Impact of the VC winter-spring offensive, February 28, 1968

Ellsberg’s in-depth analysis of the Tet Offensive, suggesting an eventual United States defeat. Ellsberg notes how all the reports of pacified villages and provinces set up a series of Potemkin villages that ultimately led to the success of the surprise offensive, and that any illusion of progress is now shattered. He predicts that under current policy, the VC will permanently occupy the areas they now control, and the ARVN will be forced to protect only cities and abandon the countryside to the VC until they asphyxiate from the slow strangle.

Will Le