Weekly Update (June 23, 2020) on the Cumulative U.S. Death Predictions from COVID-19

New and Expanded COVID-19 Forecast Hub Website

AMHERST, Mass. – Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, is available to discuss the updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state. A new website for the COVID-19 Forecast Hub provides additional information about the forecasting partnership and other relevant material.

The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by July 18 is 139,000, with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than 134,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 146,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state: https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub/

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, represents multiple models from teams of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions. In addition to gathering models to make easy side-by-side comparisons of different forecasts, Reich’s team has implemented an “ensemble” forecast that offers a more accurate picture of the future than any single model can project. 

Reich says: “Our national-level ensemble forecast combines models from 21 different research groups and predicts that as a nation we will continue to see between 3,600 and 4,000 new COVID-19 deaths each week over the next month, with around 139,000 deaths by July 18. It continues to be vitally important to monitor multiple models, as they each use different approaches to detect changes in how COVID-19 is spreading in the U.S.”

For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab