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Historical Keeping Quality Forecast

 CURRENT | 2013| 2012|  2011 | 2010  | 2009  |  2008  |  2007  |  2006 |  2005  | 2004  |  2003  |  2002  |  2001  |  2000

2013 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2013 is for VERY POOR keeping quality.

We calculated 2 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. We were awarded 1 point for February sunshine hours and 1 point for April precipitation.

What does this mean?  If you take no steps to manage fruit rot disease, you could end up with a high incidence of fruit rot at harvest and particularly during storage of the fruit.  Inoculum produced during the current growing season might exponentially increase during the following year, meaning that more fungicide applications will be required to reduce the inoculum load for subsequent crops. Careful disease management this season can overcome this prediction.

This is a year that you should definitely not reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications. If you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can still reduce your fungicide inputs in spite of the forecast.

If you have any questions, you can call me at 774-238-0698 or email me at fcaruso@umass.edu if you have any specific questions or concerns about a particular bed. I'll be driving cross-country from July 3-9, and I'll be moving westward in time zones, concluding in the Pacific Zone (3 hours difference).

Frank L. Caruso, Extension Plant Pathologist

2013 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

As of April 1, there is only 1 point out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2013 Massachusetts cranberry crop. The sole point was awarded for favorable sunshine hours in February. Consequently, the forecast is for POOR keeping quality. The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied should NOT be reduced, and close attention should be paid where fruit rot has been a major or regular concern. This should be a good year for holding late water because we have had a more typical winter, avoiding severe temperatures along with adequate water for the winter flood and sufficient snow cover over long stretches of time. Minimal ice sanding was done this winter due to a lack of sufficient ice thickness beyond a few days. Sanding is one of the best cultural control strategies, as it covers overwintering inoculum, so the lack of sanding resulted in a minimal reductive effect. At any rate, expect the worst regarding fruit rot in what appears to be a much more typical growing season than we had in 2012. If you have any questions, please contact me (extension 18) or Carolyn (extension 25).

FRANK CARUSO,
EXTENSION PLANT PATHOLOGIST

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2012 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2012 is for VERY POOR keeping quality if fungicides or late water are not used. We calculated 2 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. We were awarded 1 point for March precipitation and 1 point for April precipitation. This is a year that you should definitely not reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications. If you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can still reduce your fungicide inputs in spite of the forecast. As usual, call me if you have any specific questions or concerns about a particular bed.

Frank L. Caruso, Extension Plant Pathologist

2012 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

As of April 1, there is only 1 point out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2012 Massachusetts cranberry crop. The sole point was awarded for favorable rainfall in March. Consequently, the forecast is for POOR keeping quality. The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied should NOT be reduced, and close attention should be paid where fruit rot has been a major or regular concern. Carolyn did not recommend holding late water because of the earliness of the season we are running about 23-25 days ahead of a normal schedule. At this point it is too late to start late water. There are several factors that could also help contribute to higher levels of fruit rot in 2012. Minimal sanding was done this winter due to a lack of ice. Sanding is one of the best cultural control strategies, as it covers overwintering inoculum. The mild temperatures probably resulted in a reduced mortality of a certain percentage of this overwintering inoculum as well. Should this drought pattern continue (we are currently 7 inches below normal for precipitation for the year), this will be another stress on the plants, possibly contributing to higher levels of fungal infection during bloom. Warmer than average temperatures will only continue this trend of increased susceptibility of the cranberry vines. At any rate, expect the worst regarding fruit rot in what appears to be a very odd growing season. If you have any questions, please contact me (extension 18) or Carolyn (extension 25).

Frank Caruso, Plant Pathology

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2011 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2011 is for POOR keeping quality.
We calculated 4 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. We were awarded 1 point for sunshine hours in February, 2 points for March sunshine hours, and 1 point for March precipitation. We received no additional points beyond the Preliminary KQF. This is a year that you should probably not reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications. If you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can still reduce your fungicide inputs in spite of the forecast. As usual, call me if you have any specific questions or concerns about a particular bed.

Frank Caruso, Plant Pathology

2011 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The forecast is for FAIR TO GOOD keeping quality. As of April 1, there are 4 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2011 Massa-chusetts cranberry crop. The 4 points were awarded for favorable sunshine hours in February (1 point), favorable sunshine hours in March (2 points) and
favorable rainfall in March (1 point). The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the
rate of fungicides applied could be reduced, but only in those situations where fruit rot has not been a major issue.

As for the holding of late water, there are no negative indicators that rule against doing it this spring. Growers should determine whether to hold late water based on bed condition: was the bed sanded (and there are some
of these), does the bed show visible winter injury or other stresses (there may be some yellow vine syndrome showing up at this point) and was fruit rot incidence high in 2010? There should be minimal winter injury to vines because most beds were properly flooded with good snow and ice cover during the periods of coldest temperatures. Check the section on late water in the Chart Book for advice regarding whether to use this cultural practice. If you have any questions, please contact me (extension 18) or Carolyn
(extension 25).

Frank Caruso, Plant Pathology


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2010 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2010 is for GOOD keeping quality.

We calculated 7 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. We were awarded 4 points for sunshine hours for the 2009 growing season, 1 point for February sunshine hours, 1 point for April precipitation and 1 point for May
precipitation. This is a year that you should probably be able to reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications. If you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can reduce your fungicide inputs in that situation as well. As usual, call me at 508-295-2212 X 18 if you have any specific questions or concerns about a particular bed.

2010 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

As of April 1, there are 5 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2010 Massachusetts cranberry crop. The 5 points were awarded for favorable sunshine hours from the previous year (4 points) and 1 point was awarded for favorable sunshine hours in February. The forecast is for GOOD keeping quality. The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied could be reduced.

As for the holding of late water, because we are currently two weeks ahead of normal plant phenological development, it is too late to start flooding for late water unless the bed was already flooded in the heavy rains of March 29-30. If the bed still has a significant depth of water, the vines should be totally submerged (see page 3). As for flood duration, call Carolyn DeMoranville (x 25) for advice. Check the section on late water in the Chart Book for advice regarding general information on this cultural practice. If you have any questions regarding the forecast, please contact Frank Caruso at x18.

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2009 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2009 is for POOR keeping quality on bogs where no steps are taken to control fungal diseases.

How did we calculate the forecast? Only 4 of a possible 16 points were achieved this season - 2 for March sunshine (above threshold), 1 for March precipitation (below threshold) and 1 for April precipitation (below threshold).

What does this mean for your bog? It is critical that you properly manage fungal diseases. You should use full recommended rates and numbers of applications for fruit rot fungicides. However, if you held late water, fungicide inputs may be reduced as outlined in the Chart Book.

As usual, call me if you have specific questions or concerns about a particular bed.

2009 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The forecast is for FAIR keeping quality. As of April 1, there are 3 points out of a pos-sible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2009 Massachusetts cranberry crop. The 3 points were awarded for favorable sunshine
hours in March (2 points) and 1 point was awarded for lower rainfall amounts in March. The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied should not be reduced.

As for the holding of late water, there are no definitive indicators pro or con. Growers should determine whether to hold late water based on bed condition: Was the bed sanded (and there are many of these)? Does the bed show visible winter injury or other stresses (there may be some yellow vine syndrome showing up at this point)? Was fruit rot incidence high in 2008? There should be minimal winter injury to vines because most beds were properly flooded at the periods of coldest temperatures. Check the section on late water in the Chart Book for advice regarding whether to use this cultural practice. If you have any questions,
please contact me.
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2008 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2008 is for FAIR TO GOOD keeping quality.

We calculated 5 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. We were awarded 1 point for February sunshine, 2 points for March sunshine, 1 point for April precipitation and 1 point for May precipitation. This is a year that you probably should not reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications. However, if you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can reduce your fungicide inputs in that situation.

2008 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

As of April 1, there are 3 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2008 Massachusetts cranberry crop.  The 3 points were awarded for favorable sunshine hours in February (1 point) and March (2 points).  The forecast is for FAIR keeping quality.  The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May.  Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied should not be reduced.

As for the holding of late water, there are no definitive indicators pro or con.  Growers should determine whether to hold late water based on bed condition: was the bed sanded, does the bed show visible winter injury or other stresses (we did experience a drought last summer and there is a reasonable amount of yellow vine syndrome showing up at this point) and was fruit rot incidence high in 2007?  There was very little sanding done this winter and there should be minimal winter injury to vines.  Check the section on late water in the Chart Book for advice regarding whether to use this cultural practice. 
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2007 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2007 is for POOR keeping quality.

We calculated 3 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast.  This is the fewest points we have had since 2002 (when we had one point!).  We were awarded 2 points for March sunshine and 1 point for May precipitation.  This is a year that you should not reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications.  However, if you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can reduce your fungicide inputs in that situation. 
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2006 FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2006 is for FAIR keeping quality.

We calculated 4 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast.  This is the first year we have had so few points since 2002 (when we had one point!).  We were awarded 2 points for March sunshine, 1 point for March precipitation, and 1 point for April precipitation.  This is a year that you should not reduce your fungicide rates and/or the number of fungicide applications.  However, if you have a bed that had late water held this spring, you can reduce your fungicide inputs in that situation. 

2006 PRELIMINARY KEEPING QUALITY  FORECAST

As of April 1, there is only 1 point out of a possible 10 that favors keeping quality in the 2006 Massachusetts cranberry crop.  The lone point was awarded for favorable rainfall in March.  The forecast is for POOR keeping quality.  The last time we had such a low point total was 2002 when we had zero points.  The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May.  Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied should not be reduced.  Due to the decent condition of the vines coming out of the winter and the ample quantity of available water, this would be a good year to consider holding late water. 
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FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST 2005

The Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2005 is for VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

We calculated 7 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. This is the third year in a row that we had this total. We were awarded 2 points for March sunshine, 2 points for March temperature, 1 point for April precipitation and 2 points for May temperature. This was the second coldest May ever recorded at the Cranberry Station. The mean temperature for the month was 50.9 degrees F; the only May that was colder was 1967 when the mean temperature was 49.3 degrees F. This is a good year to reduce your fungicide rates and the number of fungicide applications. However, if you have a bed that has had above average rates of fruit rot during the past two growing seasons, I would proceed with the normal three fungicide application program. As usual, call me if you have any specific questions or concerns about a particular bed.

Preliminary Keeping Quality Forecast 2005

As of April 1, there are 4 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality in the 2005 Massachusetts cranberry crop. Two points were awarded for favorable sunshine hours for the month of March and two points were awarded for a favorable March mean temperature. The forecast is for FAIR TO GOOD keeping quality. The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied could possibly be reduced except in those beds with a history of above-average fruit rot. Due to the decent condition of the vines coming out of the winter and the ample quantity of available water, this would be a good year to consider holding late water.
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FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST 2004

The Final Keeping Quality Forecast for June 2004 is Very Good to Excellent. We calculated 7 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. This is identical to the total for 2003 except that 4 of the 7 points last year were in the gray area (previous year’s sunshine). This time we had a ‘no doubt’ 4 points for sunshine in 2003. We also were awarded 1 point for March precipitation, 1 point for April precipitation and 1 point for May precipitation. Dry springs are always good. However, this spring was too warm for any points to be garnered for temperature. This is a good year to reduce your fungicide rates and the number of fungicide applications. However, if you have a bed that has had above average rates of fruit rot during the past two years; I would proceed with the normal three fungicide application program.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST 2004
As of April 1, there are 5 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality in the 2004 Massachusetts cranberry crop. Four points were awarded for favorable sunshine hours for the previous year and one point was awarded for favorable March precipitation. The forecast is for GOOD keeping quality. The final keeping quality forecast (issued after June 1) could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April (it certainly has not started out being dry!) and May. Based on the present forecast, fungicide applications and the rate of fungicides applied could be reduced except in those beds with a history of above-average fruit rot. Due to the miserable condition of the vines coming out of the winter, this is not a good year to hold late water.
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FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST 2003
The Keeping Quality Forecast (KQF) for June 2003 for GOOD TO VERY GOOD. We calculated 7 of a possible 16 points to arrive at this forecast. This is the most points we have had sincewe had 8 points in 1997. The factors that contributed to this year's forecast were: (1) 4 points awarded for sunshine from 2002 as discussed in the April 2003 newsletter; (2) 2 points awarded for March sunshine hours; (3) 1 point awarded for May precipitation. have never seen so many close calls for some of the other point getters. We missed getting 2 points for April
temperature by 0.2o. We missed getting 1 point for April precipitation by 0.03 inches. We missed getting points for May temperature by 1.4o. Because of all of these near misses, I am confident that the keeping quality will lean towards being very good. This appears to be a good year to reduce your fungicide rates and the number of fungicide applications. However, if this cool and wet weather continues, these are ideal conditions for fungal infection. You should keep that in mind as you plan your fruit rot fungicide programs. As usual, call me if you have any questions or concerns. We will be looking very closely at the current KQF this year in a project funded by the USDA/CSREES Pest Management Alternatives Program. We'll have more to tell you about after this growing season concludes.
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FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST 2002
Thank goodness for the rainfall in April, where-in we did not come close to the normal 6.7 inches that falls that month. As in 2001, rainfall in April accounted for our only point of the sixteen possible keeping quality points. Consequently, the June 1, 2002 Keeping Quality Forecast is VERY POOR (as it was last year). Both April and May were warmer than desired and the May rainfall exceeded the desired amount for additional points. Consequently, this is another year you will need to be very careful with your fungicide usage, particularly if it is a bed for fresh fruit. Fruit quality will be sacrificed if you reduce your fungicide use drastically. Be especially conservative in
those beds that were not managed and sprayed with fungicide last year or in those beds that had significant fruit rot/scald (especially Stevens for the latter). If the summer months are hotter than usual, if there is drought stress, or conversely, if it is a very wet season, we will not see any improvement in the forecast. Things will remain as they are predicted. One of these years, I hope we can return to a decent KQF!
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FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST 2001
As a result, this certainly was a good year to hold late water and I know many of you did so onyour acreage. You will need to be very careful with your fungicide usage, particularly if the fruit is destined for fresh market. Fruit quality will be sacrificed if you reduce your fingicide use drastically.

If the summer months are hotter than usual, if there is drought stress, or conversely,if it is a very wet season, we will not see any improvement in the forecast. Things will remain as predicted.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST 2001
As of April 1, there are 0 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2001 MA cranberry crop. The forecast is for a VERY POOR keeping quality. The final forecast could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on this present forecast, this would be a partiuculaarly good year to hold late water. Unless the forecast improves in June, we do NOT recommend cutting corners on fungicides applications or rates for fruit rot management, particularly in a bed that has a history of higher fruit rot incidence.

Thank goodness for the drought that began in April where no measurable rainfall occurred for 33 days. Rainfall in April accounted for our only point of the sixteen possible keeeping quality points. Consequently, the June 1 forecast is for a VERY POOR keeping quality for the 2001 Massachusetts cranberry crop. Both April and May were warmer than desired and the May rainfall exceeded the desired amount for additional points.
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FINAL KEEPING QUALITY FORECAST 2000

Weather data through June 1 showed a total of 2 points of a possible 16 points that favor VERY POOR keeping quality for the 2000 Massachusetts cranberry crop. Based on the point allotment system, two points were attained only from the values for March sunshine. All other components in the system went the other way.

Consequently, this will not be a growing season to cut corners on fungicide application numbers or fungicide rates. Healthy vines should be maintained as best as one's management scheme allows through rainy perioeds or intervals of inadequate precipitation. If you have any questions on fruit rot management, please call me. This will be a growing season with many diffiuclt decisions to make, and this forecast make some of these decisions even harder.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST 2000
As of April 1, there are 2 points out of a possible 10 that favor keeping quality for the 2000 MA cranberry crop. The only positive contributing factor was the sunshine hours for March. All other factos went the other way. The forecast is for a POOR TO FAIR keeping quality. The final forecast could be upgraded if we have a cool and dry April and May. Based on this present forecast, this would be a partiuculaarly good year to hold late water. See the February and April 2000 newsletters for specifics on holding the late water flood. Unless the forecast improves in June, we do NOT recommend cutting corners on fungicides applications or rates for fruit rot management, particularly in a bed that has a history of higher fruit rot incidence.
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