Number of Dairy Farms: a Historical Picture of Massachusetts and the U.S.

Figure 1 shows the trend in Massachusetts dairy farm numbers. Massachusetts has been losing about 42 dairy farms each year, on average. This translates to an average rate of decline of 5.3 percent for the period 1970 through 2004. Estimates of the number of dairy farms suggest a stable period from 1973 through 1981. The rate of decline since 1981 has been more rapid with a rate of decline of 6.5 percent. From the mid-90s into the early part of this century, the decline appears to have slowed a bit. The Northeast Dairy Compact was in effect from July 1997 through September 2001. However, there was no statistical difference in the rates of decline during the Compact period.¹ While the Compact bolstered the farm price, input price increases and the demographics of dairy farm operators led to additional declines despite benefits from the Compact. By 2004, the number of farms had fallen to 270 and the declines have continued in recent years bringing the number of dairy farms to fewer than 200. There is growing concern now that Massachusetts could lose its remaining farms quickly given the current economic climate. Loss of dairy farms means the loss of a part of the Commonwealth’s agricultural landscape.

Although these trends are alarming for many in Massachusetts, the Commonwealth’s dairy industry is not alone. Nationwide the number of dairy operations has been declining at an annual rate of 5.9 percent, slightly higher than the rate of decline for Massachusetts. Overall, the United States has been losing an average of 14,693 dairy farms per year (see Figure 2). Visual comparison of the Massachusetts and US trends does suggest that the US decline may be leveling off.

Are there regions of the U.S. where there have been gains in the number of dairy farms? Figure 3 compares trends for a number of USDA production regions. These trends illustrate what has happened across the U.S. Over the past 30 years, all regions of the United States have witnessed a decline in the number of dairy operations. The Northeast region, including the New England states, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware, has lost about 60,000 farms during the past three decades. During the same period, the Lake States ( Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan), the Corn Belt, and Appalachia have each lost more than 100,000 dairy farms. The Lake States region has traditionally been known as “ America’s Dairyland.”

Figure 4 shows estimated annual rates of decline for all the USDA production regions. The greatest annual rates of decline have occurred in the Delta (9.9 percent), Southeast (9.2 percent) and Appalachia (8.7 percent) regions. The Pacific ( California , Oregon and Washington), the Lake States and the Northeast have had the lowest annual rates of decline in dairy farm numbers. The Pacific region has lost dairy farms at an annual rate of 4.9 percent. Despite loosing more than 100,000 dairy farms, the annual rate of decline in the Lake States region was 4.5 percent. The Northeast rate of decline was at 4.1 percent annually, the lowest annual rate of decline in the nation.

Figure 5 shows the current distribution of dairy farm numbers across the U.S. The Lake States region remains “ America ’s Dairyland” in terms of dairy farm numbers with 31 percent of the total U.S. dairy farms. The Northeast has nearly a quarter of the nation’s dairy farms (24 percent).

Figure 6 illustrates the current (2004) distribution of the Northeast regions dairy farms. The Northeast is dominated by Pennsylvania and New York with 47 and 35 percent of the region’s dairy farms, respectively. Massachusetts has just one percent of the region’s dairy farms.

 

Source: Figures were constructed using data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

¹The magnitude of the difference in rates of decline was not large enough for us to conclude such a difference did not occur by chance.