March 10, 2026

In a new article for The Conversation, David Mednicoff outlines the four aspects of the Iran war that he is monitoring to better understand the future of the Middle East. In the piece, Mednicoff identifies the goals of the Trump administration, the shifting sands of Gulf state relations with the US, Iranian leadership, and the outlook of the Iranian people as key levers that will impact long-term outcomes in the region. Simultaneously, Mednicoff cautions against forecasting possible outcomes too far into the future given the complexity of the conflict and the region.