Project 2025 National Poll

Download TOPLINES and CROSSTABS here

Poll Contact: Tatishe Nteta (nteta@umass.edu)

• Methods

Field Dates: July 29, 2024 - August 1, 2024  |  Sample: 1,000 Respondents  |  Margin of Error: 3.8%

YouGov interviewed 1,123 nationally representative respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on region (4-categories), 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories) and a two-way stratification of race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight