Number of Dairy Farms: a Historical Picture of Massachusetts and the U.S.

Figure 1 shows that Massachusetts has been losing about 40 dairy farms each year, on average. This translates to an average rate of decline of 5.5 percent for the period 1970 through 2007. There was a relatively stable period from 1973 through 1981. The rate of decline since 1981 has been more rapid at 6.6 percent. The Northeast Dairy Compact was in effect from July 1997 through September 2001. However, there was no statistical difference in the rates of decline during the Compact period. While the Compact bolstered the farm price, input price increases and the demographics of dairy farm operators led to additional declines despite benefits from the Compact. By 2007, the number of farms had fallen to 230. There is growing concern now that Massachusetts could lose its remaining farms quickly given the current economic climate. Loss of dairy farms means losing part of the Commonwealth's agricultural landscape.

Although these trends are alarming for many in Massachusetts, we are not alone. Nationwide, the number of dairy operations has been declining at an annual rate of 5.9 percent, slightly higher than the rate of decline for Massachusetts. Overall, the United States has been losing an average of 15,577 dairy farms per year (see Figure 2) since 1970. Visual comparison of the Massachusetts and US trends does suggest that the US decline may be leveling off.

Are there regions of the U.S. that have seen gains in the number of dairy farms? Figure 3 compares trends for a number of USDA production regions. Since 1970, all regions of the United States have witnessed a decline in number of dairy operations. The Northeast region, including the New England states, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware, has lost about 60,000 farms during this period. The Lake States (Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan), the Corn Belt, and Appalachia have each lost more than 100,000 dairy farms. The Lake States region has traditionally been known as " America 's Dairyland."

Figure 4 shows estimated annual rates of decline for all the USDA production regions. The greatest annual rates of decline have occurred in the Delta 10.0 percent, Southeast 8.9 percent and Appalachia 8.5 percent regions. The Pacific (California, Oregon and Washington), the Lake States and the Northeast have had the lowest rates of decline. The Pacific region has lost dairy farms at an annual rate of 4.9 percent. Despite loosing more than 100,000 dairy farms, the annual rate of decline in the Lake States region was 4.6 percent. The Northeast rate of decline was at 4.0 percent annually, lowest in the nation.

Figure 5 shows the current distribution of dairy farm numbers across the U.S. The Lake States region remains "America's Dairyland" with 31 percent of U.S. dairy farms. The Northeast has a quarter of the nation's dairy farms.

Figure 6 illustrates the 2007 distribution of the Northeast regions dairy farms. The Northeast is dominated by Pennsylvania and New York with 47 and 35 percent of the region's dairy farms, respectively. Massachusetts has just one percent.

 

Source: Figures were constructed using data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.