Computer Model to Identify Older, High-Risk Drivers Being Developed at UMass Amherst

June 5, 2008

Contact:

Heather Rothenberg 413/577-4304

AMHERST, Mass. – Heather Rothenberg of the University of Massachusetts Amherst is developing a computer model that will identify older drivers with a high risk for severe accidents based on their driving histories. This information could then be used by state agencies to develop measures to improve safety, such as additional road and vision tests. This research will also address how to provide transportation for older drivers who lose their licenses.

“Massachusetts law prohibits the Registry of Motor Vehicles from treating drivers differently based solely on their age, which means no accelerated license renewal cycle or additional road and vision tests for older drivers,” says Rothenberg. “The idea behind the development of this model is to provide a way for state agencies to target high-risk drivers and develop safety programs based on risk factors rather than age.”

Rothenberg is a doctoral candidate at UMass Amherst and a project coordinator and lead analyst in the UMass Traffic Safety Research Program (UMassSAFE), a multidisciplinary highway safety research organization within the Transportation Center at UMass Amherst. Rothenberg’s research is based in part on established projects, including $180,000 from the Massachusetts Executive Office of Transportation and Public Works, and $100,000 from the New England University Transportation Center, housed at MIT.

According to the U. S. Census Bureau, people age 65 or older accounted for 12 percent of the U. S. population in the year 2000, a figure that is expected to grow to 20 percent by 2050. National studies have indicated that the percentage of fatal or incapacitating injuries increases with age, a trend confirmed by data from Massachusetts. For occupants age 25 to 64, 10 percent of injuries are fatal or incapacitating, compared to 12 percent for occupants age 65 to 84 and 15 percent for occupants age 85 and over.

“Some of the factors we will be working into the model go beyond past accidents,” says Rothenberg. “How do previous citations predict high-risk drivers? What’s the weight of previous suspensions? If you have a lot of problems with speeding, aggressive behavior and crashes as a younger driver, how will that history predict your future record as an older driver?”

Rothenberg will also study restrictions for older drivers used in other states. In some states, for instance, older drivers have to take road tests, some have a shorter renewal cycle for licenses, and some have additional vision tests. Massachusetts state law currently mandates that state licensing procedures cannot discriminate against older drivers in any way.

“One of the things we’re looking at is what kind of changes should be made to existing Massachusetts policy to enable the Commonwealth to implement what has worked in other places,” says Rothenberg. She adds that the development of licensing practices specifically aimed at improving the safety of older drivers requires careful thought to ensure that methods are effective in identifying high-risk older drivers, and that the rights of older drivers are protected throughout the process.

Another issue Rothenberg will be studying in other states is how they provide dependable, accessible transportation for older drivers who lose their licenses. In Washington State, private taxi companies give older drivers discounted fares in exchange for the added business they provide. In Washington, D.C., and other places, seniors can use public transit for free or reduced fares.

“These are the kinds of suggestions I might make for Massachusetts,” says Rothenberg. “I’m in favor of policy based on very concrete scientific evidence. We shouldn’t make policy for emotional reasons. The goal should be saving lives, and we will provide information to support that.”

Rothenberg’s research is supported by the UMass Transportation Center, and is conducted under the guidance of Michael Knodler, a professor of civil and environmental engineering.

#311-08

E-mail story to a friend Printer-friendly version