New Methods - Speakers and Presentations
Sunday, October 15, 10:45-11:45 a.m.
"Causal Inferences with Group Based Trajectory Models" Presentation outline is available by clicking here.
Daniel S. Nagin , Heinz Professor of Public Policy and Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
Daniel S. Nagin is Teresa and H. John Heinz III Professor of Public Policy and Statistics at the Heinz School, Carnegie Mellon University. His research focuses on the evolution of criminal and antisocial behaviors over the life course, the deterrent effect of criminal and non-criminal penalties on illegal behaviors, and the development of statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data. Nagin has participated in two MacArthur Foundation Networks-the Network on Adolescent Development and Juvenile Justice and the Network on Economic Inequality and Social Interactions. He is on the editorial board of six journals, and served on numerous national committees and advisory boards and served as Deputy Secretary for Fiscal Policy and Analysis in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue from 1981 to 1986. Nagin is an elected Fellow of the American Society of Criminology and of the American Society for the Advancement of Science and the 2006 recipient of the American Society of Criminology Edwin H Sutherland Award (for research contributions).
Abstract: "Causal Inferences with Group Based Trajectory Models"
A central theme of research on human development and psychopathology is whether a therapeutic intervention or a turning point event, such as a family break-up, alters the trajectory of the behavior under study. This talk describes a method for using observational longitudinal data to make more confident causal inferences about the impact of such events on developmental trajectories. The method draws upon two distinct lines of research: Work on the use of finite mixture modeling to analyze developmental trajectories and work on propensity scores. The essence of the method is to use the posterior probabilities of trajectory group membership from a finite mixture modeling framework to create balance on lagged outcomes and other covariates established prior to t for the purpose of inferring the impact of first-time treatment at t on the outcome of interest. The approach is demonstrated with an analysis of the impact of gang membership on violent delinquency based on data from a large longitudinal study conducted in Montréal.
Selected Publications:
Haviland, A., Nagin, D. S., & Rosenbaum, P. (in press). Gang membership and teen violence: An observational study.
Nagin, D. S. 2005. Group-based Modeling of Development. Cambridge, MA.: Harvard University Press.
Nagin, D.S. and R. E. Tremblay. 2005. "Developmental Trajectory Groups: Fact or a Useful Statistical Fiction?." Criminology, 43:873-904.
Nagin, D.S. and R. E. Tremblay. 2005. "What has been learned from group-based trajectory modeling?: Examples from physical aggression and other problem behaviors." Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 602: 82-117.
Haviland, A. and D.S. Nagin. 2005. "Causal Inferences with Group-based Trajectory Models." Psychometrika, 70:1-22.
Nagin, D. S., J. Rebitzer, S. Sanders, and L. Taylor. 2002. "Monitoring, Motivation and Management: The Determinants of Opportunistic Behavior in a Field Experiment." American Economic Review, 92: 850:872.
Nagin, D. S. and R. E. Tremblay. 2001. "Parental and Early Childhood Predictors of Persistent Physical Aggression in Boys from Kindergarten to High School." Archives of General Psychiatry, 58(4): 389-394.
Nagin, D. S. 1999. "Analyzing Developmental Trajectories: A Semi-parametric, Group-based Approach." Psychological Methods, 4: 139-177.
Nagin, D. S., and R. E. Tremblay. 1999. "Trajectories of Boys' Physical Aggression, Opposition, and Hyperactivity on the Path to Physically Violent and Nonviolent Juvenile Delinquency." Child Development, 70: 1181:1196.
Roeder K., K. Lynch, D.S. Nagin. 1999. "Modeling Uncertainty in Latent Class Membership: A Case Study in Criminology." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94: 766-776.
