National Poll January 2024 Toplines & Crosstabs - Feb 16, 2024 : Department of Political Science : UMass Amherst

Table of contents

National Poll January 2024

All press releases related to these toplines and crosstabs can be found at the UMass Amherst Office of News & Media Relations website.

Toplines & Crosstabs below.

Methodology

Survey: Field Dates: January 25, 2024 – January 30, 2024 | Sample: 1064 Respondents | Margin of Error: 3.7%

YouGov interviewed 1064 respondents, none of whom were matched out to produce the final dataset. The unmatched cases were weighted to a sampling frame using propensity scores. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The unmatched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership status. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame, and then post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four- way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

January 2024 National Poll – All Crosstabs

Crosstabs

University of Massachusetts Amherst

January 2024 National Poll

Field Dates:	January 25, 2024 – January 30, 2024
Sample:	1064 Respondents
Margin of Error:	3.7%

voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The unmatched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership status. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame, and then post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

UMass Poll Directors/Fellows

Prof. Tatishe M. Nteta, Ph.D. – Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. – Co-Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Jesse Rhodes, Ph.D. – Co-Director jrhodes@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Alex Theodoridis, Ph.D. – Co-Director atheodoridis@umass.edu

Lane Cuthbert - Graduate Research Fellow lcuthbert@umass.edu

Adam Eichen - Graduate Research Fellow aeichen@umass.edu

Maddi Hertz- Research Fellow mhertz@umass.edu

Donald Snyder - Graduate Research Fellow desnyder@umass.edu

Graham Backman – Undergraduate Research Fellow gbackman@umass.edu

Bel Corder - Undergraduate Research Fellow icorder@umass.edu

Emily DeGowin - Undergraduate Research Fellow edegowin@umass.edu

Kaitlyn Soper - Undergraduate Research Fellow ksoper@umass.edu

2024 GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (% SUPPORT)

		Trump	Haley	Other	Don’t Know

Gender	Men	70%	17%	5%	8%
	Women	62%	18%	6%	15%
Age	18-29	51%	23%	5%	20%
	30-54	67%	14%	5%	13%
	>55	71%	18%	6%	6%
Education	HS or less	67%	13%	4%	15%
	Some Coll.	68%	19%	5%	9%
	Coll. Deg.	63%	21%	8%	8%
	Postgrad	68%	25%	3%	4%
Income	<$40k	68%	12%	6%	13%
	$40k-$100k	75%	14%	2%	9%
	>100k	60%	30%	7%	4%
Party ID	Dem.	--	--	--	--
	Ind.	41%	24%	11%	24%
	Rep.	82%	14%	2%	3%
Ideology	Lib	39%	41%	12%	8%
	Mod.	58%	21%	8%	12%
	Cons.	83%	12%	2%	3%
Race	White	73%	16%	4%	8%
	African American	41%	21%	15%	22%
	Latino	54%	16%	8%	22%
	Asian	25%	57%	8%	9%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	22%	49%	22%	8%
	Trump	83%	12%	2%	2%

2024 PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION (% SUPPORT)

		Trump	Biden	Kennedy Jr.	Other	Not Sure

Gender	Men	49%	37%	8%	4%	3%
	Women	38%	42%	9%	5%	6%
Age	18-29	34%	42%	11%	9%	5%
	30-54	41%	41%	10%	4%	5%
	>55	49%	37%	7%	3%	4%
Education	HS or less	49%	32%	8%	4%	7%
	Some Coll.	45%	36%	11%	3%	4%
	Coll. Deg.	38%	45%	9%	6%	2%
	Postgrad	36%	53%	5%	5%	2%
Income	<$40k	49%	36%	8%	1%	5%
	$40k-$100k	45%	39%	9%	4%	3%
	>100k	36%	45%	8%	7%	3%
Party ID	Dem.	7%	77%	9%	4%	3%
	Ind.	42%	20%	15%	9%	14%
	Rep.	88%	3%	5%	3%	2%
Ideology	Lib	8%	80%	6%	4%	2%
	Mod.	36%	38%	14%	7%	5%
	Cons.	84%	7%	6%	2%	1%
Race	White	49%	36%	8%	4%	3%
	African American	18%	61%	9%	1%	11%
	Latino	35%	39%	12%	9%	5%
	Asian	25%	55%	3%	6%	12%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	6%	83%	6%	3%	2%
	Trump	88%	3%	6%	2%	2%

TRUMP BETTER/WORSE

		United States			Republican Party
		Better	Neither	Worse	Better	Neither	Worse
Gender	Men	48%	19%	33%	47%	23%	30%
	Women	58%	18%	24%	51%	24%	25%
Age	18-29	57%	23%	20%	47%	35%	17%
	30-54	53%	20%	27%	51%	22%	28%
	>55	51%	15%	33%	48%	19%	33%
Education	HS or less	44%	23%	33%	40%	26%	34%
	Some Coll.	56%	17%	27%	51%	22%	27%
	Coll. Deg.	59%	15%	26%	54%	22%	24%
	Postgrad	64%	15%	21%	63%	16%	20%
Income	<$40k	49%	20%	30%	48%	22%	30%
	$40k-$100k	53%	19%	28%	47%	24%	29%
	>100k	58%	17%	25%	56%	24%	21%
Party ID	Dem.	78%	11%	12%	74%	15%	12%
	Ind.	44%	31%	25%	42%	36%	22%
	Rep.	29%	20%	51%	24%	25%	51%
Ideology	Lib	81%	8%	12%	76%	13%	12%
	Mod.	56%	19%	25%	51%	27%	22%
	Cons.	28%	21%	50%	25%	24%	51%
Race	White	50%	17%	33%	47%	22%	31%
	African American	72%	20%	8%	61%	29%	10%
	Latino	51%	25%	24%	46%	25%	29%
	Asian	69%	13%	18%	78%	18%	4%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	83%	10%	6%	79%	13%	8%
	Trump	23%	20%	57%	21%	26%	53%

BIDEN BETTER/WORSE

		United States			Democratic Party
		Better	Neither	Worse	Better	Neither	Worse

Gender	Men	60%	24%	16%	58%	27%	15%
	Women	55%	28%	17%	51%	33%	16%
Age	18-29	50%	30%	20%	43%	41%	16%
	30-54	56%	28%	16%	55%	28%	16%
	>55	63%	22%	15%	59%	26%	15%
Education	HS or less	59%	26%	15%	55%	29%	15%
	Some Coll.	61%	25%	14%	55%	26%	19%
	Coll. Deg.	55%	26%	19%	54%	32%	14%
	Postgrad	54%	28%	18%	51%	31%	18%
Income	<$40k	59%	26%	15%	52%	29%	19%
	$40k-$100k	56%	24%	20%	56%	29%	15%
	>100k	57%	32%	11%	56%	32%	12%
Party ID	Dem.	37%	37%	26%	37%	41%	22%
	Ind.	54%	33%	12%	55%	35%	10%
	Rep.	84%	8%	7%	75%	14%	12%
Ideology	Lib	40%	30%	30%	39%	36%	25%
	Mod.	53%	32%	15%	53%	33%	14%
	Cons.	82%	12%	6%	72%	18%	10%
Race	White	63%	22%	16%	60%	25%	15%
	African American	39%	42%	19%	38%	47%	15%
	Latino	49%	32%	19%	46%	35%	19%
	Asian	51%	14%	35%	55%	17%	28%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	37%	34%	29%	38%	38%	24%
	Trump	85%	10%	6%	77%	15%	9%

2024 REMATCH GOOD/BAD FOR COUNTRY

		Very Good	Somewhat Good	Neither	Somewhat Bad	Very Bad

Gender	Men	19%	15%	24%	20%	21%
	Women	11%	13%	28%	18%	30%
Age	18-29	9%	23%	30%	13%	25%
	30-54	14%	14%	24%	17%	31%
	>55	18%	10%	26%	24%	21%
Education	HS or less	16%	15%	31%	18%	21%
	Some Coll.	18%	11%	28%	16%	27%
	Coll. Deg.	13%	15%	22%	20%	30%
	Postgrad	11%	14%	19%	28%	28%
Income	<$40k	16%	15%	31%	19%	18%
	$40k-$100k	16%	13%	24%	17%	29%
	>100k	12%	17%	18%	22%	31%
Party ID	Dem.	7%	14%	23%	26%	30%
	Ind.	8%	10%	34%	14%	33%
	Rep.	29%	16%	25%	14%	16%
Ideology	Lib	6%	9%	18%	32%	34%
	Mod.	9%	15%	30%	17%	29%
	Cons.	33%	16%	23%	14%	14%
Race	White	17%	13%	22%	21%	26%
	African American	6%	17%	39%	23%	16%
	Latino	13%	18%	32%	13%	25%
	Asian	8%	2%	43%	25%	22%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	6%	11%	21%	29%	33%
	Trump	33%	13%	25%	16%	14%

BIDEN EMOTIONS (% SELECT)

		Fear	Hope	Happiness	Relief	Anger	Disappoint	Sadness	Pride

Gender	Men	38%	26%	23%	32%	34%	52%	40%	14%
	Women	37%	28%	20%	38%	31%	49%	32%	13%
Age	18-29	26%	26%	21%	30%	26%	45%	24%	15%
	30-54	33%	24%	19%	38%	30%	50%	34%	10%
	>55	47%	30%	23%	34%	37%	53%	44%	16%
Education	HS or less	40%	30%	20%	29%	37%	52%	40%	14%
	Some Coll.	38%	23%	16%	30%	33%	55%	37%	12%
	Coll. Deg.	37%	24%	21%	42%	28%	47%	33%	11%
	Postgrad	30%	33%	33%	45%	25%	44%	32%	19%
Income	<$40k	46%	32%	22%	32%	34%	52%	39%	15%
	$40k-$100k	35%	26%	22%	33%	33%	49%	34%	12%
	>100k	33%	25%	22%	44%	31%	47%	39%	14%
Party ID	Dem.	11%	52%	43%	68%	8%	17%	11%	25%
	Ind.	40%	15%	9%	22%	30%	62%	35%	9%
	Rep.	69%	4%	3%	4%	62%	83%	67%	2%
Ideology	Lib	8%	49%	44%	73%	9%	21%	13%	27%
	Mod.	33%	28%	20%	34%	25%	45%	28%	12%
	Cons.	69%	8%	5%	6%	63%	80%	69%	3%
Race	White	44%	23%	19%	34%	37%	56%	44%	11%
	African American	17%	43%	36%	49%	7%	28%	11%	21%
	Latino	26%	36%	23%	35%	28%	42%	23%	17%
	Asian	22%	17%	17%	25%	16%	41%	10%	26%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	9%	54%	47%	76%	5%	15%	9%	28%
	Trump	75%	3%	1%	1%	69%	85%	76%	1%

TRUMP EMOTIONS (% SELECT)

		Fear	Hope	Happiness	Relief	Anger	Disappoint	Sadness	Pride

Gender	Men	36%	45%	33%	39%	33%	40%	32%	22%
	Women	46%	33%	22%	30%	39%	51%	37%	17%
Age	18-29	35%	33%	19%	25%	37%	50%	32%	13%
	30-54	42%	37%	26%	32%	36%	48%	36%	18%
	>55	43%	43%	33%	41%	37%	42%	36%	24%
Education	HS or less	37%	44%	32%	39%	34%	40%	32%	21%
	Some Coll.	38%	39%	29%	34%	34%	48%	36%	21%
	Coll. Deg.	43%	35%	23%	32%	37%	50%	37%	17%
	Postgrad	56%	34%	24%	27%	45%	51%	39%	18%
Income	<$40k	43%	44%	33%	37%	36%	43%	33%	22%
	$40k-$100k	40%	36%	26%	34%	37%	46%	36%	19%
	>100k	44%	38%	26%	33%	38%	49%	39%	19%
Party ID	Dem.	71%	10%	6%	8%	66%	75%	64%	4%
	Ind.	36%	34%	21%	28%	30%	47%	27%	10%
	Rep.	9%	76%	58%	71%	5%	9%	6%	44%
Ideology	Lib	71%	8%	7%	9%	72%	79%	69%	4%
	Mod.	42%	35%	22%	29%	36%	48%	35%	13%
	Cons.	13%	75%	57%	67%	9%	13%	8%	42%
Race	White	41%	45%	33%	40%	35%	41%	33%	23%
	African American	44%	19%	12%	12%	44%	58%	49%	5%
	Latino	45%	32%	21%	26%	39%	53%	35%	15%
	Asian	33%	8%	11%	18%	37%	70%	21%	5%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	77%	7%	6%	7%	69%	76%	68%	4%
	Trump	8%	79%	59%	74%	4%	8%	7%	47%

% APPROVE OF PRESIDENT BIDEN

		Jan. 2024	June 2023	Oct. 2022	May 2022	Dec. 2021	April 2021
Gender	Men	38%	44%	40%	39%	35%	48%
	Women	39%	45%	40%	37%	47%	53%
Age	18-29	38%	46%	39%	32%	37%	52%
	30-54	38%	49%	41%	40%	45%	51%
	>55	39%	39%	39%	39%	40%	48%
Education	HS or less	37%	35%	35%	26%	37%	46%
	Some Coll.	28%	37%	33%	39%	39%	47%
	Coll. Deg.	42%	47%	46%	46%	42%	53%
	Postgrad	53%	79%	58%	56%	59%	64%
Income	<$40k	39%	44%	34%	37%	44%	55%
	$40k-$100k	39%	40%	44%	40%	38%	49%
	>100k	42%	53%	51%	48%	44%	53%
Party ID	Dem.	72%	83%	80%	75%	78%	88%
	Ind.	21%	23%	4%	4%	5%	11%
	Rep.	9%	7%	21%	17%	24%	31%
Ideology	Lib	74%	79%	74%	74%	75%	84%
	Mod.	40%	49%	43%	46%	47%	61%
	Cons.	11%	9%	11%	8%	12%	11%
Race	White	34%	39%	35%	33%	35%	44%
	African American	64%	67%	57%	57%	68%	74%
	Latino	44%	49%	48%	40%	47%	59%
	Asian	24%	49%	58%	49%	73%	75%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	78%	88%	85%	75%	77%	91%
	Trump	5%	4%	5%	4%	5%	6%

APPROVAL (% APPROVE)

		U.S. Congress	U.S. Supreme Court	Department of Justice	Armed Forces
Gender	Men	27%	45%	42%	72%
	Women	25%	38%	42%	64%
Age	18-29	39%	50%	46%	59%
	30-54	27%	36%	39%	60%
	>55	20%	42%	42%	78%
Education	HS or less	28%	41%	39%	67%
	Some Coll.	17%	35%	31%	62%
	Coll. Deg.	31%	46%	48%	69%
	Postgrad	21%	41%	50%	75%
Income	<$40k	27%	44%	37%	67%
	$40k-$100k	26%	38%	43%	66%
	>100k	29%	48%	49%	79%
Party ID	Dem.	29%	33%	61%	73%
	Ind.	18%	32%	30%	50%
	Rep.	27%	58%	25%	73%
Ideology	Lib	24%	23%	61%	67%
	Mod.	31%	45%	49%	71%
	Cons.	25%	60%	21%	74%
Race	White	25%	42%	41%	70%
	African American	33%	42%	55%	76%
	Latino	30%	39%	43%	56%
	Asian	21%	34%	31%	53%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	27%	29%	67%	77%
	Trump	26%	62%	21%	74%

% DEFINITE/PROBABLY LEGITIMATE

		Jan. 2024	Oct. 2022	May 2022	Dec. 2021	Apr. 2021
Gender	Men	56%	61%	61%	54%	59%
	Women	60%	55%	56%	62%	60%
Age	18-29	69%	62%	66%	68%	70%
	30-54	55%	60%	62%	59%	59%
	>55	56%	55%	52%	52%	55%
Education	HS or less	53%	48%	49%	51%	52%
	Some Coll.	58%	57%	59%	58%	56%
	Coll. Deg.	62%	66%	63%	62%	66%
	Postgrad	65%	75%	77%	75%	76%
Income	<$40k	52%	51%	58%	57%	62%
	$40k-$100k	60%	64%	59%	62%	58%
	>100k	65%	66%	66%	61%	65%
Party ID	Dem.	90%	92%	93%	91%	97%
	Ind.	44%	44%	46%	54%	44%
	Rep.	29%	26%	24%	21%	19%
Ideology	Lib	92%	90%	97%	95%	94%
	Mod.	63%	63%	68%	66%	69%
	Cons.	26%	33%	25%	24%	20%
Race	White	54%	56%	53%	53%	54%
	African American	77%	69%	72%	78%	83%
	Latino	67%	61%	65%	66%	69%
	Asian	72%	58%	81%	70%	84%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	94%	97%	93%	93%	97%
	Trump	22%	24%	22%	21%	15%

STATE OF NATIONAL ECONOMY

		Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor

Gender	Men	6%	27%	36%	31%
	Women	4%	22%	35%	38%
Age	18-29	6%	26%	43%	25%
	30-54	4%	24%	33%	40%
	>55	6%	25%	34%	35%
Education	HS or less	3%	22%	38%	37%
	Some Coll.	3%	19%	39%	39%
	Coll. Deg.	7%	27%	34%	32%
	Postgrad	10%	34%	28%	28%
Income	<$40k	3%	21%	37%	39%
	$40k-$100k	7%	26%	29%	38%
	>100k	6%	28%	40%	26%
Party ID	Dem.	10%	40%	33%	18%
	Ind.	3%	15%	44%	38%
	Rep.	0%	12%	33%	54%
Ideology	Lib	9%	45%	28%	17%
	Mod.	5%	27%	41%	27%
	Cons.	1%	7%	35%	57%
Race	White	5%	23%	34%	37%
	African American	3%	35%	44%	18%
	Latino	7%	28%	32%	32%
	Asian	1%	18%	60%	20%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	11%	44%	31%	14%
	Trump	1%	6%	33%	60%

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

		The military operation that the state of Israel has undertaken in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023?			The provision of over $10 billion in military aid to the state of Israel in support of their war against Hamas?
		Support	Neither	Oppose	Support	Neither	Oppose

Gender	Men	50%	22%	27%	45%	20%	35%
	Women	34%	42%	24%	28%	38%	34%
Age	18-29	31%	40%	30%	37%	32%	31%
	30-54	36%	37%	27%	29%	35%	36%
	>55	53%	25%	23%	42%	22%	36%
Education	HS or less	36%	43%	21%	32%	35%	33%
	Some Coll.	45%	30%	24%	35%	27%	37%
	Coll. Deg.	47%	27%	26%	39%	28%	34%
	Postgrad	43%	14%	43%	44%	18%	37%
Income	<$40k	40%	37%	22%	33%	31%	36%
	$40k-$100k	39%	30%	30%	35%	29%	36%
	>100k	50%	26%	24%	44%	25%	31%
Party ID	Dem.	32%	33%	35%	32%	28%	40%
	Ind.	29%	47%	24%	22%	37%	41%
	Rep.	62%	22%	16%	50%	26%	24%
Ideology	Lib	33%	25%	42%	30%	26%	44%
	Mod.	36%	39%	26%	30%	33%	37%
	Cons.	66%	22%	12%	52%	23%	25%
Race	White	46%	27%	27%	39%	25%	35%
	African American	34%	47%	19%	35%	40%	25%
	Latino	30%	46%	23%	24%	41%	35%
	Asian	43%	26%	31%	39%	16%	44%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	32%	29%	39%	31%	24%	45%
	Trump	70%	19%	10%	52%	22%	26%

ISRAEL COMMITING GENOCIDE IN GAZA

		Yes	No

Gender	Men	46%	54%
	Women	55%	45%
Age	18-29	67%	33%
	30-54	52%	48%
	>55	41%	59%
Education	HS or less	52%	48%
	Some Coll.	52%	48%
	Coll. Deg.	48%	52%
	Postgrad	49%	51%
Income	<$40k	49%	51%
	$40k-$100k	52%	48%
	>100k	48%	52%
Party ID	Dem.	67%	33%
	Ind.	50%	50%
	Rep.	31%	69%
Ideology	Lib	67%	33%
	Mod.	55%	45%
	Cons.	28%	72%
Race	White	47%	53%
	African American	65%	35%
	Latino	55%	45%
	Asian	51%	49%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	66%	34%
	Trump	22%	78%

TRUMP CHARGED

		Innocent	Guilty
Gender	Men	48%	52%
	Women	36%	64%
Age	18-29	35%	65%
	30-54	39%	61%
	>55	48%	52%
Education	HS or less	44%	56%
	Some Coll.	45%	55%
	Coll. Deg.	37%	63%
	Postgrad	44%	56%
Income	<$40k	43%	57%
	$40k-$100k	44%	56%
	>100k	41%	59%
Party ID	Dem.	12%	88%
	Ind.	35%	65%
	Rep.	82%	18%
Ideology	Lib	11%	89%
	Mod.	34%	66%
	Cons.	81%	19%
Race	White	49%	51%
	African American	16%	84%
	Latino	31%	69%
	Asian	20%	80%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	6%	94%
	Trump	87%	13%

TRUMP BALLOT

		Strongly Support	Support	Neither	Oppose	Strongly Oppose	Don’t Know
Gender	Men	27%	11%	16%	5%	36%	4%
	Women	35%	9%	17%	8%	24%	7%
Age	18-29	23%	17%	29%	10%	11%	10%
	30-54	33%	9%	20%	4%	27%	6%
	>55	34%	7%	8%	7%	42%	3%
Education	HS or less	31%	7%	20%	6%	29%	5%
	Some Coll.	29%	11%	10%	7%	36%	8%
	Coll. Deg.	30%	13%	17%	7%	27%	6%
	Postgrad	40%	9%	11%	5%	34%	1%
Income	<$40k	32%	8%	18%	6%	30%	5%
	$40k-$100k	33%	10%	15%	7%	31%	5%
	>100k	28%	11%	17%	7%	32%	5%
Party ID	Dem.	57%	15%	17%	3%	5%	3%
	Ind.	24%	7%	26%	7%	21%	15%
	Rep.	5%	5%	9%	11%	66%	3%
Ideology	Lib	65%	13%	10%	3%	7%	3%
	Mod.	28%	12%	26%	7%	22%	5%
	Cons.	7%	5%	7%	10%	67%	3%
Race	White	26%	9%	14%	8%	37%	5%
	African American	43%	14%	28%	2%	10%	3%
	Latino	46%	10%	19%	4%	15%	6%
	Asian	37%	11%	10%	11%	7%	25%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	62%	15%	15%	2%	4%	3%
	Trump	4%	2%	7%	7%	77%	3%

TRUMP DICTATOR

		Good Thing	Bad Thing
Gender	Men	46%	54%
	Women	33%	67%
Age	18-29	40%	60%
	30-54	39%	61%
	>55	40%	60%
Education	HS or less	43%	57%
	Some Coll.	40%	60%
	Coll. Deg.	36%	64%
	Postgrad	36%	64%
Income	<$40k	39%	61%
	$40k-$100k	41%	59%
	>100k	42%	58%
Party ID	Dem.	13%	87%
	Ind.	36%	64%
	Rep.	74%	26%
Ideology	Lib	13%	87%
	Mod.	35%	65%
	Cons.	71%	29%
Race	White	46%	54%
	African American	18%	82%
	Latino	33%	67%
	Asian	21%	79%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	9%	91%
	Trump	76%	24%

THOMAS RECUSE

		Remove	Do Not Remove
Gender	Men	61%	39%
	Women	68%	32%
Age	18-29	75%	25%
	30-54	65%	35%
	>55	59%	41%
Education	HS or less	62%	38%
	Some Coll.	67%	33%
	Coll. Deg.	67%	33%
	Postgrad	61%	39%
Income	<$40k	65%	35%
	$40k-$100k	65%	35%
	>100k	62%	38%
Party ID	Dem.	91%	9%
	Ind.	65%	35%
	Rep.	32%	68%
Ideology	Lib	93%	7%
	Mod.	68%	32%
	Cons.	30%	70%
Race	White	59%	41%
	African American	83%	17%
	Latino	75%	25%
	Asian	81%	19%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	92%	8%
	Trump	24%	76%

HOUSE SHOULD/WILL IMPEACH BIDEN

		Do you think that the House of Representatives *will* impeach President Joe Biden	Do you think that the House of Representatives *should* impeach President Joe Biden?
		Yes	No	Yes	No

Gender	Men	27%	73%	43%	57%
	Women	22%	78%	39%	61%
Age	18-29	21%	79%	29%	71%
	30-54	25%	75%	41%	59%
	>55	25%	75%	46%	54%
Education	HS or less	25%	75%	40%	60%
	Some Coll.	23%	77%	48%	52%
	Coll. Deg.	23%	77%	39%	61%
	Postgrad	26%	74%	36%	64%
Income	<$40k	23%	77%	44%	56%
	$40k-$100k	26%	74%	43%	57%
	>100k	25%	75%	38%	62%
Party ID	Dem.	18%	82%	12%	88%
	Ind.	21%	79%	42%	58%
	Rep.	34%	66%	75%	25%
Ideology	Lib	15%	85%	10%	90%
	Mod.	21%	79%	33%	67%
	Cons.	35%	65%	77%	23%
Race	White	25%	75%	48%	52%
	African American	19%	81%	13%	87%
	Latino	23%	77%	32%	68%
	Asian	33%	67%	25%	75%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	17%	83%	8%	92%
	Trump	36%	64%	82%	18%

RACIAL ATTITUDES (% AGREE)

		White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of the color of their skin.	Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated situations.	I am angry that racism exists.	The United States has never been a racist country.	The main cause of the Civil War was the conflict over states’ rights.
Gender	Men	49%	31%	68%	14%	48%
	Women	56%	21%	75%	10%	34%
Age	18-29	59%	29%	75%	15%	42%
	30-54	53%	25%	70%	14%	43%
	>55	50%	25%	71%	8%	39%
Education	HS or less	50%	28%	70%	11%	41%
	Some Coll.	48%	17%	72%	13%	43%
	Coll. Deg.	56%	27%	72%	13%	39%
	Postgrad	59%	33%	77%	9%	43%
Income	<$40k	52%	23%	71%	10%	41%
	$40k-$100k	54%	26%	68%	13%	39%
	>100k	52%	32%	76%	14%	46%
Party ID	Dem.	80%	15%	86%	10%	35%
	Ind.	43%	22%	61%	11%	37%
	Rep.	26%	41%	61%	15%	50%
Ideology	Lib	87%	11%	90%	6%	30%
	Mod.	54%	24%	72%	13%	42%
	Cons.	23%	45%	59%	15%	54%
Race	White	48%	27%	71%	12%	40%
	African American	77%	14%	76%	4%	44%
	Latino	61%	25%	73%	15%	38%
	Asian	52%	11%	59%	23%	45%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	84%	11%	87%	8%	32%
	Trump	19%	45%	61%	13%	53%

ANTI-SEMITISM (% AGREE)

		Jews have too much power in the business world.	Jews are more loyal to Israel than to America.	It is appropriate for opponents of Israel’s policies and actions to boycott Jewish American owned businesses in their communities.
Gender	Men	22%	25%	23%
	Women	14%	19%	14%
Age	18-29	32%	28%	25%
	30-54	20%	22%	21%
	>55	10%	19%	13%
Education	HS or less	19%	26%	19%
	Some Coll.	15%	18%	14%
	Coll. Deg.	20%	21%	19%
	Postgrad	15%	16%	24%
Income	<$40k	18%	24%	17%
	$40k-$100k	17%	22%	20%
	>100k	18%	19%	19%
Party ID	Dem.	19%	18%	19%
	Ind.	20%	21%	21%
	Rep.	15%	27%	15%
Ideology	Lib	14%	14%	15%
	Mod.	24%	25%	23%
	Cons.	16%	27%	15%
Race	White	14%	21%	17%
	African American	30%	23%	25%
	Latino	25%	30%	22%
	Asian	28%	25%	16%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	15%	18%	17%
	Trump	9%	23%	13%

IMMIGRATION POLICIES (% AGREE)

		Allowing refugees and asylum seekers the ability to live and work in the United States for a temporary, but extendable, period of time?	Building a wall along the border with Mexico?	Allowing the children of immigrants (also known as “Dreamers”) who were brought to the United States illegally by their parents to become citizens if they meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes?	Allowing immigrants who are living in the United States illegally to become citizens if they meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes?
Gender	Men	44%	57%	62%	48%
	Women	46%	41%	64%	54%
Age	18-29	54%	29%	78%	63%
	30-54	48%	47%	63%	51%
	>55	39%	59%	57%	47%
Education	HS or less	39%	51%	59%	49%
	Some Coll.	42%	46%	64%	52%
	Coll. Deg.	50%	49%	67%	50%
	Postgrad	58%	43%	65%	60%
Income	<$40k	39%	50%	57%	48%
	$40k-$100k	48%	48%	63%	50%
	>100k	52%	49%	69%	56%
Party ID	Dem.	69%	25%	81%	73%
	Ind.	33%	45%	52%	42%
	Rep.	24%	79%	48%	31%
Ideology	Lib	75%	24%	86%	80%
	Mod.	45%	46%	67%	51%
	Cons.	22%	80%	42%	29%
Race	White	44%	54%	60%	47%
	African American	47%	37%	70%	63%
	Latino	51%	31%	70%	63%
	Asian	65%	31%	77%	48%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	73%	21%	82%	74%
	Trump	18%	89%	39%	24%

REPARATIONS

		Jan. 2024		Jan. 2023		April 2021
		Should	Should Not	Should	Should Not	Should	Should Not
Gender	Men	32%	68%	38%	62%	35%	65%
	Women	35%	65%	36%	64%	42%	58%
Age	18-29	55%	45%	57%	43%	57%	43%
	30-54	33%	67%	42%	58%	39%	61%
	>55	23%	77%	22%	78%	30%	70%
Education	HS or less	37%	63%	36%	64%	35%	65%
	Some Coll.	31%	69%	37%	63%	38%	62%
	Coll. Deg.	29%	71%	39%	61%	40%	60%
	Postgrad	36%	64%	33%	67%	46%	54%
Income	<$40k	33%	67%	41%	59%	44%	56%
	$40k-$100k	32%	68%	36%	64%	37%	63%
	>100k	31%	69%	32%	68%	40%	60%
Party ID	Dem.	52%	48%	55%	45%	64%	36%
	Ind.	30%	70%	34%	66%	10%	90%
	Rep.	12%	88%	15%	85%	29%	71%
Ideology	Lib	55%	45%	59%	41%	70%	30%
	Mod.	34%	66%	38%	62%	36%	64%
	Cons.	11%	89%	11%	89%	11%	89%
Race	White	26%	74%	28%	72%	28%	72%
	African American	68%	32%	74%	26%	86%	14%
	Latino	39%	61%	41%	59%	45%	55%
	Asian	21%	79%	16%	84%	53%	47%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	50%	50%	56%	44%	63%	37%
	Trump	6%	94%	12%	88%	8%	92%

WHY OPPOSED TO REPARATIONS

		Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021
		Too Expensive			Not Deserving			Treated Equally			Impossible to Place Monetary Value			Too Difficult to Administer
Gender	Men	12%	3%	7%	32%	32%	46%	23%	21%	15%	21%	23%	21%	13%	21%	10%
	Women	12%	8%	5%	25%	25%	30%	18%	22%	21%	29%	30%	29%	17%	16%	16%
Age	18-29	12%	12%	12%	14%	16%	29%	24%	20%	18%	33%	25%	27%	17%	27%	14%
	30-54	14%	6%	5%	26%	25%	38%	21%	22%	18%	24%	32%	26%	14%	16%	13%
	>55	9%	4%	4%	34%	34%	41%	19%	22%	19%	24%	24%	23%	14%	17%	13%
Education	HS or less	13%	9%	8%	31%	30%	34%	19%	24%	19%	25%	23%	23%	11%	14%	16%
	Some Coll.	9%	2%	5%	30%	31%	49%	24%	23%	19%	23%	24%	19%	14%	20%	9%
	Coll. Deg.	10%	4%	4%	27%	24%	35%	19%	22%	18%	26%	29%	30%	18%	22%	13%
	Postgrad	15%	7%	3%	20%	28%	45%	23%	12%	12%	26%	35%	28%	16%	18%	12%
Income	<$40k	12%	9%	8%	27%	25%	41%	19%	22%	16%	28%	27%	23%	15%	17%	12%
	$40k-$100k	10%	3%	4%	31%	32%	37%	22%	23%	18%	22%	23%	28%	14%	20%	13%
	>100k	13%	2%	7%	26%	26%	42%	23%	19%	23%	23%	32%	20%	15%	21%	8%
Party ID	Dem.	13%	5%	7%	20%	17%	22%	10%	8%	7%	37%	40%	41%	21%	30%	23%
	Ind.	16%	9%	5%	26%	30%	46%	14%	24%	25%	33%	24%	16%	11%	14%	8%
	Rep.	9%	5%	6%	36%	35%	40%	30%	29%	17%	14%	19%	25%	12%	12%	13%
Ideology	Lib	17%	6%	7%	19%	16%	17%	8%	5%	4%	37%	47%	43%	19%	26%	28%
	Mod.	9%	7%	8%	29%	30%	39%	20%	21%	18%	26%	25%	22%	15%	17%	13%
	Cons.	11%	4%	4%	35%	35%	44%	27%	29%	24%	14%	19%	18%	13%	12%	10%
Race	White	11%	5%	6%	29%	32%	39%	21%	23%	19%	24%	25%	25%	15%	16%	11%
	African American	14%	2%	14%	15%	6%	17%	8%	14%	11%	44%	41%	43%	20%	38%	15%
	Latino	17%	12%	6%	27%	23%	26%	23%	15%	19%	22%	33%	27%	10%	18%	23%
	Asian	17%	17%	7%	22	29%	76%	6%	16%	0%	40%	26%	0%	16%	13%	17%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	10%	5%	7%	17	22%	22%	5%	7%	4%	43%	42%	45%	24%	24%	22%
	Trump	7%	4%	5%	38	36%	46%	29%	31%	25%	13%	17%	16%	13%	12%	8%

WHY SUPPORT REPARATIONS

		Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Apr. 2021
		Never Paid for Deaths			Slavery Responsible for Inequality			Never Followed on Promise to Compensate			Recognition of Ongoing Pain			Help African Americans Achieve Equality
Gender	Men	11%	24%	14%	25%	26%	27%	25%	28%	16%	25%	10%	23%	14%	11%	20%
	Women	11%	19%	11%	25%	31%	28%	26%	21%	23%	19%	16%	21%	20%	14%	17%
Age	18-29	12%	21%	19%	26%	26%	25%	19%	28%	15%	23%	12%	13%	21%	14%	28%
	30-54	11%	28%	9%	26%	28%	28%	24%	21%	21%	25%	14%	24%	13%	10%	18%
	>55	9%	11%	11%	22%	33%	29%	34%	28%	23%	16%	13%	27%	18%	15%	10%
Education	HS or less	15%	25%	20%	18%	26%	25%	26%	25%	17%	28%	12%	23%	13%	12%	15%
	Some Coll.	6%	24%	11%	27%	18%	22%	37%	30%	26%	11%	12%	21%	18%	17%	20%
	Coll. Deg.	8%	22%	8%	34%	30%	36%	23%	22%	14%	15%	15%	20%	20%	11%	22%
	Postgrad	10%	7%	6%	25%	51%	25%	14%	18%	30%	30%	10%	23%	22%	13%	16%
Income	<$40k	11%	27%	12%	25%	25%	24%	32%	19%	19%	23%	13%	26%	10%	16%	18%
	$40k-$100k	12%	18%	15%	25%	28%	25%	27%	30%	22%	16%	13%	19%	21%	11%	19%
	>100k	11%	26%	7%	30%	36%	29%	20%	18%	20%	18%	5%	24%	21%	16%	19%
Party ID	Dem.	10%	18%	9%	26%	34%	31%	26%	22%	21%	20%	13%	22%	19%	14%	17%
	Ind.	15%	22%	23%	26%	22%	16%	25%	31%	10%	23%	14%	28%	10%	11%	23%
	Rep.	10%	40%	24%	20%	14%	19%	22%	27%	21%	31%	10%	17%	18%	9%	19%
Ideology	Lib	12%	22%	5%	19%	29%	30%	33%	23%	18%	18%	15%	24%	19%	12%	22%
	Mod.	7%	17%	22%	36%	33%	21%	13%	26%	23%	27%	10%	19%	16%	14%	15%
	Cons.	18%	38%	14%	18%	28%	28%	14%	19%	14%	25%	8%	28%	25%	7%	16%
Race	White	10%	20%	9%	26%	30%	34%	21%	22%	21%	27%	16%	19%	15%	11%	17%
	African American	12%	25%	14%	23%	25%	29%	34%	26%	16%	8%	10%	24%	24%	14%	18%
	Latino	13%	20%	22%	21%	23%	17%	23%	31%	20%	26%	8%	22%	17%	17%	19%
	Asian	0%	0%	8%	29%	69%	10%	71%	31%	17%	0%	0%	44%	0%	0%	22%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	8%	17%	9%	25%	33%	30%	26%	24%	19%	21%	13%	24%	20%	13%	18%
	Trump	19%	45%	21%	13%	13%	17%	28%	20%	20%	26%	11%	28%	14%	11%	14%

GREAT REPLACEMENT

		The growth in the number of immigrants in the country means that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity.			Some elected officials want to increase immigration in order to bring in obedient voters who will vote for them.			The growth in the size of minority communities in the country will NOT result in the declining influence of white Americans			Racial and ethnic diversity tends to strengthen the character of a nation.
		Agree	Disagree	Neither	Agree	Disagree	Neither	Agree	Disagree	Neither	Agree	Disagree	Neither
Gender	Men	42%	35%	23%	49%	26%	25%	36%	29%	36%	55%	19%	27%
	Women	34%	39%	27%	38%	32%	30%	35%	22%	42%	52%	13%	35%
Age	18-29	29%	41%	30%	35%	21%	44%	41%	10%	49%	54%	5%	41%
	30-54	37%	38%	25%	44%	26%	30%	37%	24%	39%	55%	19%	26%
	>55	43%	35%	22%	47%	35%	18%	31%	34%	35%	51%	19%	30%
Education	HS or less	39%	30%	30%	43%	24%	33%	33%	25%	42%	45%	15%	39%
	Some Coll.	37%	42%	21%	45%	29%	26%	35%	27%	38%	53%	16%	31%
	Coll. Deg.	39%	39%	22%	43%	30%	27%	38%	25%	37%	57%	20%	24%
	Postgrad	32%	48%	20%	43%	40%	16%	36%	27%	37%	71%	9%	20%
Income	<$40k	38%	33%	29%	43%	26%	31%	33%	25%	42%	48%	14%	38%
	$40k-$100k	38%	39%	23%	42%	32%	26%	39%	28%	34%	56%	17%	27%
	>100k	40%	40%	20%	47%	32%	21%	37%	24%	39%	55%	17%	27%
Party ID	Dem.	23%	55%	22%	24%	46%	29%	48%	14%	37%	69%	7%	24%
	Ind.	39%	29%	32%	41%	21%	39%	30%	21%	50%	48%	18%	34%
	Rep.	55%	21%	23%	68%	13%	19%	24%	42%	35%	38%	25%	37%
Ideology	Lib	21%	65%	14%	21%	53%	26%	53%	16%	32%	79%	7%	14%
	Mod.	33%	37%	30%	40%	29%	32%	37%	22%	41%	54%	14%	33%
	Cons.	62%	16%	22%	73%	12%	16%	20%	43%	37%	33%	28%	39%
Race	White	41%	37%	22%	47%	28%	25%	32%	28%	40%	53%	17%	29%
	African American	29%	34%	37%	27%	41%	32%	43%	16%	42%	50%	12%	38%
	Latino	30%	43%	27%	36%	27%	37%	46%	17%	37%	57%	14%	29%
	Asian	31%	47%	23%	35%	29%	36%	73%	10%	17%	82%	4%	13%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	20%	59%	21%	18%	56%	26%	52%	14%	34%	75%	7%	18%
	Trump	66%	14%	20%	76%	12%	12%	17%	49%	34%	32%	33%	36%

IMMIGRANTS AND BLOOD


		Agree	Disagree	Neither
Gender	Men	21%	54%	26%
	Women	21%	54%	25%
Age	18-29	16%	53%	31%
	30-54	22%	54%	24%
	>55	22%	55%	24%
Education	HS or less	24%	46%	29%
	Some Coll.	23%	55%	23%
	Coll. Deg.	19%	57%	24%
	Postgrad	11%	70%	18%
Income	<$40k	23%	50%	27%
	$40k-$100k	21%	53%	26%
	>100k	18%	61%	21%
Party ID	Dem.	12%	72%	16%
	Ind.	22%	46%	32%
	Rep.	31%	37%	32%
Ideology	Lib	8%	80%	12%
	Mod.	19%	57%	24%
	Cons.	33%	33%	34%
Race	White	23%	51%	26%
	African American	15%	58%	27%
	Latino	15%	64%	22%
	Asian	21%	50%	29%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	9%	75%	16%
	Trump	35%	32%	33%

DEI PROGRAMS (% EACH PROFESSION SHOULD RECEIVE TRAINING)

		Medical Professionals	Teachers	Police Officers	Armed Forces	Public Employees	Private Employees
Gender	Men	64%	64%	67%	61%	63%	58%
	Women	77%	77%	80%	78%	77%	72%
Age	18-29	83%	77%	82%	84%	80%	73%
	30-54	74%	75%	76%	72%	73%	69%
	>55	62%	64%	68%	61%	64%	58%
Education	HS or less	70%	71%	74%	71%	71%	65%
	Some Coll.	71%	72%	74%	69%	66%	60%
	Coll. Deg.	71%	70%	71%	68%	71%	66%
	Postgrad	73%	73%	75%	71%	71%	70%
Income	<$40k	70%	70%	74%	69%	68%	62%
	$40k-$100k	74%	72%	73%	71%	72%	67%
	>100k	66%	70%	70%	66%	68%	64%
Party ID	Dem.	90%	90%	93%	91%	91%	87%
	Ind.	72%	71%	72%	70%	68%	66%
	Rep.	47%	48%	50%	44%	46%	38%
Ideology	Lib	91%	93%	96%	93%	93%	91%
	Mod.	77%	74%	75%	73%	74%	66%
	Cons.	41%	44%	47%	41%	42%	35%
Race	White	69%	69%	70%	67%	67%	62%
	African American	86%	84%	90%	82%	89%	83%
	Latino	78%	79%	82%	76%	78%	72%
	Asian	70%	74%	85%	85%	83%	78%
2020 Vote Choice	Biden	91%	92%	95%	90%	93%	88%
	Trump	37%	38%	41%	33%	37%	31%
White People Have Advantages	Agree	90%	90%	92%	89%	90%	85%
	Neither	65%	63%	68%	64%	62%	54%
	Disagree	38%	39%	41%	36%	38%	33%
Racial Problems Are Rare	Agree	48%	47%	49%	46%	46%	40%
	Neither	66%	65%	65%	64%	62%	60%
	Disagree	84%	86%	89%	84%	86%	80%
Angry That Racism Exists	Agree	78%	80%	81%	77%	78%	72%
	Neither	53%	51%	57%	54%	51%	48%
	Disagree	47%	42%	42%	48%	51%	41%

Demographic Breakdown of 2024 University of Massachusetts Amherst January National Poll

	All (N=1,064)
Men	49%
Women	51%
18-29	19%
30-54	38%
>55	43%
HS or less	39%
Some Coll.	18%
Coll. Deg.	31%
Postgrad	12%
<$40K	37%
$40K-$100K	40%
>$100K	23%
Democrat	43%
Independent	22%
Republican	35%
Liberal	29%
Moderate	39%
Conservative	33%
White	67%
African American	13%
Hispanic	17%
Asian	3%
Biden	52%
Trump	48%

January 2024 National Poll – All Toplines

Toplines

University of Massachusetts Amherst

January 2024 National Poll

Field Dates:	January 25, 2024 – January 30, 2024
Sample:	1064 Respondents
Margin of Error:	3.7%

The unmatched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership status. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame, and then post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

UMass Poll Directors/Fellows

Prof. Tatishe M. Nteta, Ph.D. – Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. – Co-Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Jesse Rhodes, Ph.D. – Co-Director jrhodes@polsci.umass.edu

Prof. Alex Theodoridis, Ph.D. – Co-Director atheodoridis@umass.edu

Lane Cuthbert - Graduate Research Fellow lcuthbert@umass.edu

Adam Eichen - Graduate Research Fellow aeichen@umass.edu

Maddi Hertz- Research Fellow mhertz@umass.edu

Donald Snyder - Graduate Research Fellow desnyder@umass.edu

Graham Backman – Undergraduate Research Fellow gbackman@umass.edu

Bel Corder - Undergraduate Research Fellow icorder@umass.edu

Emily DeGowin - Undergraduate Research Fellow edegowin@umass.edu

Kaitlyn Soper - Undergraduate Research Fellow ksoper@umass.edu

2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Preference (N=633)

Only asked respondents who indicated that they identify as Republicans (including leaners) and Pure Independents

If the (Insert R’s State Here) Republican Presidential Primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would you support in the (Insert R’s State Here) Republican Presidential Primary?

	Without Leaners	With Leaners
Donald Trump	65%	66%
Nikki Haley	17%	18%
Other (Text Box)	5%	5%
Don’t Know	14%	11%

2024 General Election

If the 2024 election for president were held today, which one of the following candidates would you support?

	Without Leaners (N=1,064)	With Leaners (N=989)
Donald Trump	39%	43%
Joe Biden	36%	39%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	7%	9%
Other (Text Box)	3%	4%
Not Sure	7%	4%
Probably won’t vote	8%	N/A

Had to Choose

Only asked of respondents who indicated that they would vote for Kennedy, Some Other Candidate or that they were Not Sure.

If you had to choose between just Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which one of the candidates would you support?

	All (N=168)	RFK Jr. (N=70)	Other (N=36)	Not Sure (N=41)
Donald Trump	25%	33%	7%	20%
Joe Biden	29%	23%	39%	27%
Probably wouldn’t vote	46%	44%	54%	53%

All

(N=168)

RFK Jr.

(N=70)

Other

(N=36)

Not Sure

(N=41)

Donald Trump

25%

33%

20%

Joe Biden

29%

23%

39%

27%

Probably wouldn’t vote

46%

44%

54%

53%

Convicted (N=504)

Only asked of respondents who indicated their support for former President Trump in 2024 General Election or Had to Choose.

Donald Trump is currently facing a number of criminal charges. If he is convicted before November’s election, would that make you less likely to vote for Donald Trump?


Definitely Yes	7%
Probably Yes	15%
Probably No	27%
Definitely No	51%

Convicted Choice (N=102)

Only asked of respondents who indicated that they were less likely to vote for Trump if convicted.

If Donald Trump is convicted before November’s election, which of the following candidates would you support?


Joe Biden	12%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	27%
Other (Text Box)	17%
Not Sure	34%
Probably wouldn’t vote	10%

2024 Rematch (N=1,064)

It is likely that the 2024 presidential election will be a rematch of the 2020 presidential election with former President Donald Trump facing President Joe Biden. In general, do you think that this potential rematch will be . . .

Very Good for the Country	15%
Somewhat Good for the Country	14%
Neither Good Nor Bad for the Country	26%
Somewhat Bad for the Country	19%
Very Bad for the Country	26%

Rematch Follow (N=480)

Only asked of respondents who answered that rematch would be bad for the country.

From the following list, please select the most important reasons why you believe that a rematch of the 2020 presidential election will be bad for the country. Please select all that apply.


These candidates are too old.	63%
These candidates are corrupt.	35%
The candidates are not addressing the issues that matter most to me.	38%
The candidates are too ideologically extreme.	27%
The candidates focus on old conflicts instead of the problems facing the country today.	48%

Better or Worse Trump (N=1,064)

	Much Better	Better	Neither Better nor Worse	Worse	Much Worse
Would it have been better or worse for the United States if former President Donald Trump did not run for president in 2024?	36%	17%	18%	12%	17%
Would it have been better or worse for the Republican Party if former President Donald Trump did not run for president in 2024?	31%	18%	23%	13%	14%

Much

Better

Neither

Better nor Worse

Worse

Much

Worse

Would it have been better or worse for the United States if former President Donald Trump did not run for president in 2024?

36%

17%

18%

12%

17%

Would it have been better or worse for the Republican Party if former President Donald Trump did not run for president in 2024?

31%

18%

23%

13%

14%

Better or Worse Biden (N=1,064)

	Much Better	Better	Neither Better nor Worse	Worse	Much Worse
Would it have been better or worse for the United States if President Joe Biden did not run for president in 2024?	34%	23%	26%	11%	6%
Would it have been better or worse for the Democratic Party if President Joe Biden did not run for president in 2024?	29%	25%	30%	10%	6

Much

Better

Neither

Better nor Worse

Worse

Much

Worse

Would it have been better or worse for the United States if President Joe Biden did not run for president in 2024?

34%

23%

26%

11%

Would it have been better or worse for the Democratic Party if President Joe Biden did not run for president in 2024?

29%

25%

30%

10%

Emotions (N=1,064)

	Fear	Hope	Happiness	Relief	Anger	Disappointment	Sadness	Pride
Imagine that former President Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. Which of the following do you think you would feel? Please select all that apply.	41%	39%	28%	35%	36%	46%	35%	19%
Imagine that President Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election. Which of the following do you think you would feel? Please select all that apply.	38%	27%	21%	35%	32%	50%	36%	13%

2024 Congressional Election

Only asked U.S. Senate Vote Choice to respondents in states with a Senate election in 2024.

	Democratic Party’s Candidate	Republican Party’s Candidate	Don’t Know
	Without Leaners	With Leaners	Without Leaners	With Leaners	Without Leaners	With Leaners
Looking ahead to the 2024 congressional election, if this election were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? (N=1,064)	40%	43%	40%	42%	20%	15%
Looking ahead to the 2024 congressional election, if this election were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in the Senate election? (N=840)	43%	45%	36%	39%	21%	16%

Democratic Party’s Candidate

Republican Party’s Candidate

Don’t

Know

Without Leaners

With Leaners

Without Leaners

With Leaners

Without Leaners

With Leaners

Looking ahead to the 2024 congressional election, if this election were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? (N=1,064)

40%

43%

40%

42%

20%

15%

Looking ahead to the 2024 congressional election, if this election were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in the Senate election? (N=840)

43%

45%

36%

39%

21%

16%

Election Violence (N=1,064)

How concerned are you about the possibility of violence associated with the 2024 presidential election?

Very concerned	36%
Somewhat concerned	37%
Not very concerned	16%
Not concerned at all	6%
Don’t know	6%

Fear Biden (N=1,064)

In a sentence or two, what is your greatest fear if Joe Biden is re-elected President in 2024?

Fear 1: International Fears/Immigration (Republicans more likely to mention)

“Boarder migrant and drug influx. Giving money to other countries as well as the migrants. There are enough problems in our own country we need to work on.”

Fear 2: Fears about Corruption (Republicans more likely to mention)

“He and his puppeteer, Barack Obama, will complete their destruction of the United States, dissolution of the Constitution, and legitimize pedophelia. Corrupt politicians will continue to profiteer off the American people. The judicial system and law & order will flounder.”

Fear 3: Gridlock and Inability to Solve Problems (Democrats more likely to mention)

“ I fear the Republican Congress will continue to waste time causing trouble instead of working together to solve problems. I also fear extreme right groups will have violent outbursts.”

Fear 4: Age and Poor Health: Consequences for Foreign Policy/Security (Neither party more likely to mention)

“He might decay in the next four years or straight up die. He could also be put in a bad situation with an enemy of the U.S., but his attitude towards Taiwan gives me hope.”

Fear 5: Threats to Rights and Freedoms (Republicans more likely to mention)

“We won't have any more rights, they'll take our guns, we won't have food, they'll take over our banking, no mire freedom of speech, pretty much a continuation of what we are experiencing now”

Fear 6: No Fears (Democrats more likely to mention)

“I don't fear Joe Biden's Presidency. He is a man with integrity, knowledge, experience, impressive intellect, albeit with some senior moments. He has accomplished a lot during his Presidency. He is a man of the people, all, not just an elite few.”

Fear 7: Culture Wars (Neither party more likely to mention)

“More and higher taxes, higher cost of living ,more restrictions on small business and free enterprise.”

Fear 8: Poor (Mental) Health: General (Neither party more likely to mention)

“An incompetent fool suffering from mental decline.”

Fear Trump (N=1,064)

In a sentence or two, what is your greatest fear if Donald Trump is elected President in 2024?

Fear 1: Fears of Chaos, Instability, and Division (Neither party more likely to mention)

“That we'll experience more of what happened during his former presidency, a disaster!”

Fear 2: Death of Democracy (Neither party more likely to mention)

“Death of democracy and rise of fascism, collapse of international order, rampant hellscape.”

Fear 3: Resistance or Violence from Democrats (Republicans more likely to mention)

“People who are anti-Trump will protest which will turn violent.”

Fear 4: Threats to Human Rights (Neither party more likely to mention)

“That he, with the help of his acolytes will become dictatorial, severely limit human rights, misuse the justice department to go after perceived enemies.”

Fear 5: Foreign War (Neither party more likely to mention)

“China and Russia will start World War 3.”

Fear 6: Resistance from Powerful Actors in Society (Neither party more likely to mention)

“The greatest risk of Trump being in office is that the other powers in our social system (media, bureaucracy, business) do not accept him, and therefore conflict between those powers is inevitable. This could cause tangible pain for the country if Trump's enemies decide, as they did during his last term, that causing damage to him and his supporters is more important than helping the country.”

Fear 7: Dictatorship (Neither party more likely to mention)

“He has threatened to be a dictator and the Republican party will just let him, dooming this country.”

Fear 8: Corruption (Neither party more likely to mention)

“He’ll run the country like a dictator and we’ll see even more corruption in government. Our democracy will not survive.”

Hope Biden (N=1,064)

In a sentence or two, what is your greatest hope for a Joe Biden presidency if he is re-elected president in 2024?

Hope 1: Progress on Progressive Policy Agenda (Neither party more likely to mention)

“A thriving economy, banning assault weapons, reinstating abortion rights, and more climate policies.”

Hope 2: Democrats Checked by Republicans and Courts (Republicans more likely to mention)

“He is held in check by a Republican house and Senate.”

Hope 3: End to Trump and MAGA (Democrats more likely to mention)

“Trump will be gone forever.”

Hope 4: Competence and Progress (Democrats more likely to mention)

“A mentally sane government without a daily scandal.”

Hope 5: Helping Working People and the Middle Class (Democrats more likely to mention)

“My greatest hope is that he will continue to look out for people like me by reducing prescription costs and junk fees. . .”

Hope 6: Hope He is Not Elected (Republicans more likely to mention)

“I'll need to pray harder that he doesn't win.”

Hope 7: Hope He is Impeached or Leaves Office (Republicans more likely to mention)

“That he gets impeached on day one!!!!!”

Hope 8: No Hope (Republicans more likely to mention)

“There is no hope for the US if he wins.”

Hope Trump (N=1,064)

In a sentence or two, what is your greatest hope for a Donald Trump presidency if he is elected president in 2024?

Hope 1: Better Economy and Secure Border (Republicans more likely to mention)

He fulfilled many of the things he promised during his last term. I believe he will again lift the economy for the middle class and close our borders. These are my two major concerns for the 2024 election.

Hope 2: No Hope (Democrats more likely to mention)

There is no hope! He has done great damage to the USA, created an unbelievable cult, doesn't care about anyone but himself, is ignorant, lazy, and losing his mind/memory.

Hope 3: Working for Americans, Focusing on the Job (Neither party more likely to mention)

My greatest hope for a Donald Trump presidency is he addresses all major and minor issues facing the country.

Hope 4: Getting the Country Back on Track/Back to Normal (Republicans more likely to mention)

We can get back on track with energy independence, closing up our borders, bringing American companies back from overseas, investing in American manufacturing and bolstering the economy

Hope 5: Addressing Undocumented Immigration and the “Deep State” (Republicans more likely to mention)

All the damage done by the Biden/Obama presidency is quickly undone. The Founding Father’s Constitution for our country is restored and clarified as the law of the land. ALL illegal aliens are immediately rounded up and deported. Election manipulators and corrupt politicians are rounded up and punished accordingly.

Hope 6: Trump Dies, is Incapacitated, or Forced to Leave Office (Democrats more likely to mention)

That he'll never make it to the White House, even it means him going to prison, dying or suffering a massive heart attack or stroke.

Hope 7: Checks and Balances (Neither party more likely to mention)

Supreme Court rules against him on any of the appeals he & his attorneys request.

Hope 8: Hope that Trump Doesn’t Destroy American Democracy (Democrats more likely to mention)

That he doesn’t destroy democracy and teach and allow others to act like him. That it goes as fast as possible without much damage.

Approve (N=1,064)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job?

	January 2024			June 2023
	Approve	Disapprove	Not Sure	Approve	Disapprove	Not Sure
President Joe Biden	39%	57%	5%	44%	52%	4%
U.S. Supreme Court	41%	48%	11%	41%	47%	12%
U.S. Congress	26%	62%	12%	28%	59%	13%
Department of Justice	42%	44%	15%	N/A
United States Armed Forces	68%	18%	14%	N/A

State of the National Economy and Individual Economic Situation (N=1,064)

Thinking about the state of our national economy, would you rate the nation’s economy as . . .

Thinking about your own economic situation, would you rate your own economic situation as . . .

	Jan. 2024		Oct. 2022		May 2022
	National	Own	National	Own	National	Own
Excellent	5%	6%	4%	6%	2%	6%
Good	25%	30%	17%	28%	19%	35%
Fair	36%	40%	34%	38%	37%	41%
Poor	35%	24%	46%	28%	42%	19%

Finances (N=1,064)

In the past year, has there been a time when you did not have enough money to . . .

	Yes	No	Not Applicable
pay your rent or mortgage?	26%	52%	21%
pay the minimum payment on your credit card, medical, or student loan debt?	30%	53%	17%
buy food for you or your family?	35%	58%	7%
consider buying a home, even though you wanted to?	31%	26%	44%
consider having a child or more children, even though you wanted to?	14%	26%	60%
pay for childcare?	11%	27%	62%
save for big expenses like a college education or retirement?	38%	32%	30%
save for a vacation, new car, or improvements to your home?	52%	35%	13%

Inflation (N=1,064)

Rising prices (also called inflation) are a concern for consumers. How do you think the United States compares to other advanced countries when it comes to inflation in the past year?

More inflation than most	41%
About average	31%
Less inflation than most	14%
Don’t know	15%

Growth (N=1,064)

A growing economy is something most people want. How do you think the United States compares to other advanced countries when it comes to economic growth in the past year?

More growth than most	21%
About average	37%
Less growth than most	27%
Don’t know	15%

Biden Exceed Expectations (N=1,064)

Has President Biden exceeded, met, or fallen short of your expectations for his presidency?

	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Dec. 2021	Apr. 2021
Exceeded expectations	9%	15%	9%	20%
Met expectations	33%	37%	36%	44%
Fallen short of expectations	58%	48%	55%	36%

Jan.

2024

Jan.

2023

Dec.

2021

Apr.

2021

Exceeded expectations

15%

20%

Met expectations

33%

37%

36%

44%

Fallen short of expectations

58%

48%

55%

36%

Biden Issue Performance (N=1,064)

How well would you say that President Biden has handled...

	Very Well	Somewhat Well	Not Too Well	Not Well At All	Don’t Know
the Israeli-Hamas War?	6%	25%	23%	36%	10%
jobs?	17%	25%	19%	33%	6%
climate change?	9%	27%	21%	31%	12%
taxes?	7%	25%	21%	37%	10%
inflation?	9%	21%	18%	46%	5%
immigration?	3%	23%	20%	47%	6%
crime?	6%	26%	17%	40%	11%
the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?	13%	29%	17%	33%	8%

Biden Legitimately Elected (N=1,064)

Do you believe that Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election was legitimate or not legitimate?

	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	Oct. 2022	May 2022	Dec. 2021	Apr. 2021
Definitely Legitimate	42%	40%	43%	47%	46%	49%
Probably Legitimate	17%	17%	15%	11%	12%	10%
Probably Not Legitimate	14%	13%	12%	11%	11%	10%
Definitely Not Legitimate	16%	18%	18%	19%	22%	24%
I’m Not Sure	12%	11%	12%	12%	9%	7%

Group Feelings (N=1,064)

Measured from 0 to 100 with 0 indicating “Coldest” and 100 indicating “Warmest.” Average Score for Each Group Presented Below.

On a scale from 0 (coldest) to 100 (warmest) how do you feel about the following?

	Average Score	Democratic Respondents	Independent Respondents	Republican Respondents
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu	41	32	31	58
Hamas	18	20	23	12
Russian President Vladimir Putin	18	16	17	20
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy	49	64	32	41

Israel Hamas War (N=1,064)

Do you support or oppose . . .

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Neither

Somewhat

Oppose

Strongly

Oppose

The military operation that the state of Israel has undertaken in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023?

23%

20%

32%

12%

14%

The provision of over $10 billion in military aid to the state of Israel in support of their war against Hamas?

15%

21%

29%

15%

20%

Genocide (N=1,064)

The United Nations defines genocide as “an act committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part.” Do you believe that the state of Israel, in its war against Hamas in response to the terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, is committing genocide against the Palestinian people living in Gaza?

Definitely Yes	18%
Probably Yes	32%
Probably No	24%
Definitely No	26%

Ukraine Options (N=1,064)

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the United States has provided more than $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, including anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles, light armor weapons, firearms, and ammunition. Some have argued that further military steps are necessary to defeat Russia. Which of the following measures do you support or oppose the United States carrying out? (May 2022)

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the United States has provided more than $45 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, including anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles, light armor weapons, firearms, and ammunition. Some have argued that further military steps are necessary to defeat Russia while others believe the United States should not provide more assistance. Which of the following measures do you support or oppose the United States carrying out? (Jan. 2024)

	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022
	Strongly Support		Support		Neither Support nor Oppose		Oppose		Strongly Oppose
Providing more weapons and other military assistance to Ukraine.	20%	33%	24%	23%	29%	25%	12%	8%	16%	10%
Carrying out cyber attacks on Russian military targets in Ukraine.	15%	24%	21%	20%	35%	33%	15%	10%	14%	13%
Carrying out cyber attacks on Russian military targets in Russia.	12%	21%	19%	18%	37%	35%	16%	11%	16%	14%
Using the U.S. military to attack Russian military targets in Russia.	4%	8%	9%	6%	32%	32%	26%	23%	29%	31%

Efforts

Since the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2021, federal law enforcement agencies have identified, arrested, and charged hundreds of individuals who they suspect took part. Do you support or oppose continuing the federal effort to identify, arrest, and charge individuals who participated in these events?

	Jan. 2024	Oct. 2022	May 2022	Dec. 2021	Apr. 2021
Strongly Support	38%	40%	42%	46%	52%
Somewhat Support	14%	9%	11%	11%	13%
Neither Support nor Oppose	13%	15%	13%	13%	13%
Somewhat Oppose	7%	7%	6%	6%	7%
Strongly Oppose	20%	20%	21%	19%	10%
Don’t know	8%	8%	7%	6%	5%

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Strongly Support	38%	69%	24%	10%
Somewhat Support	14%	16%	14%	12%
Neither Support nor Oppose	13%	9%	22%	13%
Somewhat Oppose	7%	1%	7%	14%
Strongly Oppose	20%	1%	15%	45%
Don’t know	8%	3%	18%	6%

Harsh or Lenient

Do you think the legal punishments for people who have been convicted for their actions at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2021 have been too harsh, too lenient, or about right?

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Way too harsh	16%	1%	17%	35%
Too harsh	15%	3%	17%	28%
About right	42%	52%	41%	30%
Too lenient	16%	25%	19%	4%
Way too lenient	11%	20%	6%	3%

Pardon

Do you believe those who have been convicted for their actions at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2021 should be pardoned?

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Definitely Yes	16%	1%	12%	36%
Probably Yes	22%	13%	23%	32%
Probably Not	24%	19%	36%	23%
Definitely Not	38%	67%	30%	9%

Trump Charged

As you may know, former President Donald Trump has been indicted on federal charges that he conspired to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Do you think Trump is innocent or guilty of these charges?

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Definitely innocent	23%	3%	16%	50%
Probably innocent	19%	9%	20%	32%
Probably guilty	22%	22%	37%	13%
Definitely guilty	36%	66%	28%	5%

Trump Ballot

A number of states have recently considered whether former President Donald Trump is eligible to be on their state’s presidential ballot based on their interpretation of the 14th amendment, which prohibits any individual who has taken part in an insurrection, or given aid or comfort to insurrectionists, from serving as a federal elected official. Do you support or oppose former President Donald Trump being removed from your state’s 2024 presidential ballot given this provision of the 14th amendment?

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Strongly Support	31%	57%	24%	5%
Support	10%	15%	7%	5%
Neither Support Nor Oppose	16%	17%	26%	9%
Oppose	6%	3%	7%	11%
Strongly Oppose	30%	5%	21%	66%
Don’t Know	6%	3%	15%	3%

Thomas Recuse

According to reports, Ginni Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, emailed state legislators in a number of states asking them to overturn the results of the 2020 election and also urged former President Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, to continue efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Given this, do you think that Justice Clarence Thomas should or should not remove himself from cases related to the 2020 election?

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Definitely Should Remove Himself	37%	64%	32%	8%
Probably Should Remove Himself	27%	27%	34%	24%
Probably Should Not Remove Himself	16%	8%	15%	26%
Definitely Should Not Remove Himself	19%	1%	19%	41%

Trump Dictator

Former President Donald Trump recently said that if elected, he would be a dictator only on the first day of his second term. Do you think that this is a good or bad idea for the country?

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Definitely Good	15%	1%	12%	35%
Probably Good	24%	12%	24%	39%
Probably Bad	16%	16%	18%	16%
Definitely Bad	44%	71%	47%	10%

Next President

From the following list, please select the individual who is next in line to become President of the United States if President Joe Biden is no longer able or willing to serve as President of the United States.

	All (N=1,064)	Democrats (N=431)	Independents (N=209)	Republicans (N=424)
Kamala Harris	89%	91%	81%	90%
Mike Johnson	6%	5%	12%	5%
Patty Murray	2%	2%	3%	1%
Antony Blinken	3%	2%	4%	2%
Janet Yellen	1%	0%	0%	1%

Biden Impeach

Definitely

Yes

Probably

Yes

Probably

Definitely

Do you think that the House of Representatives will impeach President Joe Biden?

18%

55%

21%

Do you think that the House of Representatives should impeach President Joe Biden?

24%

17%

25%

34%

	Definitely Yes	Probably Yes	Probably No	Definitely No
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	All	Dem	Ind	Rep
Do you think that the House of Representatives *will* impeach President Joe Biden?	6%	2%	5%	12%	18%	16%	16%	22%	55%	51%	62%	55%	21%	31%	17%	11%
Do you think that the House of Representatives *should* impeach President Joe Biden?	24%	3%	19%	52%	17%	8%	23%	24%	25%	25%	37%	17%	34%	63%	21%	8%

Why Biden Should Be Impeached

Only asked of respondents that indicated that President Biden should be impeached.

In a sentence or two, please identify the reasons why you believe President Joe Biden should be impeached.

Topic 1: Failure to Protect Border and Enforce Immigration Law

“A dereliction of duty in not following the laws regarding the border and encouraging people to have to work with cartels and make a dangerous trek and possibly be beholden to the cartels.”

Topic 2: General Corruption and Guilt for Crimes

“He sold his office. As a lifetime public servant, how did he become a multi-millionaire? He's a liar.”

Topic 3: Involvement in Hunter Biden Criminal Behavior

“For sharing classified documents with his son Hunter and also dealing in shady deals with Russia.”

Topic 4: General Corruption and Influence-Peddling

“There is evidence of corruption and influence peddling, and he is a doofus.”

Topic 5: General Harm to American Life/Conspiracy Theorizing

“Look at his history: biggest liar, most selfish pervert in existence.”

Topic 6: Failure to Protect the Country Against Foreign Influences

“He sold the US influence to other countries. He took documents out of the White House after he served and probably gave access to the Chinese.”

Topic 7: General Animosity toward Biden/General Claims of Harm to United States

“He is a horrible person.”

“Wants to destroy America.”

Topic 8: General Incompetence and Corruption

“First of all he is the man in charge. He took an oath to keep Americans safe. His policies have directly impacted the deaths of American citizens. His backwards dealings in Ukraine and other countries has our tax dollars going places Trump got us away from. The leash pullers of the Biden regime are really the ones to look at.”

Group Feelings (N=1,054)

Measured from 0 to 100 with 0 indicating “Coldest” and 100 indicating “Warmest.” Average Score for Each Group Presented Below.

On a scale from 0 (coldest) to 100 (warmest) how do you feel about the following?

	Average Score	Democratic Respondents (N=429)	Independent Respondents (N=207)	Republican Respondents (N=417)

Democrats	43	70	30	18
Republicans	41	23	31	68
African Americans	70	77	58	67
Jewish Americans	69	72	57	74
Immigrants	48	62	43	34

Racial Attitudes (N=1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

	Agree	Neither Agree Nor Disagree	Disagree
White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of the color of their skin.	53%	21%	26%
Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated situations.	26%	23%	52%
I am angry that racism exists.	72%	21%	7%
The United States has never been a racist country.	12%	18%	70%
The main cause of the Civil War was the conflict over states’ rights.	41%	28%	31%

Anti-Semitism (N=1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

	Agree	Neither Agree Nor Disagree	Disagree
Jews have too much power in the business world.	18%	35%	46%
Jews are more loyal to Israel than to America.	22%	47%	31%
It is appropriate for opponents of Israel’s policies and actions to boycott Jewish American owned businesses in their communities.	18%	39%	43%

Christian Nationalism (1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

Agree

Neither Agree

Nor Disagree

Disagree

The United States was founded

as a Christian nation.

51%

26%

24%

The United States should always

be a Christian nation.

39%

28%

33%

Christian values should influence

everything our government does

34%

28%

38%

Islamophobia (N=1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

	Agree	Neither Agree Nor Disagree	Disagree
Islamist terrorists find strong support among Muslims.	38%	40%	22%
Muslims are not trustworthy.	19%	35%	46%
Muslims attract more attention due to their aggressive behavior	37%	32%	31%

Racial Identity Centrality (N=1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

	Agree	Neither Agree Nor Disagree	Disagree
The fact that I am [insert R’s race] is an important part of my identity.	48%	32%	20%
Being [insert R’s race] is an important part of how I see myself.	44%	32%	24%
What happens to [Insert R’s Race] in this country has something to do with what happens in my life.	42%	40%	18%

Haley Race (N=1,064)

From the following list, please identify former South Carolina governor and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley’s racial identity.

	All	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
White	25%	27%	20%	25%
Black or African American	3%	2%	5%	4%
Hispanic or Latino	2%	3%	2%	2%
Asian or Asian American	19%	19%	19%	19%
Native American	4%	4%	3%	5%
Middle Eastern	7%	9%	2%	7%
Two or More Races	14%	15%	11%	15%
Don’t Know	25%	21%	38%	23%

Great Replacement (N=1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

	Strongly Agree	Somewhat Agree	Neither Agree nor Disagree	Somewhat Disagree	Strongly Disagree
The growth in the number of immigrants in the country means that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity.	18%	20%	25%	12%	25%
Some elected officials want to increase immigration in order to bring in obedient voters who will vote for them.	24%	19%	28%	9%	20%
The growth in the size of minority communities in the country will NOT result in the declining influence of white Americans.	16%	19%	39%	15%	10%
Racial and ethnic diversity tends to strengthen the character of a nation.	25%	28%	31%	8%	8%

Immigrants and Blood (N=1,064)

Strongly Agree

Somewhat

Agree

Neither Agree nor Disagree

Somewhat

Disagree

Strongly

Disagree

Immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country.

12%

25%

15%

39%

Immigration Policies (N=1,064)

Do you support or oppose . . .

	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Neither Support Nor Oppose	Somewhat Oppose	Strongly Oppose
Allowing refugees and asylum seekers the ability to live and work in the United States for a temporary, but extendable, period of time?	21%	24%	24%	14%	17%
Building a wall along the border with Mexico?	36%	12%	17%	12%	22%
Allowing the children of immigrants (also known as “Dreamers”) who were brought to the United States illegally by their parents to become citizens if they meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes?	35%	28%	17%	8%	12%
Allowing immigrants who are living in the United States illegally to become citizens if they meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes?	27%	25%	19%	11%	19%

Responsible for Migrant Situation (N=1,064)

According to federal officials, since September 2022, more than 2 million refugees and asylum seekers have been caught crossing the U.S. Southern border breaking the record set in 2021. Who do you believe is most responsible for the migrant situation at the U.S. Southern border?

	All	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
President Joe Biden	41%	15%	40%	73%
House Republicans	9%	13%	8%	3%
Senate Democrats	5%	4%	5%	6%
Migrants	17%	21%	21%	9%
Governments in Latin America	28%	47%	26%	8%

Refugee Support (N=1,064)

After reading the following preamble, respondents were randomly assigned to only 1 of the 4 following questions.

As you may know, refugees fleeing conflict-ridden parts of the world can be resettled in the United States to begin a new life. Refugees are often resettled in small groups together so that they have a support network. All refugees who are resettled in the United States are subject to screening to make sure they do not pose a security or a health threat. Now, imagine that your community has been selected as a place for refugees from (insert nation-state here) to be resettled.

	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022	Jan. 2024	May 2022
	Strongly Support		Somewhat Support		Neither Support Nor Oppose		Somewhat Oppose		Strongly Oppose
Would you support or oppose refugees from Venezuela being resettled in your community? (N=261)	17%	26%	22%	17%	34%	32%	12%	9%	16%	17%
Would you support or oppose refugees from Ukraine being resettled in your community? (N=272)	25%	33%	29%	21%	27%	31%	9%	6%	10%	9%
Would you support or oppose refugees from Syria being resettled in your community? (N=268)	19%	26%	11%	17%	39%	30%	12%	11%	20%	16%
Would you support or oppose refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo being resettled in your community? (N=263)	17%	24%	19%	20%	37%	38%	11%	9%	16%	10%

Enslaved (N=1,064)

Were any of your ancestors enslaved in the United States?

Yes	11%
No	67%
Not sure	22%

Enslaved Follow Up (N=111)

Only shown to respondents who answered that their ancestors were enslaved.

On a scale from 0 (uncertain) to 100 (completely certain), how certain are you that one or more of your ancestors were enslaved in the United States or another country?

Average Score

Reparations (N=1,064)

Do you think the federal government should or should not make cash payments to the descendants of slaves?

	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	April 2021
Definitely Should	15%	15%	17%
Probably Should	19%	21%	21%
Probably Should Not	22%	21%	16%
Definitely Should Not	45%	42%	46%

Anti-Reparations (N=752)

Asked only of respondents who answered that the federal government should not make cash payments to the descendants of slaves.

From the list below, please indicate the most important reasons why you believe that the federal government should not make cash payments to the descendants of slaves.

	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	April 2021
Providing cash payments or benefits would be too expensive.	12%	6%	6%
Descendants of Slaves do not deserve cash payments.	29%	28%	38%
African Americans are treated equally in society today.	20%	21%	18%
Impossible to place a monetary value on the impact of slavery.	25%	27%	25%
It would be too difficult to administer a reparations program.	15%	18%	13%

Pro-Reparations (N=312)

Asked only of respondents who answered that the federal government should make cash payments to the descendants of slaves.

From the list below, please indicate the most important reason why you believe that the federal government should make cash payments to the descendants of slaves.

	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2023	April 2021
The United States never paid for the deaths of millions who died in slavery.	11%	22%	13%
Slavery is directly responsible for inequalities between African Americans and whites today.	25%	28%	28%
The United States never followed through on its promise to compensate freed slaves.	25%	24%	20%
Reparations provides meaningful recognition of the pain caused by ongoing discrimination.	22%	13%	22%
Reparations will help African Americans achieve a more just and equitable future.	17%	12%	18%

Higher Education Confidence (N=1,064)

How much confidence do you have that colleges and universities in the United States can . . .

	A Great Deal	Quite a Lot	Some	Not Much	Very Little
Prepare students for successful careers?	14%	25%	37%	14%	10%
Protect freedom of speech on campus?	13%	18%	33%	20%	16%
Ensure the safety of people of color?	14%	22%	39%	18%	8%
Prepare students for citizenship in American democracy?	11%	19%	37%	19%	14%
Ensure the safety of religious minorities?	9%	15%	37%	25%	14%

DEI_Interest (N=1,064)

How much have you read, seen, or heard about the phrase Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (“DEI”)?

A Lot

21%

Some

31%

Not Much

21%

I have not heard of the phrase

“Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” (DEI).

28%

DEI Training (N=1,064)

From the following list, please indicate if you believe the following professions should or should not receive Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) training?

	Definitely Should	Probably Should	Probably Should Not	Definitely Should Not
Medical Professionals	40%	31%	11%	18%
Teachers	41%	30%	11%	18%
Police Officers	46%	27%	10%	17%
Members of the U.S. Armed Forces	40%	30%	12%	18%
Public Employees	36%	34%	12%	18%
Private Sector Employees	28%	37%	16%	20%

DEI Policies (N=1,064)

Do you support or oppose . . .

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Neither Support Nor Oppose

Somewhat

Oppose

Strongly Oppose

Film and television executives considering racial, ethnic, and gender diversity in their casting decisions?

17%

19%

35%

11%

17%

The National Football League’s (NFL) “Rooney Rule” which requires each NFL team to interview at least two external racial minority candidates for an open head coaching position?

13%

20%

43%

16%

Sexism (N=1,064)

Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each statement.

Agree

Neither Agree

Nor Disagree

Disagree

Women seek to gain power by getting control over men.

29%

33%

38%

Women are too easily offended.

41%

27%

32%

Women exaggerate problems they have at work.

28%

33%

39%

Abortion Emergency (N=1,064)

A number of states have enacted legislation that prohibits women from obtaining an abortion, but provides an exception for health care providers to perform abortions if it is deemed that the pregnancy represents a “medical emergency.” From the following list, please identify all of the circumstances that you believe should be deemed a “medical emergency” allowing health care providers to perform an abortion.

	All	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
The pregnancy will result in the death of the mother	77%	84%	71%	73%
The pregnancy will result in complications that will prevent the mother from participating in normal day-to-day activities permanently	54%	69%	50%	40%
The pregnancy will result in the mother becoming unable to have children in the future	42%	56%	43%	26%
The pregnancy will result in complications that will require the mother to stay in the hospital for an extended period of time, but with prospects for a full recovery	29%	44%	25%	14%
The fetus will not be able to survive outside the womb	67%	79%	61%	56%
The fetus will have a life-threatening condition after birth	59%	76%	53%	44%
The fetus will have a serious, but not life-threatening, condition after birth	34%	50%	26%	20%
Abortions should never be performed	11%	3%	18%	17%

Who Determines Emergency (N=1,064)

Who do you believe should make the final decision about whether an abortion is medically necessary? Please select all that apply.

	All	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Health Care Provider	45%	48%	41%	43%
State Attorney General	3%	2%	2%	5%
State Supreme Court	7%	6%	6%	10%
U.S. Supreme Court	9%	8%	11%	10%
The Pregnant Woman	53%	70%	47%	38%
Don’t Know	16%	7%	29%	21%

SC Transparency (N=1,064)

Do you support or oppose . . .

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Neither Support Nor Oppose

Somewhat

Oppose

Strongly

Oppose

Allowing cameras to film and broadcast oral arguments heard by the U.S. Supreme Court?

35%

27%

Popular Culture v. Political Knowledge (N=1,064)

We are interested in how quickly and accurately people can answer questions about current events. Please indicate whether each statement is true or false.

	True	False
Amy Coney Barrett is a U.S. Supreme Court Justice.	78%	22%
Mike Johnson is the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.	76%	24%
The Democratic Party holds the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.	38%	62%
Nikki Haley won the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucuses.	19%	81%
Tucker Carlson is no longer with Fox News.	81%	19%
Chuck Schumer is the U.S. Attorney General.	25%	75%
George Santos is currently a member of the U.S. House of Representatives.	30%	70%
Mitch McConnell is the U.S. Senate Minority Leader.	75%	25%
Taylor Swift is dating Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs.	33%	67%
Margot Robbie starred in last summer’s Barbie movie.	84%	16%
Matthew Perry, who recently died, was most famous for his role in Seinfeld.	26%	74%
Beyonce and Jay-Z are divorced.	31%	69%
Argentine soccer star Lionel Messi joined Inter Miami of Major League Soccer.	61%	39%
Luke Combs is a famous actor.	26%	74%
Jeremy Renner was injured in a snow plow accident.	73%	27%
Buffalo Bills player Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field after a tackle	79%	21%

Demographic Breakdown of 2024 University of Massachusetts Amherst January National Poll (N=1,064)

Men	49%
Women	51%
18-29	19%
30-54	38%
>55	43%
HS or less	39%
Some Coll.	18%
Coll. Deg.	31%
Postgrad	12%
<$40K	37%
$40K-$100K	40%
>$100K	23%
Democrat	43%
Independent	22%
Republican	35%
Liberal	29%
Moderate	39%
Conservative	33%
White	67%
African American	13%
Hispanic	17%
Asian	3%
Biden	52%
Trump	48%

[i] We identified the major reasons for hope/fear for both Trump and Biden using structural topic modeling, a method for identifying thematic patterns in texts. We estimated a model with 8 topics, and used the words most associated with each topic, responses highly associated with each topic, and the partisan group most likely to employ the topic, to interpret the meaning of the topics. The topics are not mutually exclusive: responses can belong to more than one topic.

[ii] We identified the major reasons offered by respondents who indicted that President Biden should be impeached (N=404) using structural topic modeling, a method for identifying thematic patterns in texts. We estimated a model with 8 topics, and used the words most associated with each topic and responses highly associated with each topic to interpret the meaning of the topics. The topics are not mutually exclusive: responses can belong to more than one topic.