Jayash Paudel Seminar

Department of Resource Economics Fall 2026 Seminar Series

Jayash Paudel, University of Oklahoma

Title: Adaptation to Environmental Stress: Evidence from Himalayan Mountaineering

Abstract: Estimates of the economic damage from environmental change hinge on how much agents can adapt, and on whether that adaptation is endowed or purchased. I study 41,835 climber-expedition records on 103 Himalayan peaks above 7,000 meters from 1979 to 2024, linked to summit-day air pressure reconstructed from reanalysis at each peak's own coordinates and summit elevation. I exploit within-peak deviations in summit-day pressure from its day-of-year climatology, net of peak-year means. A one-standard-deviation decline in summit-day oxygen availability lowers the probability of summiting by 5.9 percentage points on a base of 60 percent and raises mortality by 21 percent of its mean. Wind at the summit has a comparable effect, reducing success by 5.7 percentage points per standard deviation. Climbers raised above 3,700 meters bear 37 percent less of this penalty than those raised at sea level, but this advantage is compositional: it disappears when I compare climbers on the same expedition or Nepali high-altitude workers to one another. Other attributes, including expedition support, prior experience on the peak, and predicted ability, raise summit probability without reducing sensitivity to conditions. Only supplemental oxygen both raises performance and attenuates the response to environmental conditions, although its use is endogenous, and its buffering effect cannot be separated from selection. The findings caution against inferring adaptation from cross-sectional differences in exposure and suggest that policies that facilitate access to protective inputs may be more effective than relying on presumed endogenous adaptation.