State of the State & Presidential Election Massachusetts Poll - October 25, 2023

October 25, 2023

 

Word cloud (right): In a word or two, what do you think is the most important issue facing Massachusetts?

Download word cloud at toplines and crosstabs link below

stateofstateMApolloct2023wordcloud
Table of contents

Toplines and Crosstabs

Press Release

Poll Highlights and Methods

Poll Contact: Tatishe Nteta (nteta@umass.edu)

  • Poll Highlights

New UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll Finds an Independent Kennedy Candidacy Pulls More Voters from Trump than Biden in 2024

Statewide survey also finds strong support for potential ballot initiatives and election reforms, high approval for Sen. Elizabeth Warren as she seeks a third term

  • Methods

Field Dates: October 13, 2023 – October 20, 2023  |  Sample: 700 Respondents  |  Margin of Error: 5.1%

YouGov interviewed 788 respondents from Massachusetts who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a

politically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership status (own, rent,other). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post- stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice, home ownership status (3-categories), a two-way stratification of age (4-categories)and race (4- categories), as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age(4-categories), race (4- categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.