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The carbon mitigation forecast for the Energy Transition Portfolio is shown below in Figure 16.
Key Insights - Energy and GHG Impacts
- The Green Building & Renovation Standards Solution becomes a meaningful part of the Portfolio, but does not reach its full impact until 2040, since it only affects new and renovated buildings.
- Strategic Energy Management has a much smaller carbon mitigation impact compared to the version modeled in the Current System with Renewable Fuels and Offsets Portfolio. This is due to a) projects would be saving energy in an inherently more efficient system and b) projects in this portfolio are specifically focused on saving electricity demand where carbon saving potential is lower, even though cost savings is higher (relative to thermal cost savings).
- The Onsite Solar PV and Fleet Electrification solutions provide relatively small contributors to the overall mitigation Portfolio since neither directly affect campus onsite combustion.
- The LTHW and GHX solutions save the bulk of GHG emissions in the plan but would not be fully online until 2032.
- Sewage Heat Recovery, Air-source Heat Pumps, Solar Thermal and Decentralized Modern Wood Thermal Solutions are all relatively small mitigation contributors individually. None of these solutions are modeled to come online until 2032 when the LTHW system would be fully installed.
- Renewable Fuels are still included in this portfolio, but they are modeled to be used for peak demand rather than core operations.
Commodity Impacts
The following charts compare key energy supply and production metrics between the BAU (black lines) and the Energy Transition Portfolio (light blue lines).
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Key Insights – Commodity Impacts
- Electricity Generation would continue until 2030 and phase out completely by 2032.
- Electricity Purchases will ramp down with a short-term focus on energy efficiency, but then ramp up significantly as electricity demand from the new system comes online and co-generation capacity is ramped down.
- Natural Gas demand is almost eliminated by 2032. A minimal amount of natural gas is expected for thermal peaking. ULSD and LNG are eliminated by 2032.
- Renewable Energy Credits will be required from onsite and offset renewable electricity projects to eliminate Scope 2 Emissions. The number of voluntary RECs required will spike in the 2030s matching the increase in electricity purchases. This number will start rapidly dropping in the years leading up to 2050 in line with the Massachusetts goal of 100% renewable electricity. A key assumption is that utility provides will purchase and retire compliance RECs on behalf of their customers.