%
Trump	33%

Press Release

Contact:
Tatishe Nteta, nteta@umass.edu
Jesse Rhodes, jrhodes@umass.edu
Ray La Raja, laraja@umass.edu
Alex Theodoridis, atheodoridis@umass.edu
Jared Sharpe, jsharpe@umass.edu

June 5, 2024

Gov. Maura Healey Continues to Enjoy Strong Support Among Massachusetts Residents

According to New UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll

The governor sees a slight decrease in support since October, while the poll also finds
comprehensive, bipartisan support for a ballot measure giving the auditor the authority
to audit the Massachusetts State Legislature

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

AMHERST, Mass. – Well into the second year of her first term, Gov. Maura Healey
continues to receive strong approval for her performance from Massachusetts residents,
though she may face some headwinds on her handling of the housing and migrant crises,
according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.

“The honeymoon does not seem to be over for Gov. Maura Healey,” says Tatishe Nteta,
provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “While
many assumed that nearly a year and half into her tenure that the governor would
experience a significant dip in her approval ratings, residents of the state still give her
high marks with 54% approving of the job that Healey has done. This is only a 4-
percentage point decline from last October and a 3-percentage point dip from April 2023.
Healey has maintained her positive approval numbers in the midst of persistent housing
and migrant crises, unexpected revenue shortfalls, controversies surrounding her travel
out of the state and concerns about the conflict of interest surrounding her nominee for
the Supreme Judicial Court. As Healey weighs whether to run for re-election in 2026, she
can rest assured that she remains a popular figure in the Bay State.”

Nteta notes, however, that while Healey’s approval numbers remain strong, there are
some areas of concern for the governor.

“Healey’s approval ratings among people of color, liberals, Biden voters and in
particular, young people – key members of the state’s Democratic coalition – have all
declined since last October,” he says. “Whether this is a trend remains to be seen, but
moving forward she may want to focus more attention on her core constituencies to
protect against any challenges from within her party in 2026 and beyond.”

Nteta adds that “it is not all roses for Healey, however,” as she also faces serious
concerns over her performance on two critical issues increasingly facing Bay State voters
– the increasing costs of housing and the rise in the numbers of migrants, refugees and
asylum seekers coming to the commonwealth.

“As respondents continue to point to housing as the state’s biggest problem, they also
take fault with Healey’s handling of the housing crisis, with 6 in 10 respondents
indicating that Healey has handled housing ‘not too well’ (31%) or ‘not well at all’
(29%),” Nteta explains. “While the usual demographics of Republicans, Trump Voters
and conservatives give Healey low marks on housing, it is more concerning that key
members of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition – including women, people of
color, young people, liberals and Biden voters – also express little faith in Healey’s
handling of housing. The success of Healey’s first term is likely going to be judged by
how she responds to the crisis in housing, but a year and half into her term it seems as if
residents in the state are giving her a failing grade.”

Nteta adds that while the poll’s respondents point to Congressional Republicans and
President Biden as the political leaders most responsible for the migrant crisis, “that does
not mean that Healey is off the hook.”

“Respondents judge Healey’s handling of the migrant crisis harshly with close to half of
all residents believing that Healey has handled the crisis ‘not too well’ (17%) or ‘not well
at all’ (31%),” he says. “As the state is poised to spend close to $1 billion in support of
the ‘right to shelter’ law and a low likelihood that Congress will address immigration
reform in 2024, Healey and the Mass State Legislature may need to propose bold
solutions to the problem or face the wrath of voters at the ballot box in 2024 and
beyond.”

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the
poll, points to the respondents’ views of the top issues facing the U.S. as proof of the
seriousness of the migrant situation for Healey.

“The unexpected influx of migrants has agitated even voters in Massachusetts, which
typically does not face the same situation as U.S. border states like Texas and
California,” La Raja says. “In this election year, immigration was ranked as a top issue at
16%, coming in a close third after the economy (22%) and the health of democracy
(22%).”

Ultimately, Nteta says that the poll’s respondents’ own words bode well for how
residents view the governor, though.

“Judging by the most frequently used words to describe Maura Healey – words that
include ‘competent,’ ‘good,’ ‘smart,’ ‘fair’ and ‘strong’ – residents clearly believe that
they are in good hands under the stewardship of Gov. Healey,” Nteta says. “One of the
most popular words used is ‘liberal.’ While many progressives in the state may question
whether the governor has exhibited a true commitment to pursuing progressive policies,
in a solidly blue state that leans toward the left of the ideological spectrum, being called a
‘liberal’ is a badge of honor that Healey likely wears with pride.”

Possible 2024 Ballot Questions

The UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 residents of the commonwealth, conducted May
17-30, also gauged respondents’ views on a number of ballot issues that Bay State voters
may face on Election Day this November.

“With the 2024 election only five months away, opinions toward potential ballot
questions are beginning to take shape,” Nteta says. “The leader out of the gate is the
ballot question championed by State Auditor Diana DiZoglio that seeks to give the
auditor the authority to audit the Massachusetts State Legislature, with 64% of
respondents indicating that they would vote ‘yes.’ This ballot question is popular across
all demographic and political groups in the state and is shockingly an issue that liberals
(65%), conservatives (72%), Biden voters (69%) and Trump voters (76%) agree on.
While there is still time until Election Day, opponents of this ballot question have an
uphill battle to convince voters that this change is not warranted.”

The poll found even stronger overall backing (69%) for increasing the minimum wage of
tipped workers in the commonwealth, though support for the proposal is markedly less
bipartisan as slightly fewer than half (48%) of Republicans endorse the increase.
“Given rising costs of living in the Bay State, it comes as no surprise that there is
widespread support with close to 7 in 10 residents likely to vote for gradual increases to
the minimum hourly wage for tipped workers to match the state minimum wage,” Nteta
says. “The restaurant industry is likely to mount a defense of the status quo, but, with
only 16% in opposition and 15% undecided, opponents of this ballot question likely need
a Herculean effort to turn the tides against its passage.”

One potential ballot measure for which respondents expressed much less enthusiasm is
that which would legalize natural psychedelic substances for growth, possession and use
by people over age 21.

“For many residents of the commonwealth, the legalization of marijuana was thought to
be a slippery slope that would result in a number of illicit and illegal drugs becoming part
of the mainstream,” Nteta says. “These fears may become a reality as the movement for
the legalization of psychedelics gains steam across the nation and arrives in the Bay
State. Residents of the commonwealth are split over whether to legalize natural
psychedelic substances with 40% in support and 41% in opposition. The lack of decisive
support for a ballot question usually spells doom for its passage, but supporters of this
change have yet to make their case to the broader public and there is still time until the
November election. If successful, Massachusetts will become only the second state in the
union to legalize these substances.”

Looking at the 2024 Elections, and Beyond

With the race for the White House looking like a rematch between President Joe Biden
and former President Donald Trump, the UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll again examined
respondents’ views of the presidential race and the most critical issues facing voters this
November.

“Among Massachusetts voters, not surprisingly, Joe Biden wins easily with 48% of the
vote compared to 27% for Donald Trump,” La Raja says. “The gender gap in the
presidential vote for Trump exists big time in Massachusetts: one-third of men in the state
say they will vote for Trump compared to just one-fifth of women.”

La Raja adds, “Partisan loyalties predict how Massachusetts voters will cast their ballots
in the upcoming presidential election. It’s a mirror image – 78% of Democrats say they
will vote for Biden and 79% of Republicans say they will support Trump. Many
independents are still undecided, but among those who have made their choice most favor
Trump (27%) compared to Biden (15%), who gets nearly the same percentage as Robert
Kennedy Jr. (14%).”

He notes that the potential for Kennedy to pull off what would be a stunning upset in his
family’s native state is quite slim.

“Even with the power of the Kennedy name in Massachusetts, Robert Kennedy Jr. gets
just 9% of the total Massachusetts electorate,” La Raja says. “The explanation for this is
straightforward – when we asked folks to describe Kennedy the two words that stands out
are ‘Nut’ and ‘Crazy.’ We found that young people in Massachusetts are twice as
attracted to Kennedy as a candidate than middle aged residents – 20% of voters in the
range of 18-29 years old said they will vote for Kennedy, compared to just 9% for those
30-54 years old. The ones who are least likely to support Kennedy, though, are older
voters above 55 years old who were alive when Kennedy’s father was running for
president – just 2% of them said they would support RFK Jr.”

The poll’s respondents indicated two main issues will be driving their votes this
November.

“Going into the 2024 election, Massachusetts residents rank both the economy and the
health of our democracy at the top of their issues of concern – both garner 22% of voters’
worries,” La Raja says. “In our previous national polling, Americans put the economy as
their top concern and rank democracy as less important compared to Massachusetts
voters. It is not surprising to see this difference, though, as more educated voters, liberals
and Democrats all rank democracy pretty high, and Massachusetts has more of these
kinds of voters than most other states.”

La Raja also notes while protests over the Israeli-Hamas War may have been roiling
university campuses recently, only 4% of Massachusetts voters said this was the most
important issue in the 2024 election, and only 9% of voters 18-29 noted the war as their
most important issue.

The poll also found that Bay State residents continue to support calls for same-day voter
registration.

“Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly support allowing people to register to vote and
cast a ballot at the same time as 70% favor same-day registration, which is in place in 22
states,” La Raja says. “This reform should make it easier for people to vote, especially
younger residents who are often not registered on election day.”

One slate of questions asked by the poll concerned transparency regarding elected
officials and respondents overwhelmingly supported all of the measures about which they
were asked. Six in 10 respondents support the disclosure of emails sent and received from
officials’ email addresses; approximately two-thirds support the disclosure of names of
individuals and/or groups that speak with officials over the phone regarding official
business (65%) and to provide information concerning their travel destinations when they
leave the state (67%); and more than 7 in 10 support disclosing the names of individuals
and/or groups that meet with officials regarding their official duties (71%) and disclosing
the names of donors to independent committees that fund non-campaign expenses, such
as inauguration celebrations (73%).

Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and
co-director of the poll, says the poll respondents’ concerns over the nation’s democracy
and their views on transparency could ultimately strengthen the Democratic Party’s hold
on Massachusetts government.

“With the health of our democracy rivaling the economy as the top issue for
Massachusetts voters, and overwhelming majorities of respondents supporting Election
Day registration and a slew of transparency measures for elected officials,” he says,
“Democratic politicians in the Bay State are wise to emphasize national Republican
standard bearer Donald Trump’s authoritarian and anti-democratic rhetoric to further
strengthen their hold on the Massachusetts electorate.”

The poll also found continued support for the state’s two U.S. senators, as one seeks re-
election this fall, and the other is looking ahead to a re-election bid in 2026.
“While Robert Antonellis appears to have a solid base of committed supporters, no clear
frontrunner has emerged in the GOP race to challenge incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Warren
in November,” Theodoridis says. “The largest chunk of Bay State Republicans and
independents indicate they don’t yet know which candidate they are leaning toward
supporting. With Warren polling ahead of Biden in terms of favorability, being
competitive in November will likely be an uphill climb no matter which candidate wins
the nomination.”

“As Sen. Warren is poised to win her third term this fall as senator from the
commonwealth and Sen. Ed Markey has already announced his plan to run for reelection
in 2026, Warren and Markey will likely represent the state for years to come,” Nteta says.
“Looking to the future, though, there are a number of prominent Democrats in the state
who would be likely to run if either Warren or Markey decides to retire, resign or not
seek re-election. If an open Senate seat were to become a reality, Gov. Healey has
emerged as the prohibitive favorite in a Democratic Senate primary election, followed by
Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and former Gov. Deval Patrick. Whether Healey would want
to trade her corner office in the State House for an office in the U.S. Capitol remains an
open question, but if the opportunity arises, she would be the prohibitive frontrunner
among Democratic hopefuls.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 Massachusetts
respondents was conducted by YouGov May 17-30. YouGov interviewed 741 total
respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset.
The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of Massachusetts
adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file,
public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and
Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020
CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The
matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for
inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity,
years of education and own or rent. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of
the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.
The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as
stratifications of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-
categories) to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 4.4%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Contact:
Tatishe Nteta, nteta@umass.edu
Jesse Rhodes, jrhodes@umass.edu
Ray La Raja, laraja@umass.edu
Alex Theodoridis, atheodoridis@umass.edu
Jared Sharpe, jsharpe@umass.edu

Healey Approval & 2024 Election - Toplines & Crosstabs