Weekly Update on COVID-19 Forecast Hub’s Cumulative U.S. Death Predictions

Topic:        Weekly update on COVID-19 Forecast Hub’s cumulative U.S. death predictions

Expert:      Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence
                  and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the
                  School of Public Health and Health Sciences

Available:  Via phone, email and web video conferencing
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Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, is available to discuss the updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state. 

The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by June 13 is about 113,000, with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than about 107,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 121,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state: https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub/

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, now represents 41 models (up from 36 last week) from 22 teams (up from 20 last week) of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions. In addition to gathering models to make easy side-by-side comparisons of different forecasts, Reich’s team has implemented an “ensemble” forecast that offers a more accurate picture of the future than any single model can project.

Reich says: “As we move forward into a very uncertain phase of the COVID-19 outbreak, it is vital that we be critical consumers of models. By looking at models from different research groups, we can improve our understanding of the range of possible future outcomes.

“The ensemble is currently an equally weighted average of the predictive distributions from nine different models.”

For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab