Skip to main content

I ran a regression with the total amount of bilateral aid an origin country receives as a baseline. In this analysis, bilateral aid is the total amount of aid that an origin country receives from all of the OECD countries combined. The results reaffirm the literature’s consensus that aid, as a whole, increases migration. In 2007 to 2010, the model estimates that every one percent increase in total aid received results in a 0.106 percent change in migrant stock. The small coefficient confirms that there is an indirect link between aid and migration. From the time period 2011 to 2015, the relationship is the same with a slightly larger magnitude of 0.173. This positive relationship between migrant stock, as a dependent variable, and bilateral aid given is also seen in Barthelemy et al.’s paper in 2009, however their results show a larger coefficient of 0.31. The larger coefficient is due to a different methodology: they separate the data into different country income groups and use a three-stage least squares model using two equations describing wage differentials and one regarding the cost of migration.