Bernard Morzuch
Time-Series Econometrics, and Applied Microeconomics
221 Stockbridge Hall
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, MA 01003

Interests and Publications

Interests in health economics, production economics, econometrics, and time series. Publications include:

"Forecasting Hospital Emergency Department Arrivals," Presented at the 26th Annual Symposium on Forecasting, Santander, Spain, June 11-14, 2006. (Adobe Acrobat format)

Statistics for Environmental Professionals, May 2005 (Adobe PDF format)

Bernard J. Morzuch and P. Geoffrey Allen, "Using Misspecification Tests On Within-Sample Models And Considering The Trade-Off Between Level And Significance And Power To Promote Well-Calibrated, Post-Sample Prediction Intervals," paper presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, June 15-19, 2003, Merida, Mexico.

Weller, C. and B. Morzuch. “International Financial Contagion: Why Are Eastern Europe’s Banks Not Failing When Everybody Else’s Are?” Economics of Transition. Vol. 8, No. 3, 2000, pp. 639-663.

Du, F., B. Morzuch, J. Moffitt, and P. Bhowmik. “Statistical Analysis of Pest Tolerant Response with Application to Corn Weed Control.” American Journal of Alternative Agriculture. Vol. 15, No. 3, 2000, pp. 137-141.

Machuga, S., R. Pfeiffer, and B. Morzuch. “Measurement Error and Simultaneity in the Returns-Earnings Relation.” Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting. Vol. 8, 2000, pp. 139-160.

Allen, P.G. and B.J. Morzuch. "Comparing Probability Forecasts Derived From Theoretical Distributions." International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 11, 1995, pp. 147-157.

Adams, G., P.G. Allen, and B.J. Morzuch. “Probability Distributions of Short-Term Electricity Peak Load Forecasts." International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 7, 1991, pp. 283-297.

Morzuch, B.J. and G.A. Ruark. "Principal Components Regression to Mitigate the Effects of Multicollinearity." Forest Science. Vol. 37, No. 1, March 1991, pp. 191-199.

P.J. Vittum and B.J. Morzuch. "Effect of Soil pH on Japanese Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Oviposition in Potted Turfgrass. " Journal of Economic Entomology. Vol. 83, No.5, October 1990, pp. 2036-2039.

Dismukes, R., P.G. Allen, and B.J. Morzuch. "Participation in Multiple-Peril Crop Insurance: Risk Assessments and Risk Preferences of Cranberry Growers." Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Vol. 18, No. 2, October 1989, pp. 109-117.

Kronrad, G. and B.J. Morzuch. "The Forestry Incentives Program and Forest Yield Taxation in Massachusetts: Do We Need the Subsidy?" Journal of Forestry. Vol. 730, December 1985, pp. 753-754.

"Notes In Econometric Time-Series Estimation," 10th Polish-American Summer School in Economics Forecasting The Polish Economy, July 2-15, 2000.
(Available in Adobe PDF format)

"Narrowness of Prediction Intervals Revisited," Presented at the 20th Annual Symposium on Forecasting, Lisbon, Portugal, June 21-24 2000.
(Available in Adobe PDF format)