‘Experience,’ ‘Trust’ Drive Bay State Primary Voters’ Support of Markey over Moulton

A statewide University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll conducted Aug. 5-12 finds Democratic U.S. Senator Ed Markey likely to withstand the challenge of U.S. Representative Seth Moulton in the Sept. 1 primary, as more than 4 in 5 likely Democratic primary voters approve of the senator’s work in Washington on behalf of the commonwealth.

The poll also finds Markey’s age may actually be advantageous to the incumbent in the eyes of voters, while Moulton’s past comments on transgender issues may have caused early damage to his campaign’s chances.

“With just two weeks until Massachusetts Democrats head to the polls, Sen. Markey enters the final stretch of the primary campaign with substantial advantages over Rep. Moulton across key Democratic constituencies, including women (65-24), liberals (71-25), people of color (49-29), college-educated voters (62-29), middle-aged voters (67-23), and younger voters (53-22),” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “These are many of the same constituencies that powered Markey to victory in his 2020 primary contest against Joe Kennedy III, and our results suggest that these core elements of the Massachusetts Democratic electorate remain firmly in Markey’s camp in 2026.”

“Markey has attempted to turn one of Representative Seth Moulton’s central lines of attack—Markey’s age—into an argument for experience and effectiveness, and our results suggest that strategy is connecting with Democratic primary voters,” Nteta says. “An overwhelming 91% say Markey is the more experienced candidate, and when asked to describe Markey in a single word, ‘experienced’ is the second most frequently mentioned response. Rather than viewing Markey’s long tenure in Congress as a liability, Democratic primary voters appear to be seeing it as a strength—giving Markey another clear advantage in the final weeks of the campaign.”

“Ed Markey’s considerable lead in the Democratic primary race is attributable to several interrelated factors,” surmises Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “First of all, as the incumbent, Markey enjoys considerable reputational advantages over Moulton—simply put, more Democratic primary voters know who he is. Second, Markey is not only well known, he’s popular. Our survey shows that Markey is perceived as reliably progressive, experienced and trustworthy. Third, Markey benefits from strong support from the Democratic Party and the high-profile endorsements from the state’s most prominent Democratic leaders. For Democratic primary voters who might have been on the fence, this strong signal of support from the state Democratic Party likely proved decisive.”

• Field Dates:                 August 5 –12, 2026
• Sample:                         800 Registered Voters  |  445 Self-Identified Democratic Primary Voters
• Margin of Error:         4.4% (All Respondents)  |  5.8% (Self-Identified Democratic Primary Voters)

YouGov interviewed 833 registered voters 18+ from Massachusetts, 462 of which were self- identified Democratic primary voters, providing two samples of interest. The initial 833 respondents were matched down to a sample of 800 registered voters, yielding 445 Democratic primary voters, to produce the main dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) and subsetted on registered voters in the state, with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

For the main sample, the cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (2-categories), and education (4-categories), a 2-way stratification on race (2-categories) and education (4-categories), and a single stratification on home ownership to produce the final weight for the main sample.

For the 445 Massachusetts self-identified Democratic primary voters, a sampling frame of 2022 Vote Smart Massachusetts Democratic primary voters was employed. The cases were post-stratified on a three-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), and race (2-categories), to produce the final weight for this sample of Democratic primary voters.

Caveats on State Primary Polling, Looking Toward November and Beyond
The team behind the UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll notes that while meticulous efforts and methodology sculpt all non-partisan polling, there are substantial complications to accurately surveying state primaries. See the the press release for this poll for more details. 

Read more about the UMass Poll's methodology

Read more about the contributing members of the UMass Poll team

View the toplines from the Aug 17, 2026 Massachusetts Residents Public Opinion Poll regarding the Democratic U.S. Senate Primary

Primary Participation by Party (N=800)

Do you intend to vote in the Massachusetts Primary Election on September 1, 2026?

Democratic Senate Primary Vote Choice (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

If the 2026 Democratic Senate primary were held today which one of the following candidates would you vote for?

Candidate Qualities Ranking (N=444)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

From the list below, please rank the top three qualities that are the most important to you when deciding who you will vote for in the 2026 Democratic Senate Primary.

Candidate Trust (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

Which Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate do you trust more to represent you on the issues you care about?

Group Representation by Candidate (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

Which Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate do you think would do a better job of representing the following groups?

Perceived Candidate Differences (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

During the campaign for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, some have said that there are very few differences between Senator Ed Markey and Representative Seth Moulton in what each stands for. Others have suggested that there are important differences between the two candidates in what each stands for. What about you, would you say that there are important differences in what Ed Markey and Seth Moulton stand for?

Differences Open Text – Markey Supporters (N=189)*

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

In a sentence or two, please discuss what you see as the most important differences between Senator Ed Markey and Representative Seth Moulton.

Theme 1. Progressive Ideology and Policy Alignment (N=52, 27.5%)

The largest theme among Markey supporters is Markey’s progressivism, which supporters prefer to Moulton’s perceived moderation.

Illustrative response: “Ed Markey is a tried and true progressive. Moulton is too moderate for me.”

Theme 2. Serving Ordinary People, Not Donors and Special Interests (N=31, 16.4%)

These respondents indicate they prefer Markey because, in their view, he stands for ordinary people, while Moulton serves special interests.

Illustrative response: “Markey cares about every day people in is on the ground meeting with and working for them all of the time. I’ve never seen Moulton do this, never seen Moulton speak at a pride day”

Theme 3. Experience, Seniority, and Proven Track Record (N=26, 13.8%)

Respondents in this theme treat Markey’s long tenure as an asset, citing his legislative skill, institutional knowledge, and documented voting record.

Illustrative response: “I think Ed Markey’s experience, understanding of what his constituents want and how to make it happen in a difficult political climate.”

Theme 4. Conviction, Consistency, and Trustworthiness (N=26, 13.8%)

This theme highlights Markey’s perceived character strengths, while contrasting them with Moulton’s perceived limitations.

Illustrative response: “Seth Moulton comes across as not genuine, arrogant, entitled and not trustworthy. Ed Markey continues to be grounded yet feisty, well spoken, has a proven track record and determined to do a good job for the people of MA and Americans in general.”

Theme 5. Defense of Trans and LGBTQ+ Rights (N=18, 9.5%)

For these respondents, Markey’s strong support for transgender people is the leading reason for supporting his candidacy.

Illustrative response: “Senator Markey supports trans people, Seth Moulton does not.”

Theme 6. Don’t Know / Unclear / No Response (N=36, 19.0%)

Roughly one in five Markey supporters who wrote something did not supply an interpretable reason.

Illustrative response: “I’m familiar with Ed Markey and have no idea who Seth Moulton is.”

Chart: Thematic analysis – Markey supporter open text responses (Unit: percent; see CSV: differences_themes_markey_supporters.csv)

Differences Open Text – Moulton Supporters (N=62)*

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

In a sentence or two, please discuss what you see as the most important differences between Senator Ed Markey and Representative Seth Moulton.

Theme 1. Generational Change and a Younger, More Modern Candidate (N=15, 24.2%)

Respondents in this theme argue that, because Moulton is younger, he has a better grasp of contemporary problems and a more current view of society.

Illustrative response: “Seth Moulton is a number of years younger than Ed Markey and I think he’s more in touch with younger people and has a more modern view of society.”

Theme 2. Too Long in Office: Term Limits and Entrenchment (N=14, 22.6%)

Respondents in this category focus on criticism of Markey’s long tenure in office, arguing that Markey is a careerist who is unresponsive to constituents, captured by special interests, or insufficiently combative against Trump and the Republican Party.

Illustrative response: “Age. Markey’s been in office since 1976, representing Massachusetts’ 7th Congressional District. it’s time for change”

Theme 3. Ideological Positioning and Perceived Extremity (N=13, 21.0%)

These respondents cite ideology as their reasoning for supporting Moulton, though there is some disagreement on Moulton’s ideology. Most supporters in this category describe Markey as too far left and Moulton as a reasonable moderate better matched to middle-class priorities.

Illustrative response: “Overall, Moulton is center-left & Markey is far-left.”

Theme 4. Trans Athletes and Willingness to Break with Orthodoxy (N=5, 8.1%)

Supporters in this theme agree with Moulton’s substantive position on transgender participation in women’s sports and, in several cases, admire the political courage they see in his willingness to absorb criticism for departing from party consensus.

Illustrative response: “Moulton is a veteran and has a strong background in foreign policy. I also appreciated very much his willingness to take heat for not toeing the line on transgender issues in sports. That wasn’t easy and cost him some I’m sure.”

Theme 5. Military Service, Foreign Policy, and Israel (N=5, 8.1%)

A small but coherent theme centers on Moulton’s Marine Corps service and the foreign-policy credibility respondents draw from it.

Illustrative response: “I believe Seth Moulton has more recent military background to address current war issues. I believe he is more progressive in today’s middle class hardships.”

Theme 6. Don’t Know / Unclear / No Response (N=10, 16.1%)

The final theme of substantive responses states no usable rationale — typically a bare acknowledgment that the candidates differ, without specifying how or which difference matters.

Illustrative response: “They’re two different people with different plans”

Chart: Thematic analysis – Moulton supporter open text responses (Unit: percent; see CSV: differences_themes_moulton_supporters.csv)

Perceived Candidate Ideology (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

How would you describe each of the following Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate?

Perceived Candidate Qualities (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

Who do you think is best described by the following characteristics — Seth Moulton or Ed Markey?

Candidate Action, Preclude Factors (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

Thinking about your decision in the upcoming primary election in Massachusetts, would any of the following impact your likelihood of voting for a candidate? The candidate . . .

Democratic Senate Candidate Familiarity (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

In the past few months, how much have you heard about . . .

Satisfaction with Democratic Senate Candidates (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

How satisfied are you with the two candidates running for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate?

2032 Democratic Senate Primary Candidate Preference (N=445)

Only asked of Democrats and Pure Independents who indicated that they would participate in the 2026 Democratic Primary.

Senator Ed Markey has announced that if elected in 2026, this will be his last term in the U.S. Senate and that he would not seek reelection in 2032. Thinking ahead to the 2032 election, from the following list please select the candidate that you would be most likely to vote for in the 2032 Democratic Senate primary election.

2026 U.S. Senate General Election (N=800)

John Deaton is the only candidate running in the Republican primary election for the U.S. Senate. If John Deaton was running against [Insert Candidate] in the 2026 general election for the U.S. Senate, who would you be most likely to vote for?

John Deaton vs. U.S. Senator Ed Markey

John Deaton vs. Representative Seth Moulton

Markey Approval Over Time, All Respondents (N=800)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job?

Markey Approval Among Self-Identified Democratic Primary Voters (N=445)

Demographic Breakdown

View the crosstabs from the Aug 17, 2026 Massachusetts Residents Public Opinion Poll regarding the Democratic U.S. Senate Primary

Democratic Senate Primary (With Leaners)

Which Candidate Do You Trust to Represent on Issues

Different v. Similar

Markey Approval Among All Respondents (% Approve)

Markey Approval Among Self-Identified Democratic Primary Voters

Demographic Breakdown of August 2026 University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll