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P. Geoffrey Allen, Emeritus Professor

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My research is on various aspects of decision-making under uncertainty. My current research interests are in econometric forecasting and time series analysis in general. The philosophy is that better decisions will arise out of better forecasts and better forecasts will result from using improved strategies when specifying structural economic models.

Recent Works

P. Geoffrey Allen, Moonyoung Baek, and Bernard J. Morzuch. “Is Aggregation Necessarily Bad? (with Apologies to Grunfeld and Griliches).” Presented at the 28th International Symposium on Forecasting, June 22-25, 2008, Nice, France Online at http://www.forecasters.org/submissions08/AllenGeoffreyISF2008.pdf

P. Geoffrey Allen and Robert Fildes, “Refining the unit-root test principle: when will its use improve forecasts and when not?” presented at the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting, June 24-27, 2007, New York, New York [Abstract p. 43] Available at http://www.umass.edu/resec/faculty/allen/docs/ISF2007%20paper%20final.pdf

P. Geoffrey Allen and Bernard J. Morzuch, “Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years? International Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2006) 475-492.

P. Geoffrey Allen and Robert Fildes, "Levels, differences and ECMs - Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 67(2005): 881-904.
Download paper, appendix

James J. Murphy, P. Geoffrey Allen, Thomas H. Stevens and Darryl Weatherhead, "A Meta-Analysis of Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Valuation," Environmental and Resource Economics , 30 (2005): 313-325.

Recent Activities

My principal outreach activity is to administer the UMass Tax School, a series of workshops for professional tax practitioners held in various locations in Massachusetts

208A Stockbridge Hall
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, MA 01003
(413) 545-5715
allen "at" resecon.umass.edu

Ph.D. University of California, Davis, 1974

Coordinator, UMass Tax School

Past-president, International Institute of Forecasters