Massachusetts Senate Race | Massachusetts Poll - November 3, 2025

Download TOPLINES and CROSSTABS here

• Highlights

Massachusetts Resident Opinion Poll assessing primary participation, knowledge of the candidates, and changes to election processes.

New UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll Finds Markey Challengers Face Uphill Battle in 2026 Senate Race

New statewide survey shows that Moulton, Rikleen and others will find it difficult to unseat the popular longtime senator in the 2026 Democratic primary

• Press Release 

The full press release can be downloaded here or found at the UMass Amherst Office of News & Media Relations.

• Poll Contact

Tatishe Nteta ([email protected])

• Methods

Field Dates: October 21 –29, 2025    |    Sample: 800 Respondents; 416 Likely Democratic Primary    |    Margin of Error: 4.1% (All Respondents); 6.1% (Democratic Likely Voters)

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll was conducted via YouGov interviewed 800 adults from Massachusetts, 416 of which were likely Democratic primary voters, providing two samples of interest. These respondents were sampled based upon a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of Massachusetts adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the main sample, the cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight for the main sample. For the 416 Massachusetts likely Democratic primary voters, a sampling frame of 2022 Vote Smart Massachusetts Democratic primary voters was employed. The cases were post-stratified on a three-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), and race (2-categories), to produce the final weight for this sample of Democratic primary voters.