March 13, 2020
Associate Professor of Biostatistics Nicholas Reich and postdoctoral researcher Thomas McAndrew have released the latest results of a weekly survey of over 20 infectious disease modeling researchers to assess their collective expert opinion on the trajectory of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. Participants are modeling experts and researchers who have spent a substantial amount of time in their professional career designing, building, and/or interpreting models to explain and understand infectious disease dynamics and/or the associated policy implications in human populations.
Their predictions for the current week, in summary, conclude that a four-fold increase in reported cases is likely to occur in the US in the coming week and that community-level spread will occur in the US within 3 weeks. They also estimate that only between 4% and 30% of all COVID-19 infections had been confirmed as of March 9th. This implies that thousands of infections, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, have gone unrecognized or undiagnosed. Experts predict hospitalizations for COVID-19 will peak in May.
This is the fourth in a series of surveys conducted weekly by the Reich Lab team. Follow the team on Twitter at @reichlab and @tomcm39 for the latest updates and future surveys.