Weekly Update (July 14, 2020) on the Cumulative U.S. Death Predictions From the COVID-19 Forecast Hub

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AMHERST, Mass. – Weekly update (July 14, 2020) on the cumulative U.S. death predictions from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, is available to discuss the updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state.

The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by Aug. 8 is 157,000, with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than 152,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 168,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, represents multiple models from teams of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions.

Reich says: “Our national-level ensemble forecast combines models from 23 different research groups and predicts that as a nation we will see between 4,800 and 6,000 new COVID-19 deaths each week over the next month, with around 157,000 deaths by Aug. 8.

“Our ensemble predicts that three states will see over 1,000 more COVID-19 deaths in the next four weeks than they reported in the previous four weeks: Florida, California and Texas.”

For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab.