P. Geoffrey Allen, Professor
Recent Publications |
Recent Activities |
Curriculum Vitae
My research is on various aspects of decision-making under uncertainty. My current research interests are in econometric forecasting and time series analysis in general. The philosophy is that better decisions will arise out of better forecasts and better forecasts will result from using improved strategies when specifying structural economic models. A related topic is information assembly. Included here are duplication of published results, use of different tests or data sets on existing models, and extracting conclusions from groups of related studies or meta-analysis. I am also interested in the relations between forecasting, measuring the degree of risk and resource use. I teach a course in small business management.
Recent Publications
P. Geoffrey Allen and Robert Fildes, "Refining the unit-root test principle: when will its use improve forecasts and when not?" presented at the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting, New York City, New York, June 24-27, 2007.
P. Geoffrey Allen and Robert Fildes, "Levels, differences and ECMs - Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , forthcoming.
Download paper, appendix
P. Geoffrey Allen and Bernard J. Morzuch, "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?" paper presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, June 12-15, 2005, San Antonio, Texas.
James J. Murphy, P. Geoffrey Allen, Thomas H. Stevens and Darryl Weatherhead, "A Meta-Analysis of Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Valuation," Environmental and Resource Economics , 30 (March 2005): 313-325.
P. Geoffrey Allen and Bernard J. Morzuch, "Importance of choice of error structure and model misspecification on the accuracy of prediction intervals from Holt-Winters models," presented at the 24th International Symposium on Forecasting, Sydney, Australia, July 4-7, 2004.
Recent Activities
My principal outreach activity is to administer the UMass Tax School, a series of workshops for professional tax practitioners held in various locations in Massachusetts.
