Lecture: Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)
Professor Richard Palmer of the UMass Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering delivers this lecture, titled "A Decision Support System for Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)," as part of the Fall 2009 Operations Research/Management Science Seminar Series. All are invited to attend.
During this lecture, Palmer will investigate the value of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) and energy price forecasts in the operation of a hydropower system. Forecasts of streamflow and energy prices are used to schedule the quantity and timing of reservoir releases for daily, weekly, and seasonal operations while meeting regulatory constraints. A decision support system is described that incorporates two integrated operating models: a simulation model that replicates general operating rules for the hydropower system and an optimization model that refines operations based upon forecasts of state variables. The decision support system provides a series of recommendations for the quantity and timing of reservoir releases to optimize the economic value of the electrical energy produced, while balancing requirements and concerns related to flood control and environmental flows. The decision support system generates a range of optimal reservoir releases though the use of an ensemble streamflow forecast and identifies robust operational solutions. The results from the investigation of the value of forecasts show how the decision support system can be used to improve operations of the reservoir system.
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This series is organized by the UMass Amherst INFORMS Student Chapter. Support for this series is provided by the Isenberg School of Management, the Department of Finance and Operations Management, and the John F. Smith Memorial Fund.
