Presidential Election 2024 National Poll - October 22, 2024

• Download TOPLINES and CROSSTABS here

• Highlights

Harris Leads Trump 48-46 Nationally and 50-43 Among Women

This national poll, which included a separate set of results from female respondents based on an oversample of women, finds 7 in 10 voters are concerned about election violence and nearly two-thirds fear violence is more likely if Trump loses on Nov. 5

• Press Release

Find the full press release can be found at the UMass Amherst Office of News & Media Relations.

Download the press release here.

• Poll Contact

Tatishe Nteta (nteta@umass.edu)

• Methods

Field Dates: October 11 - 16, 2024

Sample: 1,500 Respondents; 1,036 Female Respondents 

Margin of Error: 3.1% for All Respondents; 3.8% for Female Respondents

YouGov interviewed 1816 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1500 to produce the final dataset. This consisted of two samples; A Main sample of 1224 individuals from the US general population matched down to 1000. An Oversample of 592 women from the US general population matched down to 500. Respondents in each sample were matched to a sampling frame on gender (main sample only), age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the oversample of women respondents, this sampling frame was based on a women subset of the modeled frame of US adults. In each sample, the matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender (main sample only), race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership (main sample only). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights for each sample were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender (main sample only), age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories). Both samples were the combined and an additional post-stratification on gender, 2020 presidential vote, and political party identification were conducted separately to produce an overall sample weight. In addition, a second weight was produced for the women in the overall sample (1036). This was produced with a similar process.