Weekly Update (Generated July 21, 2020) on the Cumulative U.S. Death Predictions From the COVID-19 Forecast Hub

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AMHERST, Mass. – Weekly update (generated July 21, 2020) on the cumulative U.S. death predictions from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, is available to discuss the updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state.

The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by Aug. 15 is 164,000, with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than 160,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 170,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, represents multiple models from teams of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions.

Reich says: “Our national level ensemble forecast combines models from 22 different research groups and predicts that as a nation we will see between 5,500 and 6,400 deaths each week with around 164,000 deaths by Aug. 15.”

For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab.