Weekly Update on COVID-19 Forecast Hub’s Cumulative U.S. Death Predictions

Topic:          Weekly update on COVID-19 Forecast Hub’s cumulative U.S. death predictions

Expert:        Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence
                    and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health
                    and Health Sciences

Available:   Via phone, email and web video conferencing

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Nicholas Reich, director of the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence and associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, is available to discuss the updated projections, four weeks out, for number of COVID-19 deaths nationally and by state.

The new forecast for cumulative U.S. deaths by June 20 is 123,000, with a 10% chance of seeing fewer than 117,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 130,000. Interactive visualizations also show the breakdown of projected deaths by state: https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub/

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, curated by Reich and his team, represents multiple models from teams of highly respected infectious-disease forecasters from prominent institutions. In addition to gathering models to make easy side-by-side comparisons of different forecasts, Reich’s team has implemented an “ensemble” forecast that offers a more accurate picture of the future than any single model can project. 

Reich says: “At this critical juncture in our nation’s COVID-19 response, when many states are making decisions to loosen restrictions on society, individual models are saying quite different things about what comes next at the state level. All COVID-19 models are learning on the go right now. This is why being critical consumers of these models is vital. Looking at the full range of possible futures presented by these different teams is an important tool to better understand our uncertain future.”

For more information, follow Reich on Twitter @reichlab