Research aimed at US climate policy wins Baker $430k CAREER award

Erin Baker, assistant professor in Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, has received a five-year, $430,000 award from the National Science Foundation CAREER program to continue research designed to influence the government’s future investments in the most cost-effective energy technologies for carrying out the nation’s climate-change policies.

“The overall purpose of my research is to inform climate-related energy technology, primarily at the national government level,” says Baker. “This is a two-step process. First we analyze energy technologies, and then we communicate that analysis.”

Through her research, Baker aims to give government policy makers the tools to create the best possible technology portfolio for cutting greenhouse emissions cost-effectively. Over the past two years of research funded by the Department of Energy, Baker has consulted almost 30 scientists and engineers about possible failures and breakthroughs in seven energy technologies: solar, nuclear, carbon capture and sequestration, bio-electricity, batteries, biofuels, and wind and solar grid integration. Her work in this area has already made her a frequently consulted expert for media sources covering alternative energy technologies.

Now, Baker will take the data collected on these seven technologies and work that information into two different types of computer models. The first model is similar to what pharmaceutical companies use to determine which new drugs they should be investing in to maximize profits. “But instead of maximizing profits, we will maximize the social benefit of energy technologies by minimizing the cost of research and development investment, the cost of emissions reduction and the damage from climate change,” says Baker. “This model should determine which energy technology portfolio will accomplish this.”

Baker will use a second model to combine the economics of climate change with the science of climate change. She is using a pre-existing assessment model called DICE (Deterministic Integrated Climate Economy Model). “The name DICE drives home the point that, when it comes to climate change, our country has really been rolling the dice,” says Baker.

Baker’s research is introducing a key variable that policy makers have largely ignored in the past: the role of uncertainty in decision making. In this case, Baker means our uncertainty about the amount of future damage from climate change, as well as our uncertainty about the future failures and breakthroughs in energy technologies. Without taking into consideration these complex uncertainties, policy makers can make serious errors about which combination of energy technologies would be the wisest to invest in.

The final part of Baker’s project is how to communicate her findings. “We are looking at something called Interactive Simulation, a fairly simple computer program that will have our uncertainty data built into it and will visually represent the future impact of different technology portfolios,” says Baker.

For example, a congressional staff member could use the Interactive Simulation to try out different technology portfolios using different combinations of energy alternatives and see how each portfolio is likely to impact greenhouse emissions 20 years from now. The simulation would also project how various portfolios might impact the cost of a specific greenhouse gas policy. Using the simulation, policy makers can determine the most cost-effective combination of technologies to invest in.

“Our hope is that this interactivity will allow policy makers to make better decisions about their investments in the best possible technology portfolio,” says Baker.

CAREER awards are given to young faculty members to recognize and support the early career development activities of those teacher-scholars who are most likely to become the academic leaders of the 21st century, according to the NSF. Baker is the 19th faculty member from the College of Engineering to be awarded a CAREER award or its equivalent.

February 14, 2008.

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