June 2, 2020
Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, has released the COVID-19 Forecast Hub's updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state.
The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by June 27 is 127,000 with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than 121,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 137,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state: https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub.
The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, represents multiple models from teams of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions. In addition to gathering models to make easy side-by-side comparisons of different forecasts, Reich’s team has implemented an “ensemble” forecast that offers a more accurate picture of the future than any single model can project.
Reich says, “Our national-level ensemble forecast combines models from nine different research groups and predicts that as a nation we will continue to see between 5,000 to 7,000 new COVID-19 deaths each week over the next month. There is quite a bit of increased uncertainty right now, with social distancing measures being relaxed in many states and with protests potentially leading to increased exposure risk in many locations. It continues to be vitally important to monitor multiple models, as they each rely on different data sources and methodologies for detecting changes in the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases.”
For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab.